MEAN AREAL PRECIPITATION FOR DAILY HYDROLOGIC MODELING IN MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS1

ABSTRACT: A procedure using detrended kriging has been developed to calculate daily values of mean areal precipitation (MAP) for input to hydrologic models. The important features of this procedure that overcome weaknesses in existing MAP procedures are: (1) specific precipitation-elevation relationships are determined for each time period as opposed to using relationships based on climatological averages, (2) spatial variability is incorporated by estimating precipitation for each grid cell over a watershed, (3) the spatial correlation structure of precipitation is explicitly modeled, and (4) station weights for precipitation estimates are determined objectively and optimally. Detailed cross-validation testing of the procedure was done for the Reynolds Creek research watershed in southwestern Idaho. The procedure is suitable for use in operational streamflow forecasting.     

2006年3-4月国内环境事件

简要统计了2006年3-4月国内发生的各种环境事件125起,包括沙尘天气13起,污染事件64起,地震13起,山体滑坡和泥石流7起,虫害3起,以及其他自然灾害25起.对沙尘和污染进行了讨论.     

1993-2003年特大火灾发生规律、特征及原因分析

火灾作为一种灾害现象,其发生与发展具有随机性和确定性的双重特性.火灾统计分析是研究火灾随机性规律的一种有效方法,它通过总结、整理和分析大量的原始火灾资料,归纳出火灾发生的统计性规律.本文从1993-2003年我国火灾形势着手,联系火灾形势发展过程中的火灾起数、火灾中人员伤亡和直接财产损失等大量数据,重点分析了特大火灾的原因及类别特征,总结了特大火灾发生发展的规律和趋势,为正确认识和预测我国火灾形势、做好特大火灾的预防工作提供了参考.     

A robust approach for iterative contaminant source location and release history recovery

Contamination source identification is a crucial step in environmental remediation. The exact contaminant source locations and release histories are often unknown due to lack of records and therefore must be identified through inversion. Coupled source location and release history identification is a complex nonlinear optimization problem. Existing strategies for contaminant source identification have important practical limitations. In many studies, analytical solutions for point sources are used; the problem is often formulated and solved via nonlinear optimization; and model uncertainty is seldom considered. In practice, model uncertainty can be significant because of the uncertainty in model structure and parameters, and the error in numerical solutions. An inaccurate model can lead to erroneous inversion of contaminant sources. In this work, a constrained robust least squares (CRLS) estimator is combined with a branch-and-bound global optimization solver for iteratively identifying source release histories and source locations. CRLS is used for source release history recovery and the global optimization solver is used for location search. CRLS is a robust estimator that was developed to incorporate directly a modeler's prior knowledge of model uncertainty and measurement error. The robustness of CRLS is essential for systems that are ill-conditioned. Because of this decoupling, the total solution time can be reduced significantly. Our numerical experiments show that the combination of CRLS with the global optimization solver achieved better performance than the combination of a non-robust estimator, i.e., the nonnegative least squares (NNLS) method, with the same solver.     

2012年1—2月国内环境事件

简要统计了2012年1—2月国内发生的各种环境事件78起,包括沙尘天气3起,污染事件18起,地震34起,山体滑坡和泥石流7起,旱灾4起以及其他自然灾害12起。     

Effectiveness of Panama as an intercontinental land bridge for large mammals

Habitat fragmentation is a primary driver of wildlife loss, and establishment of biological corridors is a common strategy to mitigate this problem. A flagship example is the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor (MBC), which aims to connect protected forest areas between Mexico and Panama to allow dispersal and gene flow of forest organisms. Because forests across Central America have continued to degrade, the functioning of the MBC has been questioned, but reliable estimates of species occurrence were unavailable. Large mammals are suitable indicators of forest functioning, so we assessed their conservation status across the Isthmus of Panama, the narrowest section of the MBC. We used large-scale camera-trap surveys and hierarchical multispecies occupancy models in a Bayesian framework to estimate the occupancy of 9 medium to large mammals and developed an occupancy-weighted connectivity metric to evaluate species-specific functional connectivity. White-lipped peccary (Tayassu pecari), jaguar (Panthera onca), giant anteater (Myrmecophaga tridactyla), white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), and tapir (Tapirus bairdii) had low expected occupancy along the MBC in Panama. Puma (Puma concolor), red brocket deer (Mazama temama), ocelot (Leopardus pardalis), and collared peccary (Pecari tajacu), which are more adaptable, had higher occupancy, even in areas with low forest cover near infrastructure. However, the majority of species were subject to ≥1 gap that was larger than their known dispersal distances, suggesting poor connectivity along the MBC in Panama. Based on our results, forests in Darien, Donoso–Santa Fe, and La Amistad International Park are critical for survival of large terrestrial mammals in Panama and 2 areas need restoration.     

