Mark-recapture estimators for dual frame population size of prominent nesting structures: the effect of uncertain detection probability

The combined mark-recapture and line transect sampling methodology proposed by Alpizar-Jara and Pollock [Journal of Environmental and Ecological Statistics, 3(4), 311–327, 1996; In Marine Mammal Survey and Assessment Methods Symposium. G.W. Garner, S.C. Amstrup, J.L. Laake, B.F.J. Manly, L.L. McDonald, and D.C. Robertson (Eds.), A.A. Balkema, Rotterdam, Netherlands, pp. 99–114, 1999] is used to illustrate the estimation of population size for populations with prominent nesting structures (i.e., bald eagle nests). In the context of a bald eagle population, the number of nests in a list frame corresponds to a pre-marked sample of nests, and an area frame corresponds to a set of transect strips that could be regularly monitored. Unlike previous methods based on dual frame methodology using the screening estimator [Haines and Pollock (Journal of Environmental and Ecological Statistics, 5, 245–256, 1998a; Survey Methodology, 24(1), 79–88, 1998b)], we no longer need to assume that the area frame is complete (i.e., all the nests in the sampled sites do not need to be seen). One may use line transect sampling to estimate the probability of detection in a sampled area. Combining information from list and area frames provides more efficient estimators than those obtained by using data from only one frame. We derive an estimator for detection probability and generalize the screening estimator. A simulation study is carried out to compare the performance of the Chapman modification of the Lincoln–Petersen estimator to the screening estimator. Simulation results show that although the Chapman estimator is generally less precise than the screening estimator, the latter can be severely biased in presence of uncertain detection. The screening estimator outperforms the Chapman estimator in terms of mean squared error when detection probability is near 1 wheareas the Chapman estimator outperforms the screening estimator when detection probability is lower than a certain threshold value depending on particular scenarios.     

Randomized clinical trial of transabdominal versus transcervical chorionic villus sampling methods

The relative advantages and disadvantages of transabdominal (TA) and transcervical (TC) chorionic villus sampling (CVS) in terms of fetal risks and efficacy were evaluated in a clinical trial conducted on 1194 women randomized at 7–12 weeks' gestation. The results of the study indicate that, if any, the relative risk of fetal loss following either procedure is less than double that of the alternative technique when performed by a skilled operator. Overall, the fetal loss rate (spontaneous abortions following randomization, terminations of pregnancy, and perinatal deaths) is 16.5 and 15.5 per cent, respectively, among women allocated to TA- and TC-CVS. The two procedures are equally effective, although TA-CVS is associated with a significantly lower rate of repeat device insertions; on the other hand, a higher weight of chorionic tissue is obtained, on average, with TC-CVS. Bleeding is more common following TC-CVS, while peritoneal reaction developed only after TA-CVS. No diagnostic problems specifically related to one sampling technique were identified.     

Prenatal diagnosis in advanced maternal age. Amniocentesis or CVS,a patient's choice or lack of information?

Ninety-six women of advanced maternal age were interviewed about the way they obtained information on prenatal diagnosis and about how the decision was made as to what procedure was to be performed (transabdominal chorionic villus sampling (TA-CVS) or amnio-centesis). In the CVS group, women visited their physician or midwife earlier in pregnancy (mean 7.1 weeks) than those in the amniocentesis group (mean 10.7 weeks). The availability of prenatal diagnosis was not mentioned during the first antenatal visit in 55 per cent of women from the amniocentesis group as opposed to 25 per cent from the TA-CVS group. Approximately 40 per cent of women eligible for prenatal diagnosis did not receive any information from the referring body prior to counselling at our centre. Only 29 per cent of women who underwent amniocentesis had actually chosen this procedure; 71 per cent were too late to undergo TA-CVS at 12 weeks. It is concluded that information to the patient must be improved in order to ensure early referral for prenatal diagnosis.     

First trimester chorionic villus sampling versus mid-trimester genetic amniocentesis-preliminary results of a controlled prospective trial

This controlled prospective study assesses the relative risks of first trimester chorionic villus sampling (CVS) versus mid-trimester gentic amniocentesis (GA). CVS subjects and amnio-centesis controls were comparable with regard to several confounding variables which might influence the risk of pregnancy loss including maternal age, smoking, alcohol consumption, gestational age at study entry, and history of vaginal bleeding or poor prior reproductive outcome. The most common indication for prenatal diagnosis was advanced maternal age (n = 511). In this subgroup, spontaneous abortion (<24 weeks) occurred in 2·9 per cent of CVS subjects versus 4−3 per cent of amniocentesis controls. The sum of spontaneous and therapeutic abortions (<24 weeks) was identical (5·3 per cent) in both groups. Therefore, intervention in the CVS group (i.e., therapeutic abortion for cytogenetic abnormalities) did not influence the observed risk of pregnancy loss. Overall perinatal mortality rates were also similar in both groups. No significant differences were identified for a number of pregnancy outcome parameters including 5 min Apgar score, birth weight, body length, head circumference, gestational age at delivery, preterm delivery, fetal growth retardation, congenital malformations, and neonatal complications. Preliminary results of this controlled prospective study suggest that chorionic villus sampling carries a low and acceptable risk.     

