Identification of key parameters controlling dissolved oxygen migration and attenuation in fractured crystalline rocks

In the crystalline rocks of the Canadian Shield, geochemical conditions are currently reducing at depths of 500-1000 m. However, during future glacial periods, altered hydrologic conditions could potentially result in enhanced recharge of glacial melt water containing a relatively high concentration of dissolved oxygen (O2). It is therefore of interest to investigate the physical and geochemical processes, including naturally-occurring redox reactions, that may control O2 ingress. In this study, the reactive transport code MIN3P is used in combination with 2k factorial analyses to identify the most important parameters controlling oxygen migration and attenuation in fractured crystalline rocks. Scenarios considered are based on simplified conceptual models that include a single vertical fracture, or a fracture zone, contained within a rock matrix that extends from the ground surface to a depth of 500 m. Consistent with field observations, Fe(II)-bearing minerals are present in the fractures (i.e. chlorite) and the rock matrix (biotite and small quantities of pyrite). For the parameter ranges investigated, results indicate that for the single fracture case, the most influential factors controlling dissolved O2 ingress are flow velocity in the fracture, fracture aperture, and the biotite reaction rate in the rock matrix. The most important parameters for the fracture zone simulations are flow velocity in the individual fractures, pO2 in the recharge water, biotite reaction rate, and to a lesser degree the abundance and reactivity of chlorite in the fracture zone, and the fracture zone width. These parameters should therefore receive increased consideration during site characterization, and in the formulation of site-specific models intended to predict O2 behavior in crystalline rocks.     

基于灰建模的瓦斯含量多变量预测模型研究

研究了GM(1,N)、GM(0,N)瓦斯含量预测模型的数学原理,收集郑煤集团告成矿地质勘探期间及生产期间的瓦斯含量实测资料,获得16个可靠点,选取基岩厚度、新生界厚度、煤层厚度、煤层水分、煤层灰分、50m顶板含砂率6个因素作灰色建模预测的指标,分别建立了GM(1,6)和GM(0,6)瓦斯含量多变量预测模型。根据计算和评价结果,GM(1,6)和GM(0,6)瓦斯含量预测模型精度均能够满足工程精度的要求,说明利用灰色模型来预测瓦斯含量是可行的。由于前者精度略高于后者,故建议告成矿采用GM(1,6)模型来进行未知地区煤层瓦斯含量的预测。需要注意,由于模型没有考虑构造的影响,在实际预测时,还应根据构造对待预测区的影响关系和影响程度对模型的预测结果进行修正。     

Leaching behavior of heavy metals from municipal solid waste incineration bottom ash and its geochemical modeling

With the increase in the number of municipal solid waste incineration (MSWI) plants constructed in China recently, great attention has been paid to the heavy metal leaching toxicity of MSWI residues. In this study, the effects of various parameters, including extractant, leaching time, liquid-to-solid ratio, leachate pH, and heavy metal content, on the release properties of Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn from MSWI bottom ash were investigated. Partial least-squares analysis was employed to highlight the interrelationships between the factors and response variables. Both experimental research and geochemical modeling using Visual MINTEQ software were conducted to study the pH-dependent leaching behavior of these metals in fresh and weathered bottom ash, considering precipitation/dissolution and surface complexation reactions (adsorption by hydrous ferric oxide and amorphous aluminum oxide/hydroxide). The results showed that leachate pH was the predominant factor influencing heavy metal leachability. The leaching of Cu, Pb, and Zn was mainly controlled by precipitation/dissolution reactions, whereas surface complexation had some effect on the leaching of Cr, Cd, and Ni for certain pH ranges. The modeling results aggreed well with the experimental results. Part of this work was presented at the Fourth International Conference on Combustion, Incineration/Pyrolysis and Emission Control (i-CIPEC)     

Long Term Trends in Concentration of Major Pollutants (SO<Subscript>2</Subscript>, CO,NO, NO<Subscript>2</Subscript>, O<Subscript>3</Subscript> and PM<Subscript>10</Subscript>) in Prague – Czech Republic (Analysis of Data Between 1992 and 2005)

To assess the effect of changes in traffic density and fuels used for heating at the beginning of the 1990s, 1992–2005 monthly averages of PM₁₀, SO₂, NO₂, NO, CO and O₃ from Prague, the Czech capital, were analyzed together with long term trends in emissions of major pollutants, fuel consumption and number of vehicles registered in Prague. The data from all monitoring stations were retrieved from the database of the state automated monitoring system. Correlation coefficients between ambient monthly averaged temperature and all pollutants of concern showed distinct seasonal trends. The results showed that while SO₂ and to some extent also CO concentrations dropped namely in the first half of the analyzed period (1992–1997) as a result decreased fossil fuel consumption for local heating, the behaviour of other pollutant concentrations followed a different pattern. PM₁₀ concentrations decreased during the beginning of the 1990s but showed a sign of increase after 2000. Concentrations of ozone and NO₂ did not reveal any significant change throughout the whole studied period. It can be concluded that during the studied period traditional urban sources of pollution, such as coal and oil combustion, lost their importance but were simultaneously substituted by pollutants from automotive transport (namely PM and NO₂) making the problem of air quality even worse.     

