陕南地区清代霜雪灾害及分形特征研究

通过对陕南清代历史文献资料的搜集、整理和分析,研究了清代(1644-1911年)陕南霜雪灾害等级、阶段变化及不同等级灾害周期性等。统计分析显示,陕南清代发生霜雪灾害28次,平均每9.57年发生一次;霜雪灾害可划分为轻度、中度、重度三级,各占灾害总频次的21%,72%和7%;清代霜雪灾害可分为4个阶段,其中1644-1668年和1819-1868年的第1、第3阶段为灾害多发期,而1669-1818年和1869-1911年的第2、第4阶段为灾害少发期。霜雪灾害的自相似性揭示了灾害的分形性,分形结果显示陕南地区清代各等级灾害呈周期变化,且这些灾害的集中性非常强。陕南清代轻度、中度和重度霜雪灾害发生分别存在着16～18 a,7～8 a和46 a振荡周期。该地区霜雪灾害的发生主要是偏暖月的持续性降雪、积雪或由寒流引起的气温骤降造成的。初步确定陕南清代发生了两次霜雪灾害气候事件,时间在公元1649-1663年和1817-1842年。     

Ageism: A Factor in the Nutritional Vulnerability of Older People?

Unlike other population groups, the rights, needs and contributions of older people in developing countries are not well understood. With the absence of information about how to assess the nutritional status and vulnerability of older people, HelpAge International joined forces with the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine in the early 1990s to launch a research programme. Seven years later some of the basic questions can now be answered but there remains much more to do.
Although older people are increasingly acknowledged as a vulnerable group in emergencies, NGO responses often fail to meet their needs. The question is whether there are real difficulties in service adaptation or whether ageism is one of the greatest barriers to the provision of appropriate services for older people.     

江西定南县离子型稀土尾矿周边水体氮污染状况与分布特征

为探究\"稀土王国\"江西省赣南地区离子型稀土矿对周边水体环境的影响,以离子型稀土矿分布密集区定南县濂江月子河流域和龙迳河龙头流域为研究对象,综合分析研究区特征污染物ρ（NH₄+-N）空间分布特征,采用相关性分析和主成分分析揭示其主要污染来源及影响因素.结果表明:①离子型稀土矿停产整顿半年后,濂江月子河流域和龙迳河龙头流域ρ（NH₄+-N）超过1.00和2.00 mg/L的采样点分别达72%和68%;pH范围为2.95~7.66,平均值分别为6.23和5.53,水体总体上偏酸性;ρ（TN）、ρ（NH₄+-N）、EC与ρ（NO₃--N）变异系数较大,均介于0.80~1.50之间.②相关性分析结果显示,ρ（NH₄+-N）与ρ（TN）、EC均呈极显著正相关（P < 0.01）;ρ（NH₄+-N）与pH呈显著负相关（P < 0.05）.③流经稀土尾矿区的水体中ρ（NH₄+-N）随距离增加呈现明显的空间梯度分布特征,即距稀土矿区边界200 m处水体中ρ（NH₄+-N）最高（12.20~200.00 mg/L）,其次为1.15 km内（3.69~11.80 mg/L）及3.5 km以上水体（0.80~1.51 mg/L）,矿区周边未受到采矿活动影响的水体中ρ（NH₄+-N）最低（0.03~0.15 mg/L）.④PCA结果表明,2条河流的主要环境影响因子为ρ（TN）、ρ（NH₄+-N）、pH和EC,主要受到周边稀土矿山尾矿的强烈影响.研究显示,离子型稀土矿原位浸矿开采停产半年后,重点小流域水体中ρ（NH₄+-N）高概率超标的现状仍然存在,受稀土开采活动影响较大.建议进一步开展重点小流域NH₄+-N剩余\"库容\"精算和矿山周边地表水定期监测.      

