长治市冰雹气候特征及预报研究

对1980—2003年长治市冰雹天气的气候背景进行了统计分析，明确了冰雹发生的时空尺度，地理分布，月、年际变化，冰雹发源地以及冰雹主要影响路径；利用500hPa天气图，给出了降雹的天气形势及高空冷空气的活动路径；分析了冰雹天气的0℃层高度、-20℃层高度、水汽条件和稳定度等参数；采用最优子集回归方法对850hPa和500hPa高空指标站进行了选取，分析了这些站点及本站14时（压、温、湿、风）的气象要素，建立了综合性预报模型。     

ASM1改进模型简介及应用

Twostepmantis模型是在ASM1模型基础上发展而成,它可对碳氧化、传统硝化反硝化、同时硝化反硝化过程、好氧反硝化进行模拟。应用Twostepmantis模型,对一序批式活性污泥法(SBR)实验进行模拟预测,结果表明,模型确实可以很有效解释大部分实验数据。     

基于模态参数的桥墩结构损伤识别数值研究

铁路简支梁桥桥墩横向振动时,可简化为墩顶具有集中质量的悬臂梁模型,地基约束用地基弹簧模拟。研究墩身的结构性损伤时,该模型与基底固结的悬臂梁模型原理相同。利用冲击振动试验法可以准确得到桥墩的一阶振型和一阶频率,利用这两个参数可以构造出一阶振型比、特征参数、一阶曲率模态差三个指标。以一混凝土悬臂梁为例,用一阶振型比、特征参数、一阶曲率模态差指标进行结构损伤识别的数值研究,总结了特征参数指标在结构损伤前后的变化规律。分析结果表明几个指标对损伤比较敏感。     

防化服结构和缝制工艺优化设计研究

本文研究了防化服的设计原则,对我国某型防化服装进行了分析,在腰部、袖型、膝部的结构上进行改进,使服装更趋合理、人性化,更便于作业活动。针对防化服影响防护效果的缝制工艺参数,利用二次通用旋转实验设计,变化机针针号、线迹密度及缝纫线细度三个因素五个水平;针对“三防”面料进行防油、防水、防静电测试,得到防护性能与缝制工艺参数之间的回归方程,并绘出等值曲线图,进一步分析了缝制工艺对面料防油、防水、防静电性能的影响,通过Borda数找出最优缝制工艺参数,并将应用到防化服的加工制作中。     

Approaches to Evaluate Water Quality Model Parameter Uncertainty for Adaptive TMDL Implementation1

Abstract: The National Research Council recommended Adaptive Total Maximum Daily Load implementation with the recognition that the predictive uncertainty of water quality models can be high. Quantifying predictive uncertainty provides important information for model selection and decision‐making. We review five methods that have been used with water quality models to evaluate model parameter and predictive uncertainty. These methods (1) Regionalized Sensitivity Analysis, (2) Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation, (3) Bayesian Monte Carlo, (4) Importance Sampling, and (5) Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) are based on similar concepts; their development over time was facilitated by the increasing availability of fast, cheap computers. Using a Streeter‐Phelps model as an example we show that, applied consistently, these methods give compatible results. Thus, all of these methods can, in principle, provide useful sets of parameter values that can be used to evaluate model predictive uncertainty, though, in practice, some are quickly limited by the “curse of dimensionality” or may have difficulty evaluating irregularly shaped parameter spaces. Adaptive implementation invites model updating, as new data become available reflecting water‐body responses to pollutant load reductions, and a Bayesian approach using MCMC is particularly handy for that task.     

SIMULTANEOUS EQUATION SYSTEMS: A CONSISTENT ESTIMATOR FOR UNKNOWN PARAMETERS IN CONFINED AQUIFERS1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents criteria for establishing the identification status of the inverse problem for confined aquifer flow. Three linear estimation methods (ordinary least squares, two-stage least squares, and three-stage least squares) and one nonlinear method (maximum likelihood) are used to estimate the matrices of parameters embedded in the partial differential equation characterizing confined flow. Computational experience indicates several advantages of maximum likelihood over the linear methods.     

PARAMETER ESTIMATION FOR TPLN DISTRIBUTION FOR FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: The principle of maximum entropy (POME) was used to derive an alternative method for parameter estimation for the three parameter lognormal (TPLN) distribution. Six sets of annual peak discharge data were used to evaluate this method and compare it with the methods of moments and maximum likelihood estimation.     

MODERNIZATION OF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVER FORECASTING TECHNIQUES1

The National Weather Service is nearing the conclusion of a five year period of transition from index type catchment modelling to the use of conceptual hydrologic models. The decision to make this technological change was based on an extensive research project in which various catchment models were tested in a wide variety of basins and their strong and weak points ascertained. This project is described. Some of the problems involved in the changeover, which are discussed, are practical parameter optimization methods, computer requirements for the more complex technology, data requirements, fitting of the catchment model to major river systems, training of personnel and staffing problems.     

基于扰动分析方法的AnnAGNPS模型水文水质参数敏感性分析

参数敏感性分析对于水文水质综合模型的构建及推广应用具有重要的意义.本研究基于AnnAGNPS模型机制,选取可能对模型产生影响的地形、水文气象、田间管理、土壤等4大类31个参数,以太湖地区典型低山丘陵小流域——中田河流域为实验区,利用扰动分析方法评价了模型参数对水文水质模拟结果的敏感性.结果表明,11个地形参数中,LS对径流、泥沙与氮磷等模拟结果普遍敏感,RMN、RS和RVC对泥沙输出分别为一般敏感和弱敏感,其余参数不敏感.水文气象参数中CN对模型径流和泥沙输出特别敏感,对其余结果也都比较敏感.田间管理与植被作物肥料参数中CCC、CRM和RR对泥沙和颗粒态污染物输出弱敏感,6个肥料参数(FR、FD、FID、FOD、FIP、FOP)对氮磷营养盐输出特别敏感.土壤参数中,K对模型除径流之外的所有结果都特别敏感,土壤氮磷含量的4个参数(SONR、SINR、SOPR、SIPR)对相对应的氮磷输出结果弱敏感.通过对中田河流域2005~2010年径流量的模拟和校正检验发现,模拟期与校正期年径流量偏差基本都在10%以内,模拟精度优秀.本研究对AnnAGNPS模型构建中的参数选取与校验调整具有直接参考价值,对研究区的径流模拟结果也证明了模型敏感性分析对于调参过程的可行性和该模型在太湖地区低山丘陵流域径流模拟的适用性,对于模型在国内的推广应用具有重要的指导意义.     

牛顿（切线）法求极值在估算水质模型参数中的应用

文章根据水环境容量计算条件,建立了适用于中小河河流一维忽略污染物沉降扣弥散作用的数学模型。建立了由实测值与拱型计算值之差的平方构成的目标函数。通过目标函数,把水质模型参数的估算转变成一个单变量函数求极值的问题。本文采用牛顿（切线）法求极值和计算机技术解决了这个单变量函数求极值问题,解决了在有多排污口存在的河段估算污染物衰减系数K值的难题。该办法的使用提高了水环境容量计算的可靠性和准确度。