Regional analysis of global change impacts: Concepts, tools and first results

The paper introduces an approach for the analysis of global change impacts on river basins or regions. This approach is quite general and can be transferred to any region or river basin of interest on earth. The first application of the approach was in the Elbe river basin, with primary focus on the hydrologic model part and on the integration of crop growth and nitrogen dynamics. Finally, concepts for the integration of socio-economic aspects in the analysis are introduced.     

Certification of Highly Complex Safety-Related Systems

The BIA has now 15 years of experience with the certification of complex electronic systems for safety-related applications in the machinery sector. Using the example of machining centres, this presentation will show the systematic procedure for verifying and validating control systems using Application Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs) and microcomputers for safety functions.

One section will describe the control structure of machining centres with control systems using “ integrated safety.” A diverse redundant architecture combined with crossmonitoring and forced dynamisation is explained. In the main section the steps of the systematic certification procedure are explained showing some results of the certification of drilling machines. Specification reviews, design reviews with test case specification, statistical analysis, and walk-throughs are the analytical measures in the testing process. Systematic tests based on the test case specification, Electro Magnetic Interference (EMI) and environmental testing, and site acceptance tests on the machines are the testing measures for validation.

A complex software driven system is always undergoing modification. Most of the changes are not safety-relevant but this has to be proven. A systematic procedure for certifying software modifications is presented in the last section of the paper.     

Assessing the Relationship Between Landscape Patterns and Nonpoint‐Source Pollution in the Danjiangkou Reservoir Basin in China1

Abstract: The constrained ordination method from quantitative ecology was utilized to assess the relationship between landscape patterns and nonpoint‐source (NPS) pollution for the purpose of identifying effective water‐quality improvement practices in Danjiangkou Reservoir (DJKR) basin, China. The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) was applied to simulate NPS pollution and the Fragstats model was applied to calculate the landscape metrics. The study concluded that organic nutrients formed the main NPS pollutant in the DJKR basin and that most of the NPS pollution occurred along with soil loss. Based on partial redundancy analysis, the conclusion that landscape metrics were significantly correlated to NPS pollution indices was obtained. Specifically, the composition of LULC (land use/land cover) was the most effective factor to estimate NPS pollution. Dry cultivated land was identified as the main source of NPS pollution, and paddy fields were characterized with the most intensive soluble nutrients loss. In addition, the reason that fragmented and complex landscape patterns exacerbate NPS pollution was that natural landscape composed most of this area. Moreover, the fragmented natural landscape indicated intensive agricultural activities that were the crucial trigger for NPS pollution. Combined with the economic condition in China, Conversion of Cropland to Forests Program (CCFP) should be conducted selectively and gradually in the DJKR basin.     

Urban forest landscape patterns in Ma'anshan City,China

The landscape pattern of Ma'anshan City was analyzed based on theories and methodologies of landscape ecology, remote sensing, global positioning, and a geographic information system (GIS). The study area encompassed the entire built-up area of 63.88 km²; a north–south transect 3-km wide and 13-km long was established along the long axis of the city. Five major landscape elements were assessed: urban land, urban forest, agriculture, water, and grass. Urban land was the dominant land cover type, and occupied 67% of total land area; while patches of urban forest occupied 16%, with a landscape element dominance of 0.42. Urban forest was classified according to land-use category and location into six types: scenic forest, yard forest, recreational forest, roadside forest, shelter forest, and nurseries. There were 2464 urban forest patches, the largest being 185.1 ha, with an average of 0.43 ha. The low nearest neighbor index and high patch density indicated that urban forest patches tend to be aggregated and have a high degree of fragmentation. This study also demonstrated that the spatial pattern of urbanization could be quantified using a combination of landscape metrics and gradient analysis. Urban forest has distinct spatial characters that are dependent on specific landscape metrics along the urbanization gradient.     

Analysis of Environmental and Socio-economic Determinants Affecting Population Longevity Level at County Level in China

Abstract

Based on the current literature, this paper is mainly intended to test whether environmental factors and socio-economic factors will have direct effect on the longevity at county level in China in order to determine the major determinants affecting local longevity level. Using the multi-regression model, we find the result that factors such as temperature, climate, longitude, type of soils, as well as type of agricultural food production play a major role in shaping the longevity at county level, and that socioeconomic factors like infant mortality and gross death rate also have some direct impact on longevity, but the degree of impact is not as strong as the above environmental factors.     

