Time Series Forecasting of Cyanobacteria Blooms in the Crestuma Reservoir (Douro River, Portugal) Using Artificial Neural Networks

In this work, time series neural networks were used to predict the occurrence of toxic cyanobacterial blooms in Crestuma Reservoir, which is an important potable water supply for the Porto region, located in the north of Portugal. These models can potentially be used to provide water treatment plant operators with an early warning for developing cyanobacteria blooms. Physical, chemical, and biological parameters were collected at Crestuma Reservoir from 1999 to 2002. The data set was then divided into three independent time series, each with a fortnightly periodicity. One training series was used to “teach” the neural networks to predict results. Another series was used to verify the results, and to avoid over-fitting of the data. An additional independently collected data series was then used to test the efficacy of the model for predicting the abundance of cyanobacteria. All of the models tested in this study incorporated a prediction time (look-ahead parameter) equal to the sampling interval (two weeks). Various lag periods, from 2 to 52 weeks, were also investigated. The best model produced in this study provided the following correlations between the target and forecast values in the training, verification, and validation series: 1.000 (P = 0.000), 0.802 (P = 0.000), and 0.773 (P = 0.001), respectively. By applying this model to the three-year data set, we were able to predict fluctuations in cyanobacteria abundance in the Crestuma Reservoir, with a high level of precision. By incorporating a lag-period of eight weeks, we were able to detect secondary fluctuations in cyanobacterial abundance over the annual cycle.     

西湖与青山水库底栖动物群落的研究

通过对杭州市的两个主要水体西湖和青山水库的底栖动物群落包括种类组成、优势种群、生物量等的比较研究。西湖和青山水库底栖动物群落主要由寡毛类和摇蚊幼虫组成 ,存在适应低溶氧、耐有机污染的种群。从底栖动物群落生态学角度评价了西湖和青山水库水体的营养化程度。     

升钟水库浮游植物的生物多样性调查及时空分布

2008年5月至2009年4月对升钟水库的浮游植物群落结构进行了研究.结果表明,升钟水库浮游植物共计8门69属219种(含变种和变型),种群结构主要以蓝藻、绿藻和硅藻为主.浮游植物的生物多样性指数平均为1.059,均匀度指数平均为0.192,平均藻类密度为33.41×10 5个/L,标志升钟水库的水体营养程度较高.     

溪源水库蓄水前后冬春季水体营养盐和浮游植物特征研究

于2007—2008年溪源水库蓄水前,2014—2015年溪源水库蓄水后对溪源宫水源地水体进行采样,分析了冬春季水体的理化指标、浮游植物生物量及群落组成。蓄水前共鉴定出浮游植物6门26属43种,水体水质状况较好,浮游植物细胞密度平均为7.31×10~5cells/L,以硅藻、绿藻门为优势门类,两者占浮游植物总生物量的比例约为54.7%、32.2%,水体呈贫-中营养状态。蓄水后,水体氮、磷营养盐浓度分别约为蓄水前的2.4倍、3倍,浮游植物细胞密度平均为1.42×10~7cells/L,约为蓄水前的20倍,且群落结构发生改变,优势门类为硅藻、蓝藻、绿藻,所占比例分别为40.2%、38.7%、14.4%,蓝藻门比例有显著提高,约为蓄水前的5倍。说明建库蓄水对浮游植物的影响显著。     

A fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) approach to eco-environmental vulnerability assessment for the danjiangkou reservoir area,China

The Danjiangkou reservoir lies in the upper Hanjiang basin and is the source of water for the Middle Route Project (MRP) under the South-to-North Water Transfer Scheme (SNWT) in China. The eco-environment of water resource areas plays an important role in water conservation and purification and would have significant implications for the economic prosperity in Hanjiang basin as well as for the SNWT. Focusing on the Danjiangkou Reservoir Area (DRA), this study established an environmental information system database. Based on the database, an eco-environmental vulnerability assessment method using integrated fuzzy AHP (FAHP) and GIS was developed for the DRA. According to eco-environmental conditions and anthropic effects, vulnerability was classified into five levels: potential, light, medium, heavy and very heavy. The eco-environmental vulnerability distribution and major problems of the eco-environment were analysed and discussed. The results indicated that eco-environmental vulnerability in the DRA was moderate overall. Regions with lower eco-environmental vulnerability were located in Qinling Mountain area in the northwest, Daba Mountain area in the south and the area immediately surrounding Danjiangkou Reservoir in the east. Two regions with very high eco-environmental vulnerability were located in the north of Danjiangkou Reservoir in Henan province and in the western part of Shanxi province. On the basis of analysis of distribution of the different factors of eco-environmental vulnerability, different environmental protection measures were proposed for different areas. This study demonstrated that the proposed method was an effective approach for the assessment of environmental vulnerability. The results gained closely reflected the reality of the eco-environmental vulnerability of the DRA.     

