Estimation of Normal Variance Based on Balanced and Unbalanced Ranked Set Samples

In this paper we address the problem of estimation of the variance of a normal population based on a balanced as well as an unbalanced ranked set sample (RSS), which is a modification of the original RSS of McIntyre (1952).We have proposed several methods of estimation of variance by combining different unbiased between and within estimators, and compared their performances     

Identifying socioeconomic and biophysical factors driving forest loss in protected areas

Protected areas (PAs) are a commonly used strategy to confront forest conversion and biodiversity loss. Although determining drivers of forest loss is central to conservation success, understanding of them is limited by conventional modeling assumptions. We used random forest regression to evaluate potential drivers of deforestation in PAs in Mexico, while accounting for nonlinear relationships and higher order interactions underlying deforestation processes. Socioeconomic drivers (e.g., road density, human population density) and underlying biophysical conditions (e.g., precipitation, distance to water, elevation, slope) were stronger predictors of forest loss than PA characteristics, such as age, type, and management effectiveness. Within PA characteristics, variables reflecting collaborative and equitable management and PA size were the strongest predictors of forest loss, albeit with less explanatory power than socioeconomic and biophysical variables. In contrast to previously used methods, which typically have been based on the assumption of linear relationships, we found that the associations between most predictors and forest loss are nonlinear. Our results can inform decisions on the allocation of PA resources by strengthening management in PAs with the highest risk of deforestation and help preemptively protect key biodiversity areas that may be vulnerable to deforestation in the future.     

电脑散热风扇灰尘中多溴二苯醚的污染特征和环境健康风险评价

不同模型对土壤污染物空间分布预测精度具有重要影响,针对现有方法不能较好模拟土壤污染物较强的空间变异特征以及缺乏对影响污染物空间分布的关键环境因子识别,本研究基于随机森林（RF）模型,通过融合多源环境要素,开展了某冶炼厂周边农田土壤砷含量空间分布预测研究,并与反距离加权（IDW）和逐步线性回归模型（STEPREG）相比较.结果表明,研究区农田土壤砷污染范围较广,污染严重区域主要分布在研究区南部,3种模型模拟的砷污染空间分布虽总体趋势相似,但局部区域差异明显,IDW和STEPREG模型不能很好地反映研究区土壤污染的强空间变异特征,RF模型模拟结果较好的表达局部高污染区域的细部变化.不同环境要素对农田土壤砷含量空间分布影响的重要性不同,研究区环境变量和地形变量是影响土壤砷含量空间分布的关键环境因子.交叉验证结果表明,RF模型相对IDW和STEPREG模型具有最小的均方根误差（RMSE）、平均绝对误差（MAE）、平均误差（ME）和最大的R²,RF模型的RMSE、MAE、ME较IDW模型分别降低了10.8%、5.5%和88.1%,较STEPREG模型分别降低了17.8%、18.4%和94.7%,表明采用RF模型对研究区农田土壤砷含量预测精度最高,取得了最优的预测效果.本研究结果能够为土壤重金属污染空间分布制图提供方法学参考.     

Experimental study on pollutant movement in surf zone

The experiments on pollutant movement in surf zone were conducted on the two gentle beaches(with slope of 1:100 and 1:40, respectively), for diverse wave cases. The movement contours and direction of pollutants, under the action of regular and random waves with diverse wave amplitudes, were provided and studied in this paper. It was shown that, due to complicated hydrodynamics in surf zone, the pollutant movement state is quite complicated and different from that in pure current zone.     

基于随机抽样推测法的LPG储槽2次爆炸事故的模型研究

在借鉴LPG储槽2次爆炸事故后果不确定分析成果的基础上,对事故过程中的不确定参数进行重新分析与选择,将孔洞上方液位高度h0,气云的TNT当量系数α,泄漏开始到点火源出现之前的持续时间t亦作为不确定分析的参数,并利用随机抽样推测的不确定分析方法,对VCE与BLEVE 2次事故后果进行重新分析,获得了与前人研究成果差异较大的结果,并由此分析这些参数对于事故后果影响的显著性。同时对2次爆炸事故的伤害距离进行了研究与分析,由于LPG的闪蒸以及参数α的影响,本案例中LPG泄漏量为总量的80%-90%以上时,2次事故的死亡半径相等且达到最小。     

全球主要森林系统中植被汞分布特征及其影响因素

基于过去20a全球森林植被中汞循环过程的相关研究,本文通过荟萃分析法阐明全球主要森林类型中植被汞分布特征及其影响因素.结果表明,汞在植被中浓度排序特征(以中值计)依次为凋落物(38.9ng/g)>叶片(24.1ng/g)>树根(18.5ng/g)>树皮(13.2ng/g)>树枝(12.0ng/g)>树干(3.1ng/g...     

