PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY IN RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELING FOR POLDER SYSTEM DESIGN1

ABSTRACT: An approach is developed for incorporating the uncertainty of parameters for estimating runoff in the design of polder systems in ungaged watersheds. Monte Carlo Simulation is used to derive a set of realizations of streamflow hydrographs for a given design rainstorm using the U. S. Soil Conservation Service (SCS) unit hydrograph model. The inverse of the SCS curve number, which is a function of the antecedent runoff condition in the SCS model, is the random input in the Monte Carlo Simulation. Monte Carlo realizations of streamfiow hydrographs are used to simulate the performance of a polder flood protection system. From this simulation the probability of occurrence of flood levels for a particular hydraulic design may be used to evaluate its effectiveness. This approach is demonstrated for the Pluit Polder flood protection system for the City of Jakarta, Indonesia. While the results of the application indicate that uncertainty in the antecedent runoff condition is important, the effects of uncertainty in rainfall data, in additional runoff parameters, such as time to peak, in the hydraulic design, and in the rainfall-runoff model selected should also be considered. Although, the SCS model is limited to agricultural conditions, the approach presented herein may be applied to other flood control systems if appropriate storm runoff models are selected.     

SEASONAL ARIMA INFLOW MODELS FOR RESERVOIR SIZING1

ABSTRACT: The reliable sizing of reservoirs is a very important task of hydraulic engineering. Although many reservoirs throughout the world have been designed using Rippl's mass curves with historical inflow volumes at the dam site, this technique is now considered outdated. In this paper, synthetic series of monthly inflows are used as an alternative to historical inflow records. These synthetic series are generated from stochastic SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) models. The analyzed data refer to the planned Almopeos Reservoir on the Almopeos River in Northern Greece with 19‐year monthly inflow series. The analysis of this study demonstrates the ability of SARIMA models, in conjunction with the adequate transformation, to forecast monthly inflows of one or more months ahead and generate synthetic series of monthly inflows that preserve the key statistics of the historical monthly inflows and their persistence Hurst coefficient K. The forecasted monthly inflows would be of help in evaluating the optimal real time reservoir operation policies and the generated synthetic series of monthly inflows can be used to provide a probabilistic framework for reservoir design and to cope with the situation where the design horizon of interest exceeds the length of the historical inflow record.     

RIVERWARE: A GENERALIZED TOOL FOR COMPLEX RESERVOIR SYSTEM MODELING1

ABSTRACT: Water management agencies seek the next generation of modeling tools for planning and operating river basins. Previous site‐specific models such as U.S. Bureau of Reclamation's (USBR) Colorado River Simulation System and Tennessee Valley Authority's (TVA) Daily Scheduling Model have become obsolete; however, new models are difficult and expensive to develop and maintain. Previous generalized river basin modeling tools are limited in their ability to represent diverse physical system and operating policy details for a wide range of applications. RiverWare(tm), a new generalized river basin modeling tool, provides a construction kit for developing and running detailed, site‐specific models without the need to develop or maintain the supporting software within the water management agency. It includes an extensible library of modeling algorithms, several solvers, and a rich “language” for the expression of operating policy. Its point‐and‐click graphical interface facilitates model construction and execution, and communication of policies, assumptions and results to others. Applications developed and used by the TVA and the USBR demonstrate that a wide range of operational and planning problems on widely varying basins can be solved using this tool.     

Effects of Flooding on Lead and Cadmium Speciation in Sediments from a Drinking Water Reservoir

Římov water reservoir on the river Malše is the main source of drinking water for the town of České Budějovice and for the majority of inhabitants in the South Bohemian region, Czech Republic. Changes in cadmium and lead contents in bottom sediments before and after an extensive flood on the river Malše in August, 2002 were therefore determined. A five-step sequential extraction procedure was used in order to obtain more detailed information about the influence of the flood on heavy metal retention. In order to determine the mobility of lead and cadmium, the mobility factor (MF) for these heavy metals was calculated. The mobility factor of cadmium showed a significant decrease in the upper parts of the sediment profiles after the flood (e.g., from 59.4% to 49.1%) caused by a release of cadmium especially from the exchangeable fraction. There were no significant changes in the lead mobility factor after the flood, but a decrease of lead concentration in the exchangeable fraction was observed. Presented results show that the flood led to a leaching of the heavy metals present in bottom sediments into the environment.     

Variation of Metals in Bed Sediments of Qaraaoun Reservoir, Lebanon

The Qaraaoun Reservoir (impoundment of the River Litani) is the only artificial surface water body in the country, Lebanon. Earlier study on the water quality of the Qaraaoun Reservoir identified three water quality zoning with a central distinct zone suitable for multipurpose water usage. The objective of this study was to extend the earlier work by considering the total metal content of reservoir bed sediments and hence to evaluate factors that control metal deposition or capture. Water samples were collected from 15 sampling sites and sediment samples were simultaneously collected from 9 sites. Water parameters analyzed were pH, Eh, DO and temperature. Sediment samples were dried and sieved and sediment < 75 μ m was retained for analysis. Sediments were subjected to a stepwise heating process with aqua regia to extract the metals, and their content in sediments determined by ICP-MS. The sediment data revealed higher metal contents where the river entered the reservoir which matched higher concentrations of water parameters at the influx site. Regression analysis of total metals in sediments with distance from the river Litani influx point to the dam revealed a log trend for Fe, Cr and Ni, whereas, the concentrations of Cu, Zn, Cd, Pb were better described by a polynomial regression. Three sediment zones were identified: entrance, oxidation (central) and reducing (near dam) zones. Sediment contents of Zn, Cu and Pb correlated with organic content, whereas sediment Cr and Ni were associated with iron. It was concluded that sediments act as a sink for metals and the deposition of metals is primarily related to sediment organic content and the level of dissolved oxygen in water.     

