基于FUZZY-AHP的危化品管道运输 安全等级综合评判模型与应用

为有效控制与降低危化品管道运输风险,以国家安全生产法和危化品输送管道安全管理规定为基础依据,与我国危化品管道运输现状相结合,建立以危化品管道运输安全等级为目标层的评价指标体系后,基于层次分析法(AHP)理论与模糊数学综合评价法(FUZZY),构建其综合评价模型。通过实例验证表明,该模型对危化品管道运输安全等级的确立科学且有效,所得结论对于提升危化品管道运输安全等级有较好的理论和实践指导作用。     

山岭隧道施工中塌方风险评估模型研究及应用

为评估隧道施工中塌方风险,以确定其可能性及严重程度作为2条主线。由文献调研并结合待评估隧道风险特征、施工现状、工程概况等建立塌方可能性评估指标体系,运用层次分析法(AHP)与多层次模糊综合决策确定塌方风险事件可能性等级,定性指标由专家评判确定对各可能性等级的隶属度,定量指标的隶属度以正态分布作为隶属函数求出;综合考虑多种事故后果类型,选用当量估计法确定塌方风险事件严重程度;最后基于风险矩阵法确定隧道塌方风险等级。将本模型应用于兴隆隧道1号斜井,经评估该斜井塌方风险等级为Ⅲ级,即较大风险,后续施工中须采取有效措施降低风险,减少风险可能导致的损失。     

Climate as a group level phenomenon: Theoretical assumptions and methodological considerations

Climate is a group‐level phenomenon that should be measured and studied at the group level. The group level has theoretical and methodological advantages over the individual level. In this paper, I theoretically review the assumptions in measuring climate at the individual and group levels and demonstrate that the group‐level assumptions are more adequate for climate research because of their influences in exposure to events, interpretation of events, and preservation of perceptions. Methodologically, I discuss advantages in group‐level climate measurement accuracy that are based on multiple evaluators of climate and I suggest group aggregation is an organizational form of “wisdom of the crowds.” Finally, I point to three topics that remain to be investigated to understand climate at the group level better. The first is use of variability measures to compensate for information that is lost in aggregation. The second is challenging the assumption that formal organizational structure defines the group boundaries. I suggest that other levels of analysis apply to group‐level climate measurement and demonstrate the use of informal, more natural groups as an additional level. Third, I point to recently developed statistical procedures that can aid the study of climate perception emergence over time.     

Effects of multitasking on operator performance using computational and auditory tasks

This study investigated the effects of multiple cognitive tasks on human performance. Twenty-four students at North Carolina A&;T State University participated in the study. The primary task was auditory signal change perception and the secondary task was a computational task. Results showed that participants' performance in a single task was statistically significantly different from their performance in combined tasks: (a) algebra problems (algebra problem primary and auditory perception secondary); (b) auditory perception tasks (auditory perception primary and algebra problems secondary); and (c) mean false-alarm score in auditory perception (auditory detection primary and algebra problems secondary). Using signal detection theory (SDT), participants' performance measured in terms of sensitivity was calculated as ?0.54 for combined tasks (algebra problems the primary task) and ?0.53 auditory perceptions the primary task. During auditory perception tasks alone, SDT was found to be 2.51. Performance was 83% in a single task compared to 17% when combined tasks.     

北京某污水处理厂污泥重金属污染特征、潜在生态风险及健康风险评价

连续采集了北京市某污水处理厂污泥,样品经过微波消解后利用ICP-OES测定重金属含量,同时,利用BCR连续提取分析方法分析了污泥中重金属赋存形态.在分析测定污泥中Pb、Zn、Cd、Cr、As、Ni、Cu 7种重金属含量及形态的基础上,开展了污泥重金属污染水平评价、潜在生态风险评价及健康风险评价.结果表明,污泥中重金属含量最高的是Zn,含量为930.08 mg·kg-1,残渣态及可提取态所占比例最高的元素分别是Pb和Ni,所占比例分别为80.86%及18.84%;污泥重金属综合污染指数为4.84,属重度污染;污泥重金属潜在环境综合风险指数为237.60,属极高生态风险.基于健康风险评价模型建立两条暴露途径,分别对儿童及成人进行健康风险评价,得出儿童非致癌指数及致癌指数分别为2.02×10-1和1.44×10-4,而成人非致癌指数及致癌指数分别为7.21×10-2和5.13×10-5.     

