基于AIC准则优选AR模型研究我国生产事故

目前,由于生产力水平低,安全投入不足,安全监管体制不健全等因素,国内生产安全事故仍然居高不下.将基于AIC准则进行 AR 模型优选的方法应用到我国工矿死亡人数预测中,为事故预测统计提供一种新方法,预测结果将为预防生产安全事故提供依据.     

不同来源污泥接种餐厨垃圾厌氧发酵产氢效果研究

在相同接种配比(接种污泥占餐厨垃圾的质量分数为30%)条件下,研究了4种不同来源污泥(压滤污泥、厌氧污泥、曝气污泥和河底淤泥)添加或不添加缓冲剂时对餐厨垃圾厌氧发酵产氢效果的影响.结果发现,在不添加缓冲剂时.4种污泥接种餐厨垃圾厌氧发酵平均产氢量依次为厌氧污泥>河底淤泥>压滤污泥>曝气污泥,接种厌氧污泥的餐厨垃圾平均产氢量最高,达10.11mL(以每克挥发性固体(VS)计,下同);而添加缓冲剂时.4种污泥接种餐厨垃圾厌氧发酵平均产氢量依次为厌氧污泥>曝气污泥>压滤污泥>河底淤泥,接种厌氧污泥的餐厨垃圾平均产氢量也最高,为33.72 mL,且体系pH得以缓冲.     

亚硝酸盐反硝化颗粒污泥的二次启动试验研究

接种0～4℃贮存2个月亚硝酸盐反硝化颗粒污泥,以甲醇为电子供体、亚硝酸盐为电子受体在USB(上流式污泥床)反应器内进行二次启动。结果显示,在逐步提高进水负荷下,约46 d完成了反应器二次启动,污泥床负荷达到3.43 g N/（L·d）,NO₂-N去除率为99%;在稳定运行阶段,当进水NO₂-N浓度为50 mg/L、负荷从1.7 g N/（L·d）逐步提高至5.1 g N/（L·d）时,NO₂-N去除率均大于98%;当表观流速为2.68 m/h、进水负荷逐步提高至8.0 g N/（L·d）时,脱氮率下降至63%,过程中污泥床最大去除速率约为5.7 g N/（L·d）。研究认为,亚硝酸盐颗粒污泥床具有稳定和去除效率高等特点。     

Energy efficiency and conservation for individual Americans

Americans make up only 4% of the world population, yet currently consume 25% of the world’s fossil fuels. The U.S. imports 63% of its oil and it is predicted that by 2020 the U.S. will be importing 95% of its oil resources. Over the past century, ample and affordable supplies of fossil fuels have powered the growth and prosperity of the economies of the US and other countries. Within this century, world oil supplies will decline while demand is projected to continue to increase, suggesting that we will have to transition to different fuels or become much more energy efficient or both. Looking ahead to the near decades, estimates are that consumers will have to reduce their energy use by at least 50%. This reduction will be necessary in large part due the decline in the availability of conventional oil and gas, but also because the U.S. population will continue to grow in number. Although government action is important, individuals too often discount their ability to make significant contributions to solving such major problems. This investigation identifies how informed and concerned individuals can collectively conserve fossil energy. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue. An erratum to this article can be found at     

化工储罐区空袭次生灾害危险性评价研究

根据化工储罐区及其遭空袭次生灾害的特点,以空袭次生灾害的影响范围作为危险性评价的标准,对化工储罐区的空袭次生灾害进行危险性评价。指出储罐遭空袭后的3种毁伤方式;给出储罐遭空袭发生的次生灾害及其扩散的形式与后果;阐述了化工储罐区空袭次生灾害的成灾机理;分别提出热辐射伤害、冲击波伤害和有毒有害物质扩散的危险性评价方法。以池火灾为例,建立了池火灾的危险性评价模型;论述了池火灾危险性评价的具体流程,并进行了案例分析,根据计算结果提出了相应的减灾对策。笔者认为,化工储罐区遭空袭后的次生灾害的危险性评价具有现实意义,对于化工园区、石化厂、危化品仓库等突发安全事故产生次生灾害的危险性评价同样具有重要的参考价值。     

油气生产过程中集输设施安全管理问题研究

针对油气生产中集输设施安全问题导致的油气泄漏引发的问题,以系统的方法分析其观念、技术、方法对集输设施管理的影响。围绕石油企业降本增效和可持续发展战略目标,从投资、建设、管理、养护各环节,管理体制、运行机制、管理方式等各方面系统研究,通过明确职能、落实责任、制定标准、严格程序、科学奖惩、强化管理等手段,从而树立正确管理理念,完善设施投入机制、监督考核机制、激励约束机制,强化企业管理基础工作等方面,提出与该系统工艺流程相适应的管理模式和方法,以管理优化保障工艺优化,延长设施使用寿命,提高系统运行效率,确保安全生产。     