Comparison of Microscopic and Macroscopic Modeling Approaches for Subsurface Contaminant Transport

The practice of contaminant transport and remediation has shown significant progress in recent years. However, despite the significant progress made, remediation efforts are often delayed by extremely long breakthrough curve tails that render efforts to bring the level of contaminants below the regulatory standards inefficient. One hypothesis is that these long tails are due to the reservoir-like slow diffusive processes in soil micropore zones. This study compares the effects of micropores at macroscopic and microscopic levels and establishes a link between these approaches for validation and calibration purposes. The link between macroscopic and microscopic levels is established through comparisons and testing of the two models while incorporating appropriate scale and boundary effects. Despite the differences in conceptual approaches and simulation time, the two approaches rendered meaningful results. The link helps forecast the effects of micropore zone transport processes in the subsurface efficiently and thus allows development of numerical tools that could contribute towards more efficient remediation design.     

A Framework for Comprehensive,Integrated, Watershed Monitoring in New York City

The International Life SciencesInstitute (ILSI) Risk Science Institute (RSI) convenedan expert panel of scientists to developrecommendations for a comprehensive monitoring programfor the Croton and Catskill/Delaware watersheds, whichprovide drinking water to New York City's residents. This effort was conducted as part of efforts topreserve and enhance the quality of New York City'sreservoir system through a watershed protectionprogram. The panel developed recommendations for astrategic framework on which to construct a monitoringprogram. As part of this activity, the paneldetermined whether existing monitoring activities weredeficient and, where activities were deficient, thepanel developed recommendations for additionalinformation that should be collected.The panel recommended the development and use of anintegrated approach to watershed monitoring, whichdraws on modeling, risk-based planning and analysis,statistical sampling and design, and basic compliancemonitoring. The approach should be designed toprovide an assessment of natural and anthropogenicsources of stress to the system as well as anassessment of water quality trends in response tostresses acting in concert, both over the long termand over the five-year New York City Memorandum ofAgreement (MOA) assessment time frame. It should alsoprovide an assessment of the human health andenvironmental risks posed by a variety of stressors,and the impact of management actions implemented toameliorate stressors.     

Application of fuzzy sets and cognitive maps to incorporate social science scenarios in integrated assessment modelsA case study of urbanization in Ujung Pandang, Indonesia

Decision–support systems in the field of integrated water management could benefit considerably from social science knowledge, as many environmental changes are human-induced. Unfortunately the adequate incorporation of qualitative social science concepts in a quantitative modeling framework is not straightforward. The applicability of fuzzy set theory and fuzzy cognitive maps for the integration of qualitative scenarios in a decision–support system was examined for the urbanization of the coastal city of Ujung Pandang, Indonesia. The results indicate that both techniques are useful tools for the design of integrated models based on a combination of concepts from the natural and social sciences. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

INASUD project findings on integrated assessment of climate policies

This communication summarizes the main findings of INASUD, an European-wide research project on integrated assessment of climate policies. The project aimed at improving the framing of climate policy analysis through the parallel use of various existing integrated assessment models. It provides a comprehensive examination of the link between uncertainty regarding damages and inertia in economic systems. Results show that the Kyoto targets and timing are consistent with the precautionary principle but offers little insurance for longer-term climate protection. Flexibility mechanisms offer potentials for cooperation with developing countries, and are necessary to tap the environmental and economic benefits of joint carbon and sulfur emissions abatement.     

Calculating losses of crops in Denmark caused by high ozone levels

In order to help guide air pollution legislation at the European level, harmful air pollution effects on agriculture crops and the consequent economic implications for policy have been studied for more than a decade. Ozone has been labeled as the most serious of the damaging air pollutants to agriculture, where growth rates and consequently yields are dramatically reduced. Quantifying the effects has formed a key factor in policymaking. Based on the widely held view that AOT40 (Accumulated exposure Over Threshold of 40 ppb) is a good indicator of ozone-induced damage, the Danish Eulerian Model (DEM) was used to compute reduced agriculture yields on a 50 km×50 km grid over Europe. In one set of scenarios, a ten year meteorological time series was combined with realistic emission inventories. In another, various idealized emission reduction scenarios are applied to the same meteorological time series. The results show substantial inter-annual variability in economic losses, due in most part to meteorological conditions which varied much more substantially than the emissions during the same period. It is further shown that, taking all uncertainties into account, estimates of ozone-induced economic losses require that a long meteorological record is included in the analysis, for statistical significance to be improved to acceptable levels for use in policy analysis. In this study, calculations were made for Europe as a whole, though this paper presents results relevant for Denmark.     

The Need for Scale Sensitive Approaches in Spatially Explicit Land Use Change Modeling

This paper introduces some of the issues that are relevant to the spatially explicit modeling of land use systems. A short overview is given of the ways and means in which a number of different land use change models describe the land use system. Specific attention is given to the empirical modeling approach used in the CLUE (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects) modeling framework. This approach is demonstrated for three case studies in China, Ecuador and the Atlantic Zone of Costa Rica. These case-studies illustrate the methodology for multi-scale analysis of land use driving factors and their application in spatially explicit modeling exercises. Model functioning, performance and limitations are discussed. The presented case-studies indicate that empirical modeling results can contribute to a better theoretic imbedding of land use change research in scale sensitive and integrated theories.