基于景观生态学的广州城镇建设用地扩张模式分析

在遥感和GIS技术支持下,提取了广州市老八区（以2000年行政区划为准）1978—2005年四个时段的建设用地面积,结合景观指数,从建设用地变化的数量、速度和时空扩张模式几个方面探讨了1978—2005年间三个不同阶段的城市扩张规律。结果表明：（1）广州市建设用地快速扩张,在1978—2005年期间,总面积增加了47158.94,其中1978—1990、1990—2000、2000—2005三个时期的建设用地年扩张速度一直呈上升趋势,分别为：1395.42hm2·a-1、1699.92hm2·a-1、2682.93hm2·a-1。（2）三种扩展类型中,蔓延式扩张是广州市建设用地扩张的主要类型,各时期所占扩展总面积的比例分别为：71.2%、60.5%、47.7%,呈下降的趋势;与此相反的是填充式扩张,随着城市化的发展呈上升趋势,所占比例分别为：9.3%、31.7%、46.4%;跳跃式扩张仅在第一时段较高为19.7%,而后两个时段较低,分别为7.8%和5.9%。通过研究为城市模式研究提供了详细且准确的数据,为寻求优良扩张模式奠定了一定的基础。     

三峡库区景观格局粒度效应及其对土地利用变化过程的响应

1992—2012年,受大型水利工程建设影响,三峡库区土地利用/覆被发生剧烈变化,论文选取工程建设重要时点1992、2002、2006和2012年的土地利用覆被图,探讨景观格局指数在30~1 000 m粒度范围内的粒度效应及其对土地利用变化过程的响应。结果表明：1）所选取的27个景观指数中,有14个对空间粒度变化高度敏感、3个中度敏感、7个低敏感、3个不敏感;不同类型景观（除裸地外）粒度效应规律相似。2）景观格局指数随粒度变粗呈5种变化规律：单调下降、单调上升、阶梯状上升、无明显变化、先增大后迅速下降。形状指数粒度效应对土地利用变化过程的响应明显,聚集度指数、面积-边缘指数、多样性指数随土地利用变化的特征不受粒度粗细影响。因此,景观格局分析最适宜粒度范围为30~60 m。3）1992—2012年三峡库区整体景观异质性增大、优势度降低、呈小斑块密集格局;耕地面积急剧下降、破碎化加剧,林地面积稳步提升,连通性提高。     

辽西大凌河流域土地利用变化及驱动力分析

从政策、流域综合治理、经济发展和技术进步、农民认知态度等4方面对影响大凌河流域土地利用变化的驱动力进行了分析。同时运用农户问卷调查和驱动力分析结果,选取影响耕地变化的社会经济和人口因子,运用主成分分析和多元迭代回归分析确定影响耕地变化的主要因子,并拟合出耕地变化的最优度模型。研究结果表明:在1987—2002年期间,农田和未利用荒地面积在不断减小,而林地、果园、草地在不断增加,但1995年后变化边际度大大减小;主成分分析表明影响土地利用变化主要影响因子是农业人口(A-POP)、总人口(T-POP)、农村经济收入(TIRE)、农林牧渔收入(IAFAF)和第三产业总产值(GTI);多元迭代回归分析表明耕地面积变化的最优回归模型中主变量是农业人口(A-POP)、总人口(T-POP)、农村经济收入(TIRE),这些变量能够解释95.1%的耕地变化。     

Measuring biological diversity using Euclidean metrics

We study the complementary use of Rao's theory of diversity (1986) and Euclidean metrics. The first outcome is a Euclidean diversity coefficient. This index allows to measure the diversity in a set of species beyond their relative abundances using biological information about the dissimilarity between the species. It also involves geometrical interpretations and graphical representations. Moreover, several populations (e.g., different sites) can be compared using a Euclidean dissimilarity coefficient derived from the Euclidean diversity coefficient. These proposals are used to compare breeding bird communities living in comparable habitat gradients in different parts of the world.