Carrots and sticks for new technology: Abating greenhouse gas emissions in a heterogeneous and uncertain world

Many governments use technology incentives as an important component of their greenhouse gas abatement strategies. These carrots are intended to encourage the initial diffusion of new, greenhouse-gas-emissions-reducing technologies, in contrast to carbon taxes and emissions trading which provide a stick designed to reduce emissions by increasing the price of high-emitting technologies for all users. Technology incentives appear attractive, but their record in practice is mixed and economic theory suggests that in the absence of market failures, they are inefficient compared to taxes and trading. This study uses an agent-based model of technology diffusion and exploratory modeling, a new technique for decision-making under conditions of extreme uncertainty, to examine the conditions under which technology incentives should be a key building block of robust climate change policies. We find that a combined strategy of carbon taxes and technology incentives, as opposed to carbon taxes alone, is the best approach to greenhouse gas emissions reductions if the social benefits of early adoption sufficiently exceed the private benefits. Such social benefits can occur when economic actors have a wide variety of cost/performance preferences for new technologies and either new technologies have increasing returns to scale or potential adopters can reduce their uncertainty about the performance of new technologies by querying the experience of other adopters. We find that if decision-makers hold even modest expectations that such social benefits are significant or that the impacts of climate change will turn out to be serious then technology incentive programs may be a promising hedge against the threat of climate change.     

Dispersion of Pollutants in Street Canyon under Traffic Induced Flow and Turbulence

A 3-D Eulerian-Lagrangian approach to moving vehicles is presented that takes into account the traffic induced flow rate and turbulence. The method is applied to pollutants dispersion in a street canyon. The approach is based on CFD calculations using Eulerian approach to the continuous phase and Lagrangian approach to the "discrete phase" of moving objects - vehicles. A commercial CFD code StarCD was used into which the Lagrangian model was integrated. As an example a street canyon is taken into consideration. It has the length of 50 m and the aspect ratio of 1.27. The speed of wind was assigned values of 4, 7 and 12 m/s at the altitude of 300 m. The total height of the domain is 115 m. In the study different traffic situations are considered, namely one-way and two-way traffic with different traffic rates per lane. The predictions show that different traffic situations affect pollutants dispersion in the street canyon and that there are also differences in the pollutants dispersion in case of one- and two-way traffic.     

臭氧-絮凝-活性炭联合工艺处理生活污水实验研究

随着水体污染的日益严重和可利用水资源的减少，人们越来越重视污水回用技术的应用。污水回用对污水处理后水质要求的提高使得传统的氯气处理工艺显得落后。本文开展臭氧与其他工艺联合处理生活污水的效果的研究，研究结果表明，臭氧-活性碳-絮凝-臭氧工艺较为理想。     

A Three-Dimensional Model Study of the Impact of AVOC and BVOC Emissions on Ozone in an Urban Area of the Eastern Spain

This study concentrated on the effects of Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds (BVOC) emissions on ozone (O₃) in an area of the Eastern Spain on June 12, 1997, a day characterised by sea breeze. Simulation of meteorology was performed with the three-dimensional model ADREA-I. Comparisons of the model results with observations have revealed overall a good agreement in temperature and wind velocity. Two runs were performed with UAM-IV for the photochemical calculations. The first simulated the effects of the anthropogenic emissions only (run A) and the second the combined effects of anthropogenic and biogenic emissions, (run B). Comparisons of the model O₃ concentrations with measurements showed a general agreement with the experimental data. Discrepancies between the calculated results and the observations during the early morning hours could be attributed to inaccuracies in nitrogen oxides (NO_x) from the anthropogenic emissions inventory. Comparisons between runs A and B yielded differences up to 30% in the morning, over inland areas. It was deduced that the inclusion of BVOC in total emissions could result in an increase or decrease of tropospheric O₃, depending on the available amounts of anthropogenic emissions.     

Environmental Assessment of the Impact of Ozone to the Neuston of the Sea-Surface Microlayer of the Gulf of Mexico

Substantial amounts of NOx (146 000 t/y) and total hydrocarbons (294 000 t/y) are released to the marine atmosphere by the large number of oil and gas operations over Federal waters of the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). Under appropriate meteorological conditions these emissions react to form ozone (0–54 g/m3 over-water) which can affect the marine environment. Using a dry deposition model, this work examines the amount of ozone derived from oil and gas offshore operations and deposited in the sea surface of the Gulf of Mexico, and assesses its impact on the neuston of the sea-surface microlayer. Surface integrated estimates of ozone deposited from oil and gas operations over the sea surface ranges from 400 kg to 1800 kg which results in sea surface concentrations of 15 g/m3. This estimate and the actual toxic ozone levels suggest no acute, toxic impacts to the neuston. However, indirect effects may occur through changes to the pelagic foodwebs and organic carbon pathways. Another potential pathway for ozone impacting the environment is through the production of bromate. Based on the concentrations and time scales (11–139 days) only sublethal effects appear to occur, but uncertainties associated with this assessment need to be further studied. From an ecological perspective, the environmental impacts and risks of NOx and VOC discharges from offshore platforms need to be assessed for neuston and other components of the marine ecosystem.     