基于《电力设施抗震设计规范》的地震动随机模型参数研究

依据《电力设施抗震设计规范》(GB50260-96)中的设计反应谱,对随机地震动功率谱参数的取值进行了具体研究。首先,采用时间包络函数考虑地震的非平稳特性,给出了地震动持时的取值;然后,根据加速度峰值等效原则,迭代计算得到地面的加速度功率谱密度曲线;最后,选定Clough-Penzien修正过滤白噪声模型作为拟合函数,通过非线性拟合技术拟合了与《规范》中的地震烈度、场地类别相对应的谱参数。研究结果表明,Clough-Penzien修正过滤白噪声模型能较好地拟合其曲线形状。本文给出了相对于规范中的地面加速度功率谱参数值,可供这种模型作为地震地面运动输入时选用。     

Identifying forest ecosystem services through socio-ecological bundles: a case study from northern Jordan

This study aims to identify services provided by forest ecosystems based on locals’ perceptions in the northern part of Jordan. By better understanding preferences of locals and by understanding why they value certain services more heavily, policy-makers and planning managers can make more effective decisions regarding development and conservation. Three hundred respondents were interviewed in order to collect information about forest ecosystem services (ES). Data collection was conducted using a structured questionnaire regarding ES provided by three forest types situated in northern Jordan. ES trade-offs and socio-ecological bundles were identified by analyzing respondents’ socioeconomic demographics and preferences of forest ES through multivariate canonical corresponding analysis (CCA). The statistical analysis indicated that the socioeconomic factors and forest type have an effect on social preferences toward ES. Results displayed a clear trade-off between provisioning services and regulating and cultural services. CCA demonstrated that 73% of the variation in ES value is explained by social factors (i.e. education level, income level, and gender), while 26% of perception variation was attributable to categories of ES supplied by each forest ecosystem. These findings imply that involving people in the place-specific management of public forests using the ES approach gives managers a clearer understanding of the benefits people recognize and value, as well as those they either are not aware of or do not value. Such information is useful in forest management and in public outreach. Although direct policy applications are limited by the research’s nature, the paper provides a starting point for incorporating forest users’ voices into policy discussions and management design.     

威海荣成鹿角菜野生种群遗传多样性及资源保护策略

利用随机扩增多态性DNA（RAPD）方法对威海荣成地区鹿角菜（Silvetiasiliquosa）野生种群共30个个体的遗传多样性水平及遗传结构进行研究。结果表明,利用21条随机引物共检测到112个多态性位点,多态性位点百分率为93．75％,Nei基因多样性指数为0．3515±0．1352,Shannon多样性指数为0．5046±0．1126。通过聚类分析而划为一类的3个亚种群间的遗传分化指数为0．1349～0．2189,基因流为1．7793。研究结果表明威海荣成地区的鹿角菜种群遗传多样性较高,种群内存在较为明显的遗传分化,种群遗传资源不受遗传漂变的影响。针对当地鹿角菜遗传资源的现状,应加强现存种群的就地保护,恢复种群规模;进行取样养殖保护时则需避免因近交而造成种群资源退化。     

气温变化对西南山区流域森林水文效应影响的模拟

为了揭示气温变化对西南山区流域森林水文效应的影响,用生物物理/动态植被模型SSiB4/TRIFFID与流域地形指数水文模型TOPMODEL的耦合模型SSiB4T/TRIFFID模拟了西南山区长江上游梭磨河流域森林水文效应对气温变化的响应,分析了气温变化对植被不同演替阶段的流域总径流和总蒸发以及冠层截流蒸发、植被蒸腾和土壤蒸发的影响。结果表明,（1）梭磨河流域森林（常绿针叶林）蒸腾与草和灌木差异小,森林蒸腾潜热比草和灌木仅高1~4 W.m-2,森林冠层截留蒸发高于草和灌木,但土壤蒸发明显低于草和灌木覆盖,森林覆盖流域总蒸发低于草和灌木覆盖甚至低于裸土蒸发,因此增加了流域总径流量,但森林增加径流的作用随土壤蒸发的减小而减小。（2）气温减小1℃将通过减小森林冠层截留蒸发和蒸腾而使森林增加流域总径流量的作用增加;相反,气温增加将增加森林冠层截留蒸发和蒸腾而使森林增加总径流量的作用减小。（3）当温度增加4℃,由于森林总蒸发较草和灌木明显增加,对于较高的土壤蒸发,森林增加总径流量的作用已不明显;对于较低的土壤蒸发,森林减小了流域总径流量。