Population biology of the annual grassTriplasis purpurea in relation to distance from shore on Staten Island, New York

Four populations of the native annual grassTriplasis purpurea were surveyed on coastal beaches along the south shore of Staten Island, NY, to determine the potential of this species to colonize shoreline habitats mostly devoid of other vegetation. If the species can establish and maintain dense populations, it may have conservation value for urban beaches disturbed by human activities. For two populations, survivorship, growth, and reproduction were monitored at different distances from shore to determine the ability of this species to maintain viable populations. At three sites,T. purpurea occurred in >75% of all quadrats and the highest density was 1195 plants/m² at 74 m from shore in one recently disturbed site. Density generally increased with increasing distances from shore at low tide (from ca. 40 – 90 m). Plants showed the greatest growth and reproduction at close distances to shore (30 – 40 m); part of this effect was due to density in one population, but when density effects were removed statistically, there still remained a decline in growth and reproduction with increasing distance from shore. Improved vigor nearest to shore may be due to continual sand deposition. Survivorship showed a Type I pattern, with low mortality throughout the growing season. By colonizing newly-deposited and continually shifting sands,T. purpurea can contribute to the earliest stages of ecological succession along disturbed beaches in eastern North America and may be valuable to the development and management of urban coastal plant communities.     

Population biology of the annual grass Triplasis purpurea in relation to distance from shore on Staten Island, New York

Four populations of the native annual grassTriplasis purpurea were surveyed on coastal beaches along the south shore of Staten Island, NY, to determine the potential of this species to colonize shoreline habitats mostly devoid of other vegetation. If the species can establish and maintain dense populations, it may have conservation value for urban beaches disturbed by human activities. For two populations, survivorship, growth, and reproduction were monitored at different distances from shore to determine the ability of this species to maintain viable populations. At three sites,T. purpurea occurred in >75% of all quadrats and the highest density was 1195 plants/m² at 74 m from shore in one recently disturbed site. Density generally increased with increasing distances from shore at low tide (from ca. 40–90 m). Plants showed the greatest growth and reproduction at close distances to shore (30–40 m); part of this effect was due to density in one population, but when density effects were removed statistically, there still remained a decline in growth and reproduction with increasing distance from shore. Improved vigor nearest to shore may be due to continual sand deposition. Survivorship showed a Type I pattern, with low mortality throughout the growing season. By colonizing newly-deposited and continually shifting sands,T. purpurea can contribute to the earliest stages of ecological succession along disturbed beaches in eastern North America and may be valuable to the development and management of urban coastal plant communities.     

Research on carbon emissions in China's export trade based on input-output model

Becoming the world’s largest emitter of carbon makes China the object of criticism;however,people may ignore the fact that when China exports low-carbon products,the carbon emissions have been left in the meanwhile,forming the so-called"embodied carbon".Using the input-output model,this paper analyzes the carbon emission intensity and amount of embodied carbon of various sectors in China’s export trade in 2002 and 2007,and filters out high carbon emission sectors.In addition,this paper also points out the problem of carbon emissions’international transfer from developed countries to China through the analysis of national and regional flow of export carbon emissions and changing of the proportion of emissions for exports relative to total emissions,and explains the reason that caused carbon transfer to China by using the treadmill of production theory.Based on that,this paper proposes some measures for carbon reduction in China from the foreign trade perspective.     

Sustainability： A view from the wind-eroded field

This article explores the assessment of sustainability in fields subject to wind erosion. In the first part, simple sustainability audits are examined, as of soil depth and nutrients. Direct measurement of these characteristics has many problems, largely because of huge variability in space and time at all scales. Modelling still has its problems, but it may be possible to overcome many of them soon. It is true that wind erosion preferentially removes soil nutrients, but there are imponderables even here. The nutrient balance in many of these soils includes considerable input from dust. In West Africa, it has been shown that the amounts of calcium and potassium that are added in dust are sufficient to fertilize dispersed crops. In mildly acidic sandy soils, such as those found on the widespread palaeo- aeolian deposits, much of the phosphorus is fixed and unavailable to plants by the time it is removed by wind erosion, so that erosion has no added downside. Most of the nutrients carried by dust have been shown to travel close to the ground （even when they are attached to dust-sized particles）, and so are trapped in nearby fallow strips, and are thus not lost to the farming system. Second, the sustalnabillty of a whole semi-arid farming system is explored. Wind erosion in semi-arid areas （like China, the Sahel and Norflawestern Europe） generally takes place on aeolian deposits of the recent geological past. Most of these soils are deep enough to withstand centuries of wind erosion before they are totally lost to production, and some of these soils have greater fertility at greater depth （so that wind erosion may even improve the soil）. Finally some remarks are made about environmental change in relation to sustainability.