Hydrologic and land use impacts on vegetation growth and NPP at the watershed scale in a semi-arid environment

Significant, adverse climatic change and drastically increased demographic pressure have strongly affected, in recent years, the hydrology and environment in the semi-arid Sahel region of West Africa. Marked rain deficits have coincided with increased water runoff, meaning less water availability for the vegetation. Conversely, changes in vegetation cover have had strong repercussions on the hydrologic cycle. To study these phenomena, the coupling of two explicit, process-based models, of catchment hydrology and of mixed vegetation cover, respectively, has been undertaken and applied to a 2 km² site in Niger. Some of the first significant results are presented herein. Some are consistent with intuitive judgments that can be made in the absence of a coupled model, others are much less so and show that representation through model coupling of hydrosphere/biosphere interactions is essential to produce more reliable analyses and projections. In particular, it is found that the relation of biomass productivity to rainfall under this dry, water-limited climate is not as straightforward as one would expect, more specifically, that its main control may not be the total season rainfall.     

Determinants for cassava production expansion in the semi-arid zone of West Africa

The study focuses on evaluating factors that farmers consider relevant in adopting cassava production in five semi-arid zone of West African countries. The study is based on primary data randomly collected as part of collaborative study of cassava in semiarid zones of Africa (COSCASSA) village level survey from five West African countries namely: Nigeria, Ghana, Chad, Niger and Burkina Faso. This study models effects of farm, farmer and technology specific factors on the decision of semi arid farmers to adopt cassava into their farming system. By way of threshold decision models—Probit and Logit models, the estimation of each country and the pooled data adoption models reveal different adoption models for the countries considered. For each country, different variables appeared as major adoption shifters. Comparatively, the adoption models for Nigeria and whole region appear to have the highest significance variables, being seven in number. This is followed by Chad (6), Ghana (4), and Burkina Faso and Niger with three each. For the variables considered, distance to nearby urban market appears a major adoption shifter in all the country, except for Niger. This is closely followed by contact with extension, variety, pest/disease resistance and livestock feeds, which appear significant in four of the countries. Membership of cooperative societies appears as the least adoption predictor, which is only significant in Chad republic. The study therefore recognizes the importance of varietial characteristics and farmers’ characteristics in acceptance of cassava as a major root tuber crop in the semi arid region of West Africa. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

Seasonal and spatial variability of Po,U and Pu levels in the river catchment area assessed by application of neural-network based classification

The present study deals with the application of self-organizing maps (SOM) in order to model, classify and interpret seasonal and spatial variability of ²¹⁰Po, ²³⁸U and ^239+240Pu levels in the Vistula river basin. The data set represents concentration values for 3 alpha emitters (²¹⁰Po, ²³⁸U and ^239+240Pu) measured in surface water samples collected at 19 different sampling locations (8 in major Vistula stream while 11 in right or left Vistula tributaries) during four seasons (winter, spring, summer and autumn) in the framework of a one-year quality monitoring study. The advantages of an SOM algorithm, its classification and visualization ability for environmental data sets, are stressed. The neural-network based classification made it possible to reveal specific patterns related to both seasonal and spatial variability. In the middle and upper part of Vistula catchment as well as in the right-shore tributaries, concentrations of ²¹⁰Po and ²³⁸U during summer and winter are the lowest. Concentrations of ²¹⁰Po and ²³⁸U increase significantly during spring and autumn in the Vistula river catchment, especially in the delta of Vistula river. High concentration of anthropogenic originated ^239+240Pu indicates “site-specific” character of pollution in two large left-shore tributaries located in the middle part of the Vistula drainage area. Efficient classification of sampling locations could lead to an optimization of river radiochemical sampling networks and to a better tracing of natural and anthropogenic changes along Vistula river stream.     

济南市南部山区降雨特性分析

通过对济南市南部山区50年降雨资料的分析,得出南部山区年降雨量为648mm,降雨季节性明显,降雨量主要集中在6-8月份的降雨特点;采用皮尔逊Ⅲ型曲线拟合了降雨频率曲线,分析了降雨量与频率之间的关系,得出年降雨量在1000mm以上的频率是2%,年降雨量在640mm以上的频率是50%。最后采用一维坡地径流模型对南部山区内的典型丘陵的产流量进行了模拟计算,模拟结果和实测值吻合较好。     

覆盖对南方红壤桔园生态系统的影响

连续４年观测了几种覆盖处理下红壤坡地桔园内气温、土温、土壤水分状况，土壤养分及土壤物理性状的差异，分析了造成这些差异的直接原因，提出地膜加草覆盖是南方红壤无灌溉条件坡地桔园最理想的覆盖方式之一。