Load Estimation Method Using Distributions with Covariates: A Comparison with Commonly Used Estimation Methods

Load estimates obtained using an approach based on statistical distributions with parameters expressed as a function of covariates (e.g., streamflow) (distribution with covariates hereafter called DC method) were compared to four load estimation methods: (1) flow‐weighted mean concentration; (2) integral regression; (3) segmented regression (the last two with Ferguson's correction factor); and (4) hydrograph separation methods. A total of 25 datasets (from 19 stations) of daily concentrations of total dissolved solids, nutrients, or suspended particulate matter were used. The selected stations represented a wide range of hydrological conditions. Annual flux errors were determined by randomly generating 50 monthly sample series from daily series. Annual and interannual biases and dispersions were evaluated and compared. The impact of sampling frequency was investigated through the generation of bimonthly and weekly surveys. Interannual uncertainty analysis showed that the performance of the DC method was comparable with those of the other methods, except for stations showing high hydrological variability. In this case, the DC method performed better, with annual biases lower than those characterizing the other methods. Results show that the DC method generated the smallest pollutant load errors when considering a monthly sampling frequency for rivers showing high variability in hydrological conditions and contaminant concentrations.     

颗粒煤的多扩散系数瓦斯解吸模型及扩散参数反演研究

为研究颗粒煤瓦斯解吸规律,基于Fick定律建立了颗粒煤的多扩散系数瓦斯解吸 模型,完成了颗粒煤瓦斯解吸模型的数值试验。引入了非负约束最小二乘法反演算法（ NNLS）,通过试验数据反演得出颗粒煤的扩散参数的B谱,从而确定出颗粒煤瓦斯扩散 系数D的准确范围。研究结果表明:颗粒煤瓦斯解吸符合Fick扩散定律,颗粒煤的多扩 散系数瓦斯解吸模型能很好地解决单一扩散系数模型的扩散系数随时间衰减的问题,准 确反映了颗粒煤瓦斯解吸规律,单一扩散系数瓦斯解吸模型只是多扩散系数瓦斯解吸模 型的一个特例;NNLS是一种有效的反演算法,利用NNLS方法可以准确反演出颗粒煤瓦斯 解吸过程中的扩散参数的B谱,通过B谱可方便计算出颗粒煤的瓦斯扩散系数。     

Does localized imitation drive technology adoption? A case study on rooftop photovoltaic systems in Germany

The purpose of this paper is to illuminate the spatio-temporal diffusion of rooftop household photovoltaic installations in Germany and to test whether localized imitation drives their adoption. Our study is based on a unique data set of some 576,000 household photovoltaic systems installed in Germany through 2009. We employ an epidemic diffusion model which includes a spatial dimension, and control for temporal and spatial heterogeneity. According to our results, imitative adoption behavior is highly localized and an important factor for the diffusion of household photovoltaic systems.     

动扩散系数新模型下不同粒径构造煤的瓦斯扩散特征

为揭示不同粒径构造煤的瓦斯扩散特征,采用瓦斯解吸仪分别在井下现场和实验室内开展了原煤样和不同粒径的构造煤瓦斯扩散实验,并采用低温氮吸附法测定其孔径分布,采用动扩散系数新扩散模型计算各类扩散实验的初始扩散系数D0及其衰减系数β、有效初始扩散系数De0和有效动扩散系数De(t)。结果表明:各类粒径构造煤的瓦斯扩散率初期增长较快,但衰减迅速。同时刻下,粒径越大,D0越大,β越小,构造煤中孔隙由表及里孔径逐渐缩小,正是这种孔径特征控制了D0和β的大小。同时,粒径越大De0和De(t)越小。与之相反,井下构造煤原煤样具有更小的粒径,致使原煤样的瓦斯扩散速度更快,因此构造煤具有更严重的突出危险性。     

公路隧道内CNG管束气瓶车泄漏天然气扩散CFD仿真

气体管束气瓶车是运输压缩天然气(Compressed Natural Gas, CNG)的重要工具,针对CNG管束气瓶车运输过程中在公路隧道内发生追尾导致泄漏问题,基于计算流体动力学CFD方法,建立CNG管束气瓶车遭追尾致泄漏后果预测与评估模型,对公路隧道内风场条件下泄漏天然气的扩散过程进行模拟与分析,研究CNG管束气瓶车泄漏天然气在隧道内的扩散规律和形成的危险区域范围。仿真结果表明:泄漏天然气扩散具有极速泄漏、外力作用、初期膨胀增长和稳定收缩等特征;喷射气云团能够覆盖肇事车辆前部,可能导致驾驶人员窒息或引发火灾、爆炸事故;实例工况下,泄漏气体扩散至稳态以后,形成爆炸极限浓度范围内的气云分布在肇事车辆前部1.5m至肇事车辆中部之间的区域;进行事故应急响应时,应封锁事故隧道,加强隧道内通风,在消防水枪的稀释掩护下对管束气瓶车进行堵漏作业。     

Dissolved and dispersed petroleum hydrocarbons in the Aegean Sea

The distribution and transportation of Dissolved and Dispersed Petroleum Hydrocarbon (DDPH) were investigated in the Aegean Sea with the hydrodynamics of the water masses of the region. It is clear that distribution of this pollutant is strongly affected by physical dynamics of environment. The data were collected during cruises in November 1994, in the framework of National Marine Measurement and Monitoring Programme in the Aegean Sea. In the present study additionally the Chlorophyll‐a was measured fluorometrically and there is good correlation between petroleum hydrocarbon and chlorophyll‐a in the Aegean Sea. DDPH data was used to search origin of hydrocarbons: biogenic or non biogenic.     

