季节性Kendall检验分析湘江长沙段水质变化趋势

季节性Kendall检验是一种广泛应用于河流水质变化趋势分析的非参数检验。以湘江长沙段三汊矶断面2001—2011年水质监测结果为样本,运用季节性Kendall检验分析湘江长沙段水质变化趋势及影响因素,结果表明:氨氮浓度呈显著上升趋势,总磷浓度呈高度显著上升趋势,总镉、总砷浓度呈高度显著下降趋势,湘江长沙段水质主要受城市生活、工业和农业面源污染物排放的影响,河水流量对水质的影响相对较小。     

市政污泥用于矿区土壤改良的污染风险评估及配比分析

通过土柱淋溶试验,分析了市政污泥在矿山土壤改良中重金属污染风险,探讨了市政污泥用于矿区土壤改良的可行性,并确定了土壤污泥最佳混掺比例。结果表明:景山高岭土矿区土壤除速效磷含量较高外,其余养分含量分级为四—五级,即"低—很低";市政污泥除速效钾含量较低外,其余养分含量分级均远大于一级"很高";永春污水处理厂污泥为B级农用污泥,可施用于油料作物、果树、饲料作物、纤维作物,不能施用于蔬菜、粮食作物;按各处理配比进行污泥的适量施用造成地下水污染风险较小;综合考虑土壤肥力及重金属污染因素,该矿区最佳土壤、市政污泥干重混掺比为5∶2。     

Using long-term data for a reintroduced population to empirically estimate future consequences of inbreeding

Inbreeding depression is an important long-term threat to reintroduced populations. However, the strength of inbreeding depression is difficult to estimate in wild populations because pedigree data are inevitably incomplete and because good data are needed on survival and reproduction. Predicting future population consequences is especially difficult because this also requires projecting future inbreeding levels and their impacts on long-term population dynamics, which are subject to many uncertainties. We illustrate how such projections can be derived through Bayesian state-space modeling methods based on a 26-year data set for North Island Robins (Petroica longipes) reintroduced to Tiritiri Matangi Island in 1992. We used pedigree data to model increases in the average inbreeding level (F ) over time based on kinship of possible breeding pairs and to estimate empirically N_e/N (effective/census population size). We used multiple imputation to model the unknown components of inbreeding coefficients, which allowed us to estimate effects of inbreeding on survival for all 1458 birds in the data set while modeling density dependence and environmental stochasticity. This modeling indicated that inbreeding reduced juvenile survival (1.83 lethal equivalents [SE 0.81]) and may have reduced subsequent adult survival (0.44 lethal equivalents [0.81]) but had no apparent effect on numbers of fledglings produced. Average inbreeding level increased to 0.10 (SE 0.001) as the population grew from 33 (0.3) to 160 (6) individuals over the 25 years, giving a ratio of 0.56 (0.01). Based on a model that also incorporated habitat regeneration, the population was projected to reach a maximum of 331–1144 birds (median 726) in 2130, then to begin a slow decline. Without inbreeding, the population would be expected stabilize at 887–1465 birds (median 1131). Such analysis, therefore, makes it possible to empirically derive the information needed for rational decisions about inbreeding management while accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty.     

Quantifying the squeezing or stretching of fisheries as they adapt to displacement by marine reserves

The designation of no‐take marine reserves involves social and economic concerns due to the resulting displacement of fishing effort, when fishing rights are removed from those who traditionally fished within an area. Displacement can influence the functioning of the fishery and success of the reserve, yet levels of displacement are seldom quantified after reserve implementation and very rarely before that. We devised a simple analytical framework based on set theory to facilitate reserve placement. Implementation of the framework requires maps of fishing grounds, fishing effort, or catch per unit effort for at least 2 years. The framework quantifies the level of conflict that a reserve designation might cause in the fishing sector due to displacement and the opportunities to offset the conflict through fisher spatial mobility (i.e., ability of fishers to fish elsewhere). We also considered how the outputs of the framework can be used to identify targeted management interventions for each fishery. We applied the method in Honduras, where the largest marine protected area in Central America is being placed, for which spatial data on fishing effort were available for 6 fisheries over 3 years. The proposed closure had a greater negative impact on the shrimp and lobster scuba fisheries, which concentrated respectively 28% and 18% of their effort inside the reserve. These fisheries could not accommodate the displacement within existing fishing grounds. Both would be forced to stretch into new fishing grounds, which are available but are of unknown quality. These stakeholders will likely require compensation to offset costly exploratory fishing or to travel to fishing grounds farther away from port.     

营口近岸海域污染现状调查分析

无机氮和活性磷酸盐是营口近岸海域的特征污染物,对营口近岸海域造成了一定程度的污染。通过对营口近岸海域污染调查分析,提出了控制改善这种状况的建议和措施。     

砒砂岩区不同留茬高度及坡向下沙棘根系分形特征

为提高内蒙古砒砂岩区沙棘(Hippophae rhamnoides)人工林根系的生长能力,对东(E)、南(S)、西(W)、北(N)不同坡向沙棘植株进行了距地表0、10、15、20 cm(即a、b、c、d)留茬高度处理,而根系分形特征是植物根系构型应对环境异质性的表型可塑性,为反映沙棘根系对不同坡向不同留茬生长环境的适应...     

