Moving from trends to benchmarks by using regression tree analysis to find inbreeding thresholds in a critically endangered bird

Understanding how inbreeding affects endangered species in conservation breeding programs is essential for their recovery. The Hawaiian Crow (‘Alalā) (Corvus hawaiiensis) is one of the world's most endangered birds. It went extinct in the wild in 2002, and, until recent release efforts starting in 2016, nearly all of the population remained under human care for conservation breeding. Using pedigree inbreeding coefficients (F), we evaluated the effects of inbreeding on Hawaiian Crow offspring survival and reproductive success. We used regression tree analysis to identify the level of inbreeding (i.e., inbreeding threshold) that explains a substantial decrease in ‘Alalā offspring survival to recruitment. Similar to a previous study of inbreeding in ‘Alalā, we found that inbreeding had a negative impact on offspring survival but that parental (vs. artificial) egg incubation improved offspring survival to recruitment. Furthermore, we found that inbreeding did not substantially affect offspring reproductive success, based on the assumption that offspring that survive to adulthood breed with distantly related mates. Our novel application of regression tree analysis showed that offspring with inbreeding levels exceeding F = 0.098 were 69% less likely to survive to recruitment than more outbred offspring, providing a specific threshold value for ongoing population management. Our results emphasize the importance of assessing inbreeding depression across all life history stages, confirm the importance of prioritizing parental over artificial egg incubation in avian conservation breeding programs, and demonstrate the utility of regression tree analysis as a tool for identifying inbreeding thresholds, if present, in any pedigree-managed population.     

Using fisher-contributed secondary fins to fill critical shark-fisheries data gaps

Developing-world shark fisheries are typically not assessed or actively managed for sustainability; one fundamental obstacle is the lack of species and size-composition catch data. We tested and implemented a new and potentially widely applicable approach for collecting these data: mandatory submission of low-value secondary fins (anal fins) from landed sharks by fishers and use of the fins to reconstruct catch species and size. Visual and low-cost genetic identification were used to determine species composition, and linear regression was applied to total length and anal fin base length for catch-size reconstruction. We tested the feasibility of this approach in Belize, first in a local proof-of-concept study and then scaling it up to the national level for the 2017–2018 shark-fishing season (1,786 fins analyzed). Sixteen species occurred in this fishery. The most common were the Caribbean reef (Carcharhinus perezi), blacktip (C. limbatus), sharpnose (Atlantic [Rhizoprionodon terraenovae] and Caribbean [R. porosus] considered as a group), and bonnethead (Sphyrna cf. tiburo). Sharpnose and bonnethead sharks were landed primarily above size at maturity, whereas Caribbean reef and blacktip sharks were primarily landed below size at maturity. Our approach proved effective in obtaining critical data for managing the shark fishery, and we suggest the tools developed as part of this program could be exported to other nations in this region and applied almost immediately if there were means to communicate with fishers and incentivize them to provide anal fins. Outside the tropical Western Atlantic, we recommend further investigation of the feasibility of sampling of secondary fins, including considerations of time, effort, and cost of species identification from these fins, what secondary fin type to use, and the means with which to communicate with fishers and incentivize participation. This program could be a model for collecting urgently needed data for developing-world shark fisheries globally. Article impact statement: Shark fins collected from fishers yield data critical to shark fisheries management in developing nations.     

紫外光诱导荧光分析仪结合多元线性回归算法在城市河流常规污染指标监测中的应用

为建立一种针对城市河流水体常规污染指标的快速原位监测方法,首次运用紫外光诱导荧光分析仪对扬州市60条城市河流进行水体三维荧光光谱(EEM)测量,形成了具有多样性的水质样本集合.利用峰值拾取法、相关性分析和主成分分析3种方式从三维荧光光谱中提取溶解性有机物(DOM)污染信息,结合多元线性回归算法(MLR),建立与化学需氧...     

Diffusion of polybrominated diphenyl ether (PBDE) from an e-waste recycling area to the surrounding regions in Southeast China

Using Cinnamomum camphora (C. camphora) leaves as biomonitors, we investigated that the diffusion of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) from an e-waste recycling area to the surrounding regions. Variance in ∑₃₂PBDEs concentrations (0.46–399.93 ng g⁻¹ dry weight) in the leaves showed that PBDEs from the e-waste recycling area diffused into the surrounding regions, and resulted in a halo of PBDEs contamination, at least 74 km in radius. The attenuation of ∑₃₂PBDEs in the diffusing process fitted in log-linear regression. The difference in the attenuating slopes of linear equations among different directions can be explained by terrain and wind direction. The attenuation of PBDE congeners also fitted well in log-linear regression. The findings that similar attenuating slopes and characteristic travel distance among congeners suggest that the transport behavior of lower brominated congeners might not differ from that of higher brominated congeners in short-range scale.     