Alkylation of metals and the activity of metal‐alkyls†

The biochemical basis for resistance to metal ion toxicity is emerging though it is complicated by the different resistance mechanisms. Several strategies for resistance to toxic metal ions have been identified:

1. The development of energy driven efflux pumps which keep toxic element levels low in the interior of the cell. Such mechanisms have been described for Cd(II) and As(V).

2. Oxidation (e.g. AsO^2‐ to AsO₄ ^3‐) or reduction (e.g. Hg²⁺ to Hg⁰) can enzymatically and intracellularly convert a more toxic form of an element to a less toxic form.

3. The biosynthesis of intracellular polymers which serve as traps for the removal of metal ions from solution such as traps have been described for cadmium, calcium, nickel and copper.

4. The binding of metal ions to cell surfaces.

5. The precipitation of insoluble metal complexes (e.g. metal sulfides and metal oxides) at cell surfaces.

6. Biomethylation and transport through cell‐membranes by diffusion controlled processes.

In this short review I shall discuss the implications of biomethylation as a detoxification mechanism for microorganisms as well as for certain higher organisms.     

环境治理工程对蠡湖水体中磷空间分布的影响

为评估水环境治理工程措施对蠡湖水体营养状态的影响,2012年4月对湖体与环湖河口调查分析,研究了蠡湖磷元素空间分布特征及其影响因素.结果表明:蠡湖水体总磷浓度介于0.03~0.31mg/L之间,平均为0.06mg/L,呈由西向东逐渐递增的趋势,且环湖河口磷含量明显高于湖体;沉积物中总磷空间分布趋势类似于水体,湖体总磷含量在321.77~1062.08mg/kg之间,平均为593.75mg/kg,而环湖河口总磷含量在523.38~1396.39mg/kg之间,平均为784.51mg/kg;结合历年监测数据可以看出,一系列水环境治理工程使得蠡湖水质有了大幅度的改善,水体中总磷的年均值由治理前0.18mg/L下降到0.06mg/L,但仍没有完全从根本上解决水体的富营养化问题.主要原因是沉积物中总磷对水体影响较大,相关性分析表明磷的扩散通量与沉积物总磷和可交换态磷成显著正相关.     

Chemical Behaviour of Calcium in Stabilized Oil Ash Reef Blocks After Five Years in the Ocean

Abstract

Reef blocks made from stabilized oil ash were taken from the sea after five years in the ocean to examine the chemical behaviour of calcium. Experiments included (1) determination of the calcium leaching rate and a comparison with the rate for unexposed blocks to test the validity of a diffusion model for predicting long term (5 years) leaching rates, (2) determination of the effect of biological cover (shell) on the leaching rate, (3) determination of the leaching rate of the core of exposed reef blocks, (4) determination of the calcium content in ‘ring areas’ - regions of discoloration observed in sectioned exposed reef blocks, and (5) determination of the leachable fraction of the total calcium in exposed reef blocks. Results showed the presence of a pronounced calcium discontinuity zone located 3–7 cm from the outside surface of the reef blocks. Cumulated calcium release rates ranged from 2.81–3.14 μmol cm^?2 day^?1 for original unexposed reef blocks and the core of exposed (in the ocean for five years) blocks, respectively, to 0.47–0.50 μmol cm^?2 day^?1 for outside (facing sea water) surfaces of exposed reef blocks. Tank leaching studies also showed that the presence or absence of hard biological cover (shells) had little or no effect on the calcium release rate. the diffusion model normally used in modelling the chemical behaviour of calcium cannot be used to predict the long term (five years) leaching of calcium. the core of the exposed blocks released calcium at a rate similar to new, unexposed reef block material. Overall, it appears that the calcium discontinuity zone is probably responsible for restricting the release of calcium and hence the failure of the diffusion model.     

城市扩展下大气污染物浓度的空间格局变化趋势研究--以乌鲁木齐市为例

城市环境污染是由于人类的生产和生活活动造成,而不断的城市扩展势必导致环境污染物浓度的空间变化。乌鲁木齐市作为中国西部的内陆城市,由于特殊的地理位置和能源结构,在发展经济的同时也造成了严重的大气环境污染,也给人们的生产生活带来了严重的影响。为了治理污染当地政府采取了一系列措施。分析了2004-2009年城市3个不同区域（市南区、市中区和市北区）大气环境质量监测点位的数据,研究了在城市不断扩展的前提下,污染物浓度在空间上的迁徙变化趋势。结果表明,PM10、SO2和NO2污染最严重的时段均出现在冬季采暖期（12月至来年1月）,主要是因为采暖消耗大量原煤和高逆温频率所致。其峰值分别达到0.379、0.510、0.120 mg·m-3。随着城市空间结构的不断北扩,PM10和SO2的浓度呈现出向北迁徙的趋势,原本污染最严重的市南区浓度逐步下降,而市北区呈现出不断增加的态势。NO2浓度则表现出不断南迁的趋势,即原本 NO2浓度高的市北区变化不大,而市南区和市中区则呈现出快速增加的态势。说明大气环境中的污染物浓度随着城市空间结构的调整和人类活动频率的不断增加,正发生着空间上迁徙变化。由于污染排放源的差异性,导致大气污染物浓度在空间上的不同。通过分析得出,乌鲁木齐市的大气环境污染主要是“煤烟型”污染,随着产业的空间分布和城市的扩展,污染物浓度在空间上呈现出了不同的迁徙变化特征,是今后城市发展和环境治理值得关注的问题。