典型北方滨海核电厂温排水混合区边缘温升限值研究

随着我国电力事业的快速发展,电厂循环冷却水(温排水)的余热排放对受纳水体生态环境造成的负面热影响(即热污染)已日益引起社会关注。基于国内现有的温排水排放控制标准可执行性不强的现状,对我国电厂温排水的热污染控制标准的基础技术要素——温排水混合区边缘温升限值进行了研究。以我国北方某典型滨海核电厂址邻近海域的代表性海洋生物为研究对象,以各季节不同受试物种最大临界温度(CTM)的统计分析结果,作为确定该厂址温排水混合区边缘温升限值的主要依据。并结合法规调研法,最终确定该典型滨海核电厂址温排水混合区边缘温升限值的推荐值为3.6℃。     

高效串型深海环境腐蚀试验技术

从海洋资源开发和军事应用等方面分析了发展材料深海环境腐蚀试验技术的紧迫性和必要性,综述了美国、前苏联、印度、挪威等国家深海腐蚀的试验方法、技术和研究进展,总结了深海环境腐蚀试验的发展概况。针对中国船舶重工集团公司第七二五研究所开发的高效串型深海环境试验装置,对其结构、功能、水下静态受力状态以及试验方法进行了简要介绍,同时阐述了深海环境腐蚀试验技术对我国的重要性以及未来发展前景。     

天津市海洋环境风险综合评价研究

评价结果显示:天津海域总体上处于中低风险态势,中低风险海域面积分别约占海域面积的59.18%和24.90%;高风险海域占海域面积的比例为15.92%,碎片化地分布于近岸的汉沽大神堂牡蛎礁海洋特别保护区、北塘旅游区、大港湿地、天津港、南港工业区等敏感或重点海域.评价成果可为天津海洋环境风险管控、海域资源使用配置、海洋环境保护规划等提供有益借鉴.     

基于受体易损性分析的环境风险综合评价方法研究

针对我国现有环境风险评价体系中缺乏对自然环境、人工环境损失进行量化评价这一问题,在以往研究的基础上,建立了符合我国特点的受体易损性区划指标体系与量化模型,结合事故影响预测,建立了风险值计算方法,并提出了基于Bootstrap算法的环境风险可接受水平确定方法,由此构建了一套新的环境风险综合评价方法体系。     

Cost‐Effectiveness of Alternative Conservation Strategies with Application to the Pacific Leatherback Turtle

Although holistic conservation addressing all sources of mortality for endangered species or stocks is the preferred conservation strategy, limited budgets require a criterion to prioritize conservation investments. We compared the cost‐effectiveness of nesting site and at‐sea conservation strategies for Pacific leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea). We sought to determine which conservation strategy or mix of strategies would produce the largest increase in population growth rate per dollar. Alternative strategies included protection of nesters and their eggs at nesting beaches in Indonesia, gear changes, effort restrictions, and caps on turtle takes in the Hawaiian (U.S.A.) longline swordfish fishery, and temporal and area closures in the California (U.S.A.) drift gill net fishery. We used a population model with a biological metric to measure the effects of conservation alternatives. We normalized all effects by cost to prioritize those strategies with the greatest biological effect relative to its economic cost. We used Monte Carlo simulation to address uncertainty in the main variables and to calculate probability distributions for cost‐effectiveness measures. Nesting beach protection was the most cost‐effective means of achieving increases in leatherback populations. This result creates the possibility of noncompensatory bycatch mitigation, where high‐bycatch fisheries invest in protecting nesting beaches. An example of this practice is U.S. processors of longline tuna and California drift gill net fishers that tax themselves to finance low‐cost nesting site protection. Under certain conditions, fisheries interventions, such as technologies that reduce leatherback bycatch without substantially decreasing target species catch, can be cost‐effective. Reducing bycatch in coastal areas where bycatch is high, particularly adjacent to nesting beaches, may be cost‐effective, particularly, if fisheries in the area are small and of little commercial value. Rentabilidad de Estrategias de Conservación Alternativas Aplicadas a Tortugas Laúd del Pacífico