The personal CO2 calculator: A modeling tool for Participatory Integrated Assessment methods

Participatory Integrated Assessment (PIA) is an approach which aims at developing methods which allow to combine evaluations of experts and lay people in the field of Integrated Assessment. Thus, policy recommendations derived from PIA exercises are informed by scientific judgments and by valuations of “non-scientists”. For any PIA methodology the provision of insights, facts and figures about the policy problem at hand is crucial. In this paper we describe a PIA methodology which combines the social science research instrument “focus group” with a specific computer information tool, the “Personal CO₂ Calculator” (PCC). The tool supports citizens in discussing and recommending measures on climate change policy. Based on our experiences, we plead for information instruments that are tuned to and assist concrete target groups with their specific interests. This helps that policy recommendations derived from PIA exercises are based on both scientific knowledge as well as citizens' and stakeholders' policy preferences. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Rural poverty driven soil degradation under climate change: the sensitivity of the disposition towards the Sahel Syndrome with respect to climate

Starting from the basic assumption of the syndrome concept that essentially all of the present problematic civilization–nature interactions on the global scale can be subdivided into a limited number of typical patterns, the analysis of the response of these patterns (syndromes) to climate change can make a major contribution to climate impact research, surmounting the difficulties of more common sectoral ceteris paribus impact studies with respect to their systemic integration. In this paper we investigate in particular the influence of climate on the regional proneness or disposition towards one of the most important syndromes with respect to famines and malnutrition, the Sahel Syndrome. It describes the closely interlinked natural and socioeconomic aspects of rural poverty driven degradation of soil and vegetation on marginal sites. Two strategies of global climate impact assessment on a spatial 0.5°×0.5° grid were pursued: (a) As a measure for the climate sensitivity of the regional proneness, the absolute value of the gradient of the disposition with respect to the global field of 3} 12 monthy normals of temperature, irradiation and precipitation is calculated. (b) The disposition was evaluated for two different climate forecasts under doubled atmospheric CO₂ concentration. For both strategies two new quantitative global models were incorporated in a fuzzy-logic-based algorithm for determining the disposition towards the Sahel Syndrome: a neural-net-based model for plant productivity and a waterbalance model which calculates surface runoff considering vertical and lateral fluxes, both driven by the set of 36 monthly climatological normals and designed to allow very fast global numerical evaluation.Calculation (b) shows that the change in disposition towards the Sahel Syndrome crucially depends on the chosen climate forecast, indicating that the disagreement of climate forecasts is propagated to the impact assessment of the investigated socio-economic pattern. On the other hand the regions with a significant increase in disposition in at least one of the climate scenario-based model runs form a subset of the regions which are indicated by the local climate sensitivity study (a) as highly sensitive – illustrating that the gradient measure applied here provides a resonable way to calculate an upper limit or worst case of negative climate impact. This method is particularly valuable in the case of uncertain climate predictions as, e.g., for the change in precipitation patterns.     

A national ozone biomonitoring program--results from field surveys of ozone sensitive plants in northeastern forests (1994-2000)

Ozone biomonitoring is a detection and monitoring techniquethat involves documenting ozone-induced visible injury toknown ozone-sensitive species under conditions of ambientexposure. The USDA Forest Service administers a long-term,nationwide ozone biomonitoring program to address public andscientific concerns about ozone impacts on forest health. Asystematic grid is used as the basis for biomonitoring sitelocations. At each site, trained field crews evaluate amaximum of thirty plants of up to six species and record the amount and severity of leaf-injury on individualplants. Injury from ozone was found more often on biomonitoring sites in the eastern Unites States than in theinterior or west-coast areas. Further results from thenortheast reveal that in any year, there is a higherpercentage of ozone-injured plants with more severe symptomsin areas with relatively high ozone concentrations than inareas with relatively low ozone. In very dry years (e.g.,1999) the percentage of injured plants and injury severityestimates are both sharply reduced even though ambient ozoneexposures are high. These findings demonstrate thatbiomonitoring data provide meaningful evidence of when highozone concentrations during the growing season have biologicalsignificance. Any assessment of ozone stress in the forestenvironment must include both biomonitoring (i.e., plantresponse) and air quality data to be complete.     

环境空气中大气颗粒物源解析的研究进展

介绍了国内外用于大气颗粒物源解析研究的受体模型的进展情况，对受体模型的研究体系，测量分析技术、研究方法作了详细阐述，并对源解析近期的研究热点及发展趋势作了评述。     

EflFect of long-term ozone fumigation on growth development and yield of spring wheat in open-top field chamber

The experimental plants were grown in open-top chamber and exposed to 0.26 ppm of ozone for six hrs. per day from seedling stage till ripening. The results showed that the height of plants, rates of earing, flowering, grain forming, ripening and the weight/1000 kernels all declined in fumigated plants in comparison with the controls. The yield lost 76.7%. The actual actions of ozone were that it caused foliar injury and chlorophyll destruction accelerating leaf senescence, reduction of assimilation products. O3 was unfavorable injurious to transport and accumulation of substances to the grains after flowering.