白盆珠水库库区坡面径流侵蚀规律初步研究

在对白盆珠水库库区开展水土流失实地调查的基础上,选择库区典型的侵蚀地貌类型与植被类型进行降雨-径流-产沙规律的初步研究.通过6个径流小区试验对比,分析了在不同植被条件下产流、产沙的差异,结果表明缺乏地表草本植被的纯飞播造林的水土保持效益十分有限;库区降雨径流产沙是白盆珠水库淤积的重要来源.     

陆相储层油田开发工程灾害特征及成因机理——以松滋油田A区为例

基于松滋A区油田工程灾害统计资料,开展陆相储层油田开发工程灾害特征和成因机理研究。以油田开发过程中出现的工程灾害事件"套管损坏"为例,通过比较不同地下地质结构油区工程灾害发育特征的差异,从储层性质、矿物成分、沉积相等入手,分析地下地质结构与套管损坏、油层出砂等工程灾害之间的内在联系;从理论角度分析灾害成因机理,探讨在油田开发注水情况下,地下地质结构对工程灾害的控制和影响;并从工程角度,提出预防和控制灾害的对策和建议。     

潜在泥石流的界定与判识——以金沙江流域溪洛渡库区为例

选择在建的溪洛渡库区作为研究区域,通过详细的野外考察,确定金沙江流域溪洛渡库区干流共有现代活动泥石流沟57条。利用Matlab构建SOM神经网络模型,依据这57条泥石流样本,选择流域面积、主沟长度、相对高差、沟床比降、平均坡度、相对切割程度、圆状率和侵蚀程度等8个指标,对干流46条沟谷进行预测。预测结果分为：①非泥石流沟有19条,分布在雷波-永善三角台地上;②低危险潜在泥石流沟有14条,分布在库区尾端;③高危险潜在泥石流沟有13条,分布于库区中间位置。预测结果可以为库区生态修复和工程治理提供依据。     

基于遥感影像的丹江口水库水域面积动态变化与原因研究

丹江口水库是南水北调中线工程的水源地,水库水域面积的动态变化研究,对保障调水有重要意义。针对丹江口水库水域面积变化较快、短期波动明显,对南水北调中线工程稳定调水有较大影响的问题,采用2000年3月~2015年10月逐月遥感影像,基于归一化差异水体指数(NDWI)提取水体,研究了丹江口水库水域面积的动态变化。结果表明:丹江口水库近16 a来月际平均水域面积均超过400 km2,2~7月份为枯水期,8月份~翌年1月份为丰水期。按季节来看,夏季至秋季水库水域面积呈增大趋势,冬季至次年春季水库水域面积呈减小趋势,同时水库水域在秋季波动最为剧烈,冬季较为平缓。自2014年12月~2015年10月,受大坝加高蓄水影响,水库水域面积均维持在550 km2以上。水库的水位涨落形成的消落区主要集中在丹江水库北部、东部和汉江水库的西部。     

尾矿库区域预警指标体系的建立

从尾矿库本身安全、地质条件、气象条件、人为因素等4个方面分析了尾矿库灾害的影响因素;根据预警指标选取的原则,结合尾矿库事故对下游人员和财产的影响,建立了尾矿库区域预警指标体系;选取尾矿库危险等级、地形坡度、地质构造及条件、最新日雨量、5日累积雨量、采矿现象、爆破现象、下游人数、下游财产等9个指标作为尾矿库区域预警指标;根据尾矿库预警级别,确定了尾矿库预警指标的取值范围。尾矿库区域预警指标体系建立为尾矿库的区域预警提供了基础依据。