风险分析基本方法探讨

面对未来不利事件的不确定性,对其情景的认识只能进行风险分析。人们研究出了许多的风险分析方法,但基本方法只有5种:发生概率计算法、暴露评价法、危险辨识法、期望值计算法和经验合成法。它们的共同点是:(1)明确具体风险内涵,框定风险问题涉及的系统;(2)涉及风险源、影响和后果;(3)进行不确定意义下的量化分析。由此我们总结出风险分析基本原理,并确认了自然灾害风险分析基本原理和自然灾害风险分析的基本模式。     

基于渗流-应力耦合分析的野鸡尾尾矿坝稳定性研究

基于渗流场与应力场耦合机理,对柿竹园野鸡尾尾矿坝进行稳定性研究。研究渗流-应力的耦合效应,提出了渗流-应力耦合以及渗流体积力计算的实施方案;建立二维的有限元渗流-应力耦合计算模型,分析了考虑耦合效应时的尾矿坝渗流场、位移场、应力场;最终分析了不同耦合关系对于渗流量、位移场、等效渗透集中力以及应力场的影响。研究结果表明:当前水力条件下,尾矿坝稳定性良好;尾矿坝主要受水平渗透力作用,初期坝坝顶、坝脚以及坝底等处应力集中;尾矿坝的渗流-应力作用不容忽视,不同的耦合关系对于x方向位移、渗透力的预测影响巨大;考虑渗流-应力耦合关系得到的主应力、剪应力以及竖向位移,比不考虑耦合效应时大。     

基于几何参数的优化对双层柱面网壳结构动力性能的影响

以双层柱面网壳为研究对象,采用参数化设计语言APDL对AN SY S进行二次开发,实现了任意跨度双层柱面网壳的自动建模、加载、施加约束及求解。借此平台对柱面网壳结构进行模态和地震反应分析。首先,分析了结构自振特性随几何参数变化的特点,研究了结构的基频随矢跨比和网壳厚度的变化规律,结果表明,当矢跨比在1/3.6~1/5该范围内,结构的整体刚度较大;网壳厚度在1.8~2.1 m时,网壳整体刚度较大;对于矢跨比一定的网壳,随着厚度的增加,杆件的动内力大多增加,横向弦杆的二维与单维动内力比值有所增加,而纵向弦杆的二维与单维动内力则变化不大。然后,对网壳进行不同几何参数下的地震反应分析,给出了最大节点位移和最大杆件轴应力随几何参数变化的时程响应曲线,揭示了这类网壳的地震反应特点。     

Baseline soil levels of PCDD/Fs established prior to the construction of municipal solid waste incinerators in China

In order to determine the baseline contamination by polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs) and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs) in different areas in China, prior to the construction of municipal solid waste incinerators (MSWIs), a total of 32 representative soil samples was collected near 16 incinerators and analyzed for their PCDD/F concentrations. The PCDD/F baseline concentrations in the soil samples ranged from 0.32 to 11.4 ng I-TEQ kg⁻¹ (dry matter), with average and median value of 2.73 and 2.24 ng I-TEQ kg⁻¹ (dry matter), respectively, and a span between maximum and minimum recorded value of 36. The PCDD homologues predominated in 26 out of 32 soil samples, with the ratio (PCDDs)/(PCDFs) ranging from 1.1 to 164; however in the other 6 samples, PCDF homologues were larger, with the same ratio varying from 0.04 to 0.8. Principal component analysis (PCA) and hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) were used to examine PCDD/F amount and profile in these soil samples, and their possible associations with known emission sources: in this process 6 really distinct isomer fingerprints were identified. Background PCDD/F levels and profiles were comparable to those found in soils from China and other countries and indicate a rather low baseline PCDD/F contamination of soils. The present data provide the tools for future assessment of a possible impact of these MSWIs.     

