基于两阶段模糊熵权的震灾抢修抢建价值评估模型

面对地震对工程的破坏与抢修抢建需求,提出一种两阶段模糊熵权的抢修抢建工程价值评估模型。探究地震作用下抢修抢建工程价值特征体系的参数、变化趋势等特征,给出工程项目价值指标的混合判断矩阵,集成模糊熵权方法对工程项目价值指标阶段、准则阶段进行层次化评估,确定工程项目的抢修抢建相对价值系数。模型应用于震后抢修抢建案例,得到工程项目隐含的权值信息,据此得到抢修抢建案例的价值系数及执行序列。     

浅议新大气排放标准发布后火电厂竣工验收监测

2011年7月29日《火电厂大气污染物排放标准》发布后,现有火电厂的“三同时”竣工验收监测需执行新标准中的相关规定。新标准还增加了敏感点环境空气的监测,敏感点的确定可参照环评,根据实际情况布设。新标准中未明确指明“重点地区”指哪些行政区划,为此,本文建议需要在新标准中进一步明确“重点地区”指哪些省等行政区域,以利于新标准的执行。     

Long-range atmospheric transport of three toxaphene congeners across Europe. Modeling by chained single-box FATEMOD program

Background, aims, and scope  Since toxaphene (polychlorocamphene, polychloropinene, or strobane) mixtures were applied for massive insecticide use in the 1960s to replace the use of DDT, some of their congeners have been found at high latitudes far away from the usage areas. Especially polychlorinated bornanes have demonstrated dominating congeners transported by air up to the Arctic areas. Environmental fate modeling has been applied to monitor this phenomenon using parallel zones of atmosphere around the globe as interconnected environments. These zones, shown in many meteorological maps, however, may not be the best way to configure atmospheric transport in air trajectories. The latter could also be covered by connecting a chain of simple model boxes. We aim to study this alternative approach by modeling the trajectory chain using catchment boxes of our FATEMOD model. Polychlorobornanes analyzed in biota of the Barents Sea offered one case to study this modeling alternative, while toxaphene has been and partly still is used massively at southern East Europe and around rivers flowing to the Aral Sea. Materials and methods  Pure model substances of three polychlorobornanes (toxaphene congeners P26, P50, and P62) were synthesized, their environmentally important thermal properties measured by differential scanning calorimetry, as evaluated from literature data, and their temperature dependences estimated by the QSPR programs VPLEST, WATSOLU, and TDLKOW. The evaluated property parameters were used to model their atmospheric long-range transport from toxaphene heavy usage areas in Ukraine and Aral/SyrDarja/AmuDarja region areas, through East Europe and Northern Norway (Finnmarken) to the Barents Sea. The time period used for the emission model was June 1997. Usual weather conditions in June were applied in the model, which was constructed by chaining FATEMOD model boxes of the catchment’s areas along assumed maximal air flow trajectories. Analysis of the three chlorobornanes in toxaphene mixtures function as a basis for the estimates of emission levels caused by its usage. High estimate (A) was taken from contents in a Western product chlorocamphene and low estimate (B) from mean contents in Russian polychloroterpene products to achieve modeled water concentrations. Bioaccumulation to analyzed lipid of aquatic biota at the target region was estimated by using statistical calculation for persistent organic pollutants in literature. Results  The results from model runs A and B (high and low emission estimate) for levels in sea biota were compared to analysis results of samples taken in August 1997 at Barents Sea. The model results (ng g⁻¹ lw): 4–95 in lipid of planktovores and 7–150 in lipid of piscivores, were in fair agreement with the analysis results from August 1997: 21–31 in Themisto libellula (chatka), 26–42 in Boreocadus saida (Polar cod), and 5–27 in Gadus morhua (cod) liver. Discussion  The modeling results indicate that the application of chained simple multimedia catchment boxes on predicted trajectory is a useful method for estimation of volatile airborne persistent chemical exposures to biota in remote areas. For hazard assessment of these pollutants, their properties, especially temperature dependences, must be estimated by a reasonable accuracy. That can be achieved by using measurements in laboratory with pure model compounds and estimation of properties by thermodynamic QSPR methods. The property parameters can be validated by comparing their values at an environmental temperature range with measured or QSPR-estimated values derived by independent methods. The chained box method used for long-range air transport modeling can be more suitable than global parallel zones modeling used earlier, provided that the main airflow trajectories and properties of transported pollutants are predictable enough. Conclusions  Long-range air transport modeling of persistent, especially photo-resistant organic compounds using a chain of joint simple boxes of catchment’s environments is a feasible method to predict concentrations of pollutants at the target area. This is justified from model results compared with analytical measurements in Barents Sea biota in August 1997: three of six modeled values were high and the other three low compared to the analysis results. The order of magnitude level was similar in both modeled (planktovore and piscivore) and observed (chatka and polar cod) values of lipid samples. The obtained results were too limited to firm validation but are sufficient to justify feasibility of the method, which prompts one to perform more studies on this modeling system. Recommendations and perspectives  For assessment of the risk of environmental damages, chemical fate determination is an essential tool for chemical control, e.g., for EU following the REACH rules. The present conclusion of applicability of the chained single-box multimedia modeling can be validated by further studies using analyses of emissions and target biota in various other cases. To achieve useful results, fate models built with databases having automatic steps for most calculations and outputs accessible to all chemical control professionals are essential. Our FATEMOD program catchments at environments and compound properties listed in the database represent a feasible tool for local, regional, and, according our present test results, for global exposure predictions. As an extended use of model, emission estimates can be achieved by reversed modeling from analysis results of samples corresponding to the target area. This article is dedicated to the memory of Professor Alexander B Terentiev (who passed away in November 2006), our true friend. With his Institute of Organo-Element Compounds, Russian Academy of Science, Moscow, he was an important main organizer of the six joint Finnish–Russian seminars (every third year since 1989) on the field (‘Chemistry and Ecology of Organo-Element Compounds’). He prompted us especially to search properties and environmental fates for various polyhalogen compounds. We remember him for his friendly character and great sense of humor.     