The need to improve information on road user type in National Vital Statistics System mortality data

Objectives: Both the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) and the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) can be used to examine motor vehicle crash (MVC) deaths. These 2 data systems operate independently, using different methods to collect and code information about the type of vehicle (e.g., car, truck, bus) and road user (e.g., occupant, motorcyclist, pedestrian) involved in an MVC. A substantial proportion of MVC deaths in NVSS are coded as “unspecified” road user, which reduces the utility of the NVSS data for describing burden and identifying prevention measures. This study aimed to describe characteristics of unspecified road user deaths in NVSS to further our understanding of how these groups may be similar to occupant road user deaths.

Methods: Using data from 1999 to 2015, we compared NVSS and FARS MVC death counts by road user type, overall and by age group, gender, and year. In addition, we examined factors associated with the categorization of an MVC death as unspecified road user such as state of residence of decedent, type of medical death investigation system, and place of death.

Results: The number of MVC occupant deaths in NVSS was smaller than that in FARS in each year and the number of unspecified road user deaths in NVSS was greater than that in FARS. The sum of the number of occupant and unspecified road user deaths in NVSS, however, was approximately equal to the number of FARS occupant deaths. Age group and gender distributions were roughly equivalent for NVSS and FARS occupants and NVSS unspecified road users. Within NVSS, the number of MVC deaths listed as unspecified road user varied across states and over time. Other categories of road users (motorcyclists, pedal cyclists, and pedestrians) were consistent when comparing NVSS and FARS.

Conclusions: Our findings suggest that the unspecified road user MVC deaths in NVSS look similar to those of MVC occupants according to selected characteristics. Additional study is needed to identify documentation and reporting challenges in individual states and over time and to identify opportunities for improvement in the coding of road user type in NVSS.     

基于水质水量的城镇污水处理厂工艺运行稳定性研究

采用四川省2座位于不同排水服务区域的城镇污水处理厂的样本数据,统计分析了日处理水量,COD、TN、TP浓度及负荷和C/N、C/P等统计量的累积频率分布规律,并分析了各统计量的分布特征对工艺运行稳定性的影响。结果表明,污水处理厂A进水污染物负荷的累积频率分布范围较大,其采用的周期循环活性污泥(CASS)工艺基本能适应进水水质的随机变化,但因存在碳源随机性不足情况,可能导致其脱氮稳定性降低;污水处理厂B进水污染物负荷的累积频率分布范围较小,虽然其采用的厌氧—缺氧—好氧(A2/O)工艺的调控能力较低,但也基本能适应其服务区域内进水水质的随机变化;2座污水处理厂的日处理水量累积频率分布与污染物浓度及负荷的累积频率分布之间均存在显著的差异,日处理水量的累积频率分布比较集中,而污染物浓度及负荷的累积频率分布的离散范围较大,这也潜在威胁到工艺运行的稳定性。总体来看,2座污水处理厂的处理工艺选择恰当,均能较好适应其服务区域的进水水质和水量的要求。     

2018年11-12月国内环境事件

LI Sheng-cai;AN Ying(State Key Laboratory of Explosion Science and Technology,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China)     

Spatial sampling and the environment: some issues and directions

In this paper we summarize research issues for spatial environmental sampling stemming from a NISS/USEPA workshop held on 21-22 September 1994 at Chapel Hill, NC.