太湖梅梁湾富营养化相关问题探讨

太湖水体富营养化问题已严重威胁着太湖流域社会经济发展,特别是梅梁湾湖区尤为严重。以实测资料为基础,分析了太湖富营养化的环境影响因子,得出以下结论：磷为梅梁湾湖区主要的限制性因子;光照、水温为该区富营养化重要影响因素,但不是主要的限制性因子。CODMa与富营养化关系密切,但需进一步探讨其影响实质。     

污水快速渗滤土地处理研究进展

针对RI系统的污染物去除机制、运行方式、系统恢复以及实践应用等方面的研究进展作一综述。RI技术的应用有着广阔的前景 ,必将促进我国环境保护与生态建设的发展     

杭州区域环境噪声监测点位优化探索

在杭州市现有区域环境噪声手工监测点位的基础上,结合地理分布,采用系统聚类法对2012年149个点位的数据样本分类、合并,将149个点位优化到26个,并用T检验法验证数据可靠性。优化前后各城区的点位分布比例相差不大,等效声级绝对误差在1.0 d B(A)内,相对误差不超过±5%。经过2013年和2014年数据验证,确定优化后的点位能体现声环境功能区的代表性。     

Assessing Landscape Condition Relative to Water Resources in the Western United States: A Strategic Approach

The Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP) is proposing an ambitious agenda to assess the status of streams and estuaries in a 12-State area of the western United States by the end of 2003. Additionally, EMAP is proposing to access landscape conditions as they relate to stream and estuary conditions across the west. The goal of this landscape project is to develop a landscape model that can be used to identify the relative risks of streams and estuaries to potential declines due to watershed-scale, landscape conditions across the west. To do so, requires an understanding of quantitative relationships between landscape composition and pattern metrics and parameters of stream and estuary conditions. This paper describes a strategic approach for evaluating the degree to which landscape composition and pattern influence stream and estuary condition, and the development and implementation of a spatially-distributed, landscape analysis approach.     

BPA暴露对本体和子代胰岛β细胞转录组差异对比分析

双酚A(BPA)作为一种典型的环境内分泌干扰物,与二型糖尿病和肥胖症等代谢类疾病密切相关.在这项研究中,旨在探讨BPA直接暴露以及围产期暴露对本体和子代胰岛β细胞影响的差异,从而实现对不同易感人群的精准预防与治疗.通过对GEO数据库中GSE126297和GSE82175两个数据集进行分析,共筛选出108个共有的差异基因...     

A framework for allocating conservation resources among multiple threats and actions

Land managers decide how to allocate resources among multiple threats that can be addressed through multiple possible actions. Additionally, these actions vary in feasibility, effectiveness, and cost. We sought to provide a way to optimize resource allocation to address multiple threats when multiple management options are available, including mutually exclusive options. Formulating the decision as a combinatorial optimization problem, our framework takes as inputs the expected impact and cost of each threat for each action (including do nothing) and for each overall budget identifies the optimal action to take for each threat. We compared the optimal solution to an easy to calculate greedy algorithm approximation and a variety of plausible ranking schemes. We applied the framework to management of multiple introduced plant species in Australian alpine areas. We developed a model of invasion to predict the expected impact in 50 years for each species-action combination that accounted for each species’ current invasion state (absent, localized, widespread); arrival probability; spread rate; impact, if present, of each species; and management effectiveness of each species-action combination. We found that the recommended action for a threat changed with budget; there was no single optimal management action for each species; and considering more than one candidate action can substantially increase the management plan's overall efficiency. The approximate solution (solution ranked by marginal cost-effectiveness) performed well when the budget matched the cost of the prioritized actions, indicating that this approach would be effective if the budget was set as part of the prioritization process. The ranking schemes varied in performance, and achieving a close to optimal solution was not guaranteed. Global sensitivity analysis revealed a threat's expected impact and, to a lesser extent, management effectiveness were the most influential parameters, emphasizing the need to focus research and monitoring efforts on their quantification.