沸石渗滤床在城市初期雨水径流污染控制的应用研究

根据城市初期雨水径流的污染负荷初始冲刷效应以及主要污染物COD和N/P与SS成线性相关性的污染特点,对初期雨水的主要污染物COD和N/P开展了控制技术研究。以示范工程为基础,研究城市初期雨水径流污染控制的强化处理技术即沸石渗滤床技术,运行结果表明,对NH3-N、TP、COD都有较好的去除效果,其中对NH3-N的去除效果较为明显,进水氨氮浓度在2～5 mg/L,出水都能达到地表IV类水标准(NH3-N≤0.5 mg/L)。     

转野生荠菜凝集素基因棉花对赤子爱胜蚓的影响

在实验室条件下分别给赤子爱胜蚓(Eisenia foetida)饲喂在自然状况下可能接受的棉叶最高添加量和2倍最高添加量的转野生荠菜凝集素(WSA)基因棉花(Gossypium hirsutum)叶片,并以其亲本棉花叶片为对照,以牛粪为阴性对照,以农药为阳性对照,研究种植转WSA基因棉花对赤子爱胜蚓死亡率、生长及繁殖的影响。结果表明,在49 d的试验周期内,与取食亲本棉花叶片的赤子爱胜蚓相比,取食转WSA基因棉花叶片的赤子爱胜蚓的死亡率,体质量,GST、SOD、纤维素酶活性以及蚓茧数和小蚯蚓数均无显著差异,未发现转WSA基因棉花对赤子爱胜蚓有不利影响。     

企业建设项目竣工环境保护自主验收工作初探

简述了企业建设项目竣工环境保护自主验收政策的出台背景,介绍了自主验收目前取得的成效。针对现阶段工作中存在的自主验收缺乏有效监管及配套的技术支撑、企业主体责任意识不强等问题,提出了完善监督管理制度、提高企业主体责任意识、加强第三方验收监测机构管理、开展验收技术培训、规范建设项目变动认定管理等建议。     

Cracking the Achilles’ heel of energy performance contracting projects: the credit risk identification method for clients

ABSTRACT

A credit risk identification model is established to examine the credit status of Energy performance contracting (EPC) project clients (i.e., energy-using companies) in China based on rough set theory. The model is verified with data from 120 listed companies at different times. Study shows that lack of credit is one of the main obstacles to the implementation of EPC projects, and information asymmetry is the main reason for this lack of credit among potential clients in China. The credit risk identification method based on rough set theory can make up for the shortcomings of existing EPC projects in terms of credit risk identification, including redundant information and indicators, and unclear decision rules. Credit risk identification indicators of clients are dynamic. The research results can help energy service companies (ESCOs) determine the credit status of clients, facilitate cooperation between ESCOs and clients, and help explain the various dynamics of clients’ credit risk identification indicators over time.     

The impact of coal and non-coal consumption on China's energy performance improvement

China is the world's largest energy consumer, and coal accounts for a higher proportion of the country's total energy consumption, yet during its 12th five-year plan (2011–2015), the coal share among total energy consumption significantly decreased. Previous studies exploring energy performance typically used energy consumption as an input, but this lacks the analytical capacity for the structure of energy consumption. Thus, this study splits energy input into two different inputs, coal consumption and non-coal energy consumption, and based on their differences with other variables, uses the hybrid dynamic data envelopment analysis model to assess the energy performance of China's provincial industrial sector during the period 2011 to 2015. We then compare coal consumption's and non-coal consumption's rooms for improvement and conclude that provinces in eastern and central China should reduce the amount of coal consumption, thereby improving energy performance. Conversely, provinces in the western region should target a balance between energy utilization efficiency and coal consumption.     

开展建设项目施工期的环境管理与环境监测

分析了建设项目施工期的环境影响，阐述了开展施工期环境管理与环境监测的必要性，介绍了施工期环境管理的实施手段，施工单位的环境管理制度，施工期环境监测的主要内容及对环境监测部门的要求，建议将施工期的环境管理与环境监测纳入正常的环保管理渠道之中，实现建设项目的全过程环境管理。     

An integrated assessment model for cross-country pipelines

The cross-country petroleum pipelines are environmentally sensitive because they traverse through varied terrain covering crop fields, forests, rivers, populated areas, desert, hills and offshore. Any malfunction of these pipelines may cause devastating effect on the environment. Hence, the pipeline operators plan and design pipelines projects with sufficient consideration of environment and social aspects along with the technological alternatives. Traditionally, in project appraisal, optimum technical alternative is selected using financial analysis. Impact assessments (IA) are then carried out to justify the selection and subsequent statutory approval. However, the IAs often suggest alternative sites and/or alternate technology and implementation methodology, resulting in revision of entire technical and financial analysis. This study addresses the above issues by developing an integrated framework for project feasibility analysis with the application of analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a multiple attribute decision-making technique. The model considers technical analysis (TA), socioeconomic IA (SEIA) and environmental IA (EIA) in an integrated framework to select the best project from a few alternative feasible projects. Subsequent financial analysis then justifies the selection. The entire methodology has been explained here through a case application on cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India.