Weighted road density: A simple way of assigning traffic-related air pollution exposure

BackgroundExisting traffic variables used for predicting NO₂ in epidemiological studies are either difficult to acquire or explain only a small proportion of the variance. The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a new predictor, weighted road density, which combines the maximum amount of information related to traffic into a single variable without the requirement of obtaining traffic counts for a given area.MethodTwo week NO₂ samples were collected using the readings of up to 32 passive samplers on 3 separate rounds between September and December 2006 and again in 2007. Several types of traffic related explanatory variables based on traffic counts, distance to main road and the proposed weighted road density were constructed using GIS software, and tested for association with the NO₂ samplers. Assessment of the best model was based on R² values, as well as leave-one-out cross validation.ResultsThe weighted road density variable and the density variable based on traffic counts resulted in a similar R² (0.59) for predicting NO₂, although weighted road density was much easier to construct and outperformed other variables such as distance to main road.ConclusionAs well as being a powerful predictor for use in a land use regression model, weighted road density can be used as a proxy for exposure to traffic-related pollution, for use in circumstances where direct measurements of pollutant levels are not feasible or are not required.     

Dissecting the spatial scales of mercury accumulation in Ontario lake sediment

Total mercury concentration was analyzed in 171 lakes from pre-industrial (>30 cm depth; Hg_{pre-industrial}) and present-day sediments (0.5–1 cm; Hg_present-day). Numerous hot or cold spots of sediment mercury enrichment (Hg EF; Hg_{pre-industrial}/Hg_present-day) were evident as determined by local tests of autocorrelation, although in most cases, the maximum correlation among sites was not the nearest neighbor, indicating a strong influence of watershed characteristics. Hg EF was correlated with the area of open water (ha) (r = 0.91, p = 0.035), mine tailings (r = 0.94, p = 0.019), and organic deposits in surficial geology of the watershed (r = −0.91, p = 0.034). Through use of local rather than global regression coefficients, R² increased from 0.20 (p = 0.005) to 0.60 (p = 0.013). A broad spatial pattern (>500 km) observed only in Hg_{pre-industrial} was best explained by mean annual precipitation (shared variance = 3.5%), while finer spatial patterns only observed in Hg_present-day and Hg EF were best explained by pH (average shared variance = 10.8%).     

Data driven modelling of vertical atmospheric radiation

In the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI) there exists a unique set of meteorological measurements consisting of the values of vertical atmospheric levels of beta and gamma radiation. In this paper a stochastic data-driven model based on nonlinear regression and on nonhomogeneous Poisson process is suggested. In the first part of the paper, growth curves were used to establish an appropriate nonlinear regression model. For comparison we considered a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with its intensity based on growth curves. In the second part both approaches were applied to the real data and compared. Computational aspects are briefly discussed as well. The primary goal of this paper is to present an improved understanding of the distribution of environmental radiation as obtained from the measurements of the vertical radioactivity profiles by the radioactivity sonde system.     

Characterization of eco-cement paste produced from waste sludges

In this study, marble sludge, sewage sludge, drinking water treatment plant sludge, and basic oxygen furnace sludge were used as replacements for limestone, sand, clay, and iron slag, respectively, as the raw materials for the production of cement in order to produce eco-cement. It was found that it is feasible to use marble sludge to replace up to 50% of the limestone and also that other materials can serve as total replacements for the raw materials typically used in the production of cement. The major components of Portland cement were all found in eco-cement clinkers. The eco-cement was confirmed to produce calcium hydroxide and calcium silicate hydrates during the hydration process, increasing densification with the curing age. The compressive strength (S_c) and microstructural evaluations conducted at 28 d revealed the usefulness of eco-cement. It was observed that the S_c data correlated linearly with the pore volume (P) data at 28 d. The proposed model equation could be represented as S_c = 178-461P (correlation coefficient, R² = 0.96). Two parameters, the large capillary pore volume and the medium capillary pore volume, were evaluated using multiple regression analysis.     

添加醇对氨气在气液间传质性能的影响

采用旋流板式塔,考察了在吸收剂中添加正辛醇或异辛醇前后氨的气液传质性能.实验结果表明,在氨气体积分数为0.80%、气体流量为0.8 m3/min、吸收剂水力负荷为0～1.62 m3/(m2·h)的条件下,添加1.00 g/L的正辛醇或异辛醇,溶液的表面张力下降,旋流板式塔的理论板数升高;而在稀硫酸溶液中加入正辛醇或异辛醇后,却不利于氨气的传质.运用matlab软件对结果进行回归分析,建立了旋流板式塔的理论板数与其影响因素的回归方程.