天津市地表水水质变化趋势及对策

水资源短缺和水体严重污染,是天津市的主要水环境问题。通过对天津市主要水体水质变化趋势及产生原因分析,揭示天津地区水污染的发生规律,并提出了改善水环境质量的相应对策。     

粤北2座不同营养水平水库浮游植物功能类群的季节演替

于2011年1—12月对广东省韶关市白水礤水库和苍村水库这2座中型居民供水水库进行每月1次、为期1a的采样,利用营养状态指数(TSI)进行水质综合评价,将水库中的浮游植物按功能类群进行分类,并结合水库的水文、水质和浮游植物的生境特征,分析全年优势功能类群的演替特点及其主要的环境影响因子。结果表明,白水礤水库为贫营养型水库,苍村水库为低中营养型水库,全年共检出浮游植物7门45属(种),可划分为16个功能类群,其中,白水礤水库全年以适应低营养盐环境的功能类群占优势,耐富营养化的功能类群仅在丰水期有检出;而苍村水库全年都能监测到耐富营养环境的功能类群,且在丰水期明显占优势,但在枯水期和平水期因营养盐含量的降低,演变为以适应低营养盐环境的功能类群为主。营养盐含量的不同是导致2座水库浮游植物功能类群产生差异的根本原因,而因降水季节的变化所致水体环境因子的变化则是造成2座水库浮游植物功能类群演替不可忽视的因素。     

漳泽水库水体污染对黑斑蛙蝌蚪遗传毒性的野外调查研究

通过野外采集漳泽水库不同采样点的黑斑蛙蝌蚪,采用微核、核异常、彗星试验3种方法,研究了水体污染对蝌蚪红细胞微核率、核异常率和DNA断裂3种遗传毒性指标的影响。微核试验结果显示:各采样点红细胞微核率除泽头采样点外,均明显高于阴性对照(P0.01),其中水库入口店上采样点的微核率最高,为6.87‰,位于水库上、中、下游3个采样点的微核率逐渐下降,从大到小依次为:下韩(5.45‰)、台上(3.71‰)、泽头(2.33‰)。核异常试验结果显示:各采样点核异常率均明显高于阴性对照(P0.01),核异常率与微核率二者变化趋势趋于一致。彗星试验结果显示:各采样点红细胞尾长、尾矩与阴性对照相比差异均极显著(P0.01),尾长、尾矩的变化趋势与微核试验结果一致。对同样位于水库中游的采样点司徒和台上的4个指标进行多重比较分析发现:微核率、核异常率和彗星尾长差异均不显著(P0.05),而尾矩差异显著(P0.05)。综上可知,漳泽水库各采样点水体具有较高的遗传毒性,主要毒性作用为引起染色体(DNA)断裂;各采样点遗传毒性指标变化规律与水体污染物变化规律趋于一致,因此应用这3种方法可以有效地对水体遗传毒性进行检测。     

南水北调中线北京段水质状况分析

水质是水资源管理部门关心的核心问题,北京市南水北调水质更是关系到北京市生活用水安全和社会稳定.收集了南水北调中线北京段通水以来大宁调压池和大宁调蓄水库两个监测点位的总氮、硝氮等10项月水质监测数据.采用方差分析法从不同角度分析了北京南水北调来水水质差异,采用因子分析法识别了大宁调压池和大宁调蓄水库的水质风险因子.结果表明,南水北调中线北京段冀水全年硝氮、总氮、氟离子、氯离子、硫酸盐含量高于江水,江水水质优于冀水.LSD差异性检验结果显示:冀水溶解氧、硝氮和总氮汛期和非汛期差异性显著(P0.05),江水pH汛期和非汛期差异性显著,水质较冀水更为稳定.无论在汛期还是在非汛期,江水和冀水在pH、溶解氧、高锰酸盐指数、总磷、氨氮这5个指标上差异性不明显(P0.05),而硝氮、总氮、氟离子、硫酸盐及氯离子则存在显著性差异(P0.05).大宁调蓄水库硝氮、总氮、硫酸盐及氯离子含量2015年(冀水+江水)全年低于2012~2014年(冀水),江水进京后在水库对冀水起到了很好的稀释调节作用.2012~2014年及2015年水库汛期和非汛期水质差异性检验结果均显示,硝氮、总氮、氟离子、硫酸盐和氯离子存在显著性差异(P0.05),非汛期水质2015年优于2012~2014年,其他pH、溶解氧、高锰酸盐指数、总磷、氨氮这5个指标差异性不明显(P0.05).调压池、大宁水库冀水汛期和非汛期差异性比较结果显示,高锰酸盐指数、总氮、氟离子、硫酸盐及氯离子差异性显著,其中高锰酸盐、氟离子、硫酸盐和氯离子水库高于调节池.因子分析的结果表明,大宁调压池和大宁调蓄水库潜在水质风险因子主要是氮元素,包括氨氮、硝氮和总氮,大宁调蓄水库水质潜在风险因子还包括总磷.     

湖库富营养化敏感分级水动力概率参数研究

鉴于按多年平均流量估计滞留时间进行富营养化敏感程度分类较为粗糙,在月平均尺度上,考虑径流量的概率分布,提出了滞留率、缓流率、倒灌保证率等新的水动力概率参数反映水体动力特征,使水体富营养化敏感程度的识别及分级建立在考虑年内变化及多年变化的基础之上,使之在敏感分级上有更高的分辨率.并以三峡水库为实例,进行了不同支流的水体水动力概率参数的计算.结果显示,不同支流水体间的敏感水动力概率参数有明显差别,依据水动力条件等因素对水体富营养化控制实施差别化管理是必要的.