人工园林大面积种植区土地利用/覆被变化对生态系统服务价值影响

近10a来由于经济利益的驱动,橡胶、茶园、咖啡和桉树等人工园林在云南省西南部西盟县大规模种植,使土地利用结构和布局发生了较大变化,影响了种植区的生态系统服务价值。以西盟县为研究对象,基于2000年、2005年和2010年的遥感影像解译的土地利用/覆被数据,参照"中国生态系统单位面积生态服务价值当量",修订了西盟县生态系统单位面积服务价值,结合敏感度分析,探讨了土地利用/覆被变化及其对生态系统服务价值的影响。结果表明:(1)2000~2010年西盟县的耕地、园地、水域和乡镇用地面积增加,林地和草地面积减少,西南部的土地利用/覆盖类型相互转化主要表现在林地和耕地转化为园地,而东北部表现在林地转化为耕地;(2)从时间上看,生态系统服务价值呈减少趋势,10 a间净减少106.29×106元,林地的生态系统服务价值始终最高;(3)研究期内,只有食物生产服务有价值量的增加,其余生态系统服务的价值量均为不同程度的减少;(4)从空间上看,西盟县生态系统服务价值东北部和东南部高,西部、中部和东部低。力所乡生态系统服务价值有小幅度增加,其余乡镇均呈减少趋势。西盟县以经济利益为目的的发展模式给生态系统服务和可持续发展带来巨大压力,在一定程度上使区域整体生态效应下降。因此,西盟县的发展应该在保证生态系统稳定的前提下,适当发展园地,同时优化土地利用结构,在生态效益和经济利益之间,找到双赢的平衡点。     

鄱阳湖水位-淹水面积关系不确定性的分析

湖泊淹水范围的时空变化特征往往决定了湖泊湿地的景观结构和功能。鄱阳湖是我国最大淡水湖,水位和淹水范围的季节变化悬殊,鄱阳湖淹水特征对研究鄱阳湖湿地生态系统的结构与功能都具有显著意义,过去很多研究关注鄱阳湖水位-淹水面积关系,不同的研究者得到的水位-淹水面积关系各有差异,表现出一定的不确定性。利用多时相的卫星遥感影像提取的鄱阳湖水面面积的基础上,结合鄱阳湖长时间序列的水位观测资料,探讨鄱阳湖水位-淹水面积关系不确定的原因。研究结果表明:(1)尽管鄱阳湖水面面积与水位表现分段线性关系,但在相同水位条件下,鄱阳湖水面面积表现出较大的不确定性;(2)鄱阳湖水位表现南高北低的空间异质性格局,随着水位增加,鄱阳湖水位的空间异质性降低,并且水面坡降具有季相性,相同水位下退水期的水面坡降大于涨水期的水面坡降;(3)受洲滩地形和"堑秋湖"渔业方式的影响,相同水位下退水期出露洲滩中子湖泊的水面范围大于涨水期中子湖泊水面范围;(4)此外,鄱阳湖采砂显著改变采沙场的湖盆地形,从而改变低水位下的主要采沙场的淹水范围。综上所述,鄱阳湖水位-淹水面积关系的不确定性除了受湖盆地形、"五河"来水、长江顶托等自然原因,还有采砂和堑秋湖渔业方式等人类活动的原因。     

基于GEV干旱指数和DFA方法的苏北地区季节性干旱研究

为分析近年来江苏省苏北地区季节性干旱灾害特征,利用苏北五市1989~2013年的逐月降水量资料,建立月降水量的广义极值分布函数,通过分析广义极值干旱指数(GEVI),研究苏北五市近25a的季节性干旱分布和干旱等级的时空变化特点。在此基础上,利用去趋势波动分析方法(DFA)对苏北五市月平均降水量的周期性规律进行研究。结果表明,苏北五市的月降水量均服从广义极值Fréchet概率分布,且具有从西北(徐州)地区向东南沿海(盐城)地区递增的空间分布特征,整体上属于干旱灾害频发的地区,且以轻旱为主且季节性特征明显。苏北五市的月降水量存在幂律相关性,即降水量具有较强的正长程相关性,因此,未来苏北地区干旱的总体趋势将与过去特征正相关。     

皖南丘陵地区小流域氮素径流输出的动态变化

以亚热带北部皖南丘陵地区小流域定位实地观测为基础 ,研究了农林共存小流域氮素径流输出规律。发现小流域氮素径流输出季节性变化明显。降雨和施肥是影响这一变化的重要因子 ,模拟分析表明 ,它们与氮素输出之间具有很好的线性相关关系