我国中小城市大气污染总量控制研究

本文提出了一套适合于我国中小城市大气污染总量控制研究的技术路线和模型。通过环境容量规划和污染综合治理规划的有机结合，从而达到以优化的方式协调经济发展与环境保护的矛盾。对镇江市的应用结果表明，本文提出的技术路线和模型是合理可行的。所给出的总量控制方案既能符合经济发展的需要，又能经济有效地控制并改善区域的大气环境质量。     

Passive water sampling for polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons using lipidcontaining semipermeable membrane devices (SPMDs): Application to contaminant residence times

Lipid-containing semipermeable membrane devices are applied to the quantitative determination of the persistence of polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) in an irrigation water canal, a representative waterway. The uniform and reproducible sampling of the USGS design of lipid-containing SPMDs is exploited to measure PAH half-lives without requiring calculation of water concentrations. The trend in calculated PAH half-lives agrees with that expected if volatilization is a significant mechanism for loss from the canal with more volatile PAHs having shorter half-lives. The higher persistence of phenanthrene compared to anthracene is consistent with the greater stability of phenanthrene and suggests, with other physicochemical evidence, that other (reactive) mechanisms may be involved. The results of this study demonstrate the feasibility of the SPMD method for the measurement of residence times in aquatic and other compartments. Such information is essential for quantifying contaminant behavior in the environment and providing insights into contaminant fate.     

新装饰装修房屋室内空气中的苯系物调查

对新装饰装修房屋室内的一类主要有机苯系污染物进行了调查,调查采用吸附柱采集、GC/MS 和GC-FID测定,检测了321家居室内的苯系物.检出的苯系物有12种,苯平均浓度为0.068 mg/m^3,有86.9%的居室符合《室内空气质量标准》（GB/T18883-2002）规定的限量值,甲苯、二甲苯平均浓度分别为0.14 mg/m^3和0.41 mg/m^3,符合《室内空气质量标准》规定限值的居室分别达85.4%和73.3%.苯系物约占室内空气中TVOC的62%,浓度由低到高分别是苯、甲苯、乙苯和二甲苯,其中二甲苯中的间二甲苯占二甲苯总量的55% .     

产品生命周期可得性水足迹计算方法

水足迹方法试图量化评价人类活动对水资源可得性的影响,从而为水资源可持续利用提供科学的依据.水足迹的评价方法尚未统一,目前全球应用最为广泛的是WFN（water footprint network,水足迹协作网络）水足迹计算方法.基于LCA（life cycle assessment,生命周期评价）方法的基本框架,围绕水资源可得性的水量、水质和空间分布3个因素,在分析现有水足迹计算公式的基础上,指出了WFN水足迹计算方法的不足.根据国际水足迹标准（ISO 14046）的原则和要求,改进了WFN的水足迹计算公式,提出了产品生命周期WAF（water availability footprint,可得性水足迹）定义和评价方法,其中包括单元过程数据计算、背景过程数据处理和生命周期汇总.通过方法对比和案例研究得到:WAF方法统一了水消耗量与水污染量定义中的水质基准,可以明确区分水污染和水净化两类过程,还可以反映区域水资源稀缺程度的影响;采用WAF方法,在现有LCA数据库和软件的支持下可以更为规范地完成生命周期水足迹建模与计算但目前单元过程数据计算中各种污染物的基准浓度选取有不可避免的主观性,将直接影响到水足迹计算结果及其客观性,有待进一步研究.      

水环境承载力方法研究

文章给出水环境承载力概念,以及对现有的水环境承载力研究方法进行分析,提出基于水量水质相关法的水环境承载力计算模型,并对其进行实证研究。结果表明,将水量水质相关法应用于水环境承载力的研究,具有建模方便、直观简单的特点,为水环境承载力研究提供了一种新途径。     

北京市家具生产企业职业危害抽样调查

本文从北京市家具生产企业最多的区县中,有针对性地选择其中的18家企业进行现场抽样调查,并对其中的11家进行现场检测,研究北京市家具生产企业职业危害现状,通过现场调查和检测结果表明:北京市家具生产企业的管理者对职业危害的重视程度有所提高,但是从业者的自我保护意识仍然淡漠;生产环境不令人满意,作业场所粉尘超标严重;毒物浓度得到较好控制,主要毒物为苯及苯的同系物。该研究可为有关管理部门制定管理政策提供依据。