Value of information analysis for adequate monitoring of carbon dioxide storage in geological reservoirs under uncertainty

As monitoring is essential for the proper management of geological storage of carbon dioxide (CO₂), the ability to value information from monitoring is indispensable to adequately design a monitoring program. It is necessary to judge whether the expected improvement in management is worth the cost of monitoring. The value of information (VOI) is closely related to the possible increase in expected utility gained by gathering the information, the concept of which can be applied to such judgement. Although VOI analysis has been extensively studied in the context of decision analysis, its application to the management of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) operations is rare. This paper introduces and discusses the methodology of VOI analyses in the context of monitoring CO₂ storage. A motivating problem with discrete probabilities is used to illustrate the concept of VOI. It is demonstrated that information is not always of value; for information to be worthwhile, monitoring under uncertainty must satisfy certain conditions. This concept is then extended to continuous probability distributions. The effects of prior uncertainty and information reliability on the VOI are examined. It is shown that an excessive improvement in information accuracy yields little value and that the optimal level of reliability can be inferred. VOI analyses provide quantitative insights into the value of information-gathering activities and therefore can be an objective means to adequately design and impartially justify a monitoring program.     

二氧化碳地质储存动态监测研究

将化石燃料燃烧产生的CO2进行储存,是当前减缓温室效应的有效途径之一.为了保证储存的有效性、安全性和持久性,必须开展科学、严格的监测,从而为整个储存工程的成功提供重要技术支撑.详细阐述了当前CO2地质储存采用的各项动态监测技术与方法.     

典型草原不同围封年限植被-土壤系统碳氮贮量的变化

以内蒙古太仆寺旗典型草原为研究对象,研究不同围封年限下的天然草地植物和土壤有机碳、全氮贮量的变化。结果表明：与自由放牧草地相比,重度退化草地采取生长季围封恢复措施后,群落植物和土壤环境在围封8、11、14、21、25年后均得到了明显的改善,地上植物和地下根系生物量及其碳氮贮量、土壤碳氮贮量明显增加,土壤容重降低。自由放牧地和围封8、11、14、21年植物-土壤系统碳贮量分别为7 357.93、7 988.27、8 413.18、12 878.82、8 934.66 g.m-2,氮贮量分别为427.78、494.28、575.49、707.35、615.09 g.m-2。草地围封至14年植物和土壤各项理化性质达到最大值,使得植物-土壤系统的碳氮贮量分别是自由放牧地的1.75和1.65倍,说明植被与土壤间达到了良性循环的状态,退化草地正向演替。随着围封年限的继续增加,其各项指标出现下降趋势。由此可知,季节性围封措施在一定时间内可使退化草地的土壤-植物系统的碳氮贮量增加,草地在一定程度上得到恢复,但适宜的恢复时间和合理利用问题有待进一步讨论。     

不同制图比例尺土壤数据库对旱地磷储量估算的影响

陆地生态系统中的磷元素在土壤肥力保持和生态环境保护方面起着重要的作用,但以往国家或区域尺度磷储量估算并没有考虑不同尺度土壤数据库所造成的差异。文章以江苏北部29个县（市）390多万hm2旱地为例,分析了17 000多个图斑和963个剖面组成、能详尽反映土壤属性空间异质性的1∶50 000数据库与目前国内同类研究使用最多的1∶1 000 000和1∶4 000 000土壤数据库对磷储量估算的影响。结果表明,不同制图尺度土壤数据库估算的全磷密度和储量差异很大,1∶50 000土壤数据库下的全磷密度和储量分别为1.34 kg.m-3和10.52 Tg,而1∶1 000 000和1∶4 000 0002个土壤数据库下磷密度和储量分别为0.79 kg.m-3和6.02 Tg、0.77 kg.m-3和6.26 Tg,远小于1∶50 000土壤数据库的全磷密度和储量。从不同土壤类型看,褐土受制图比例尺影响最大,1∶1 000 000和1∶4 000 000土壤数据库下与1∶50 000土壤数据库全磷密度和储量相对偏差分别在80%~90%和7%~130%之间,面积最大的潮土在1∶1 000 000和1∶4 000 000土壤数据库下与1∶50 000全磷密度和储量相对偏差也分别达到38%~39%和21%~23%。从各个县（市）来看,1∶1 000 000和1∶4 000 000土壤数据库下与1∶50 000土壤数据全磷密度和储量相对偏差大多超过40%。这也说明使用不同制图尺度土壤数据库将对旱地磷储量和磷密度的估算结果造成很大的影响。因此,在今后的国家和区域尺度全磷密度和储量估算研究中使用更详细的土壤数据库是非常必要的。     

集装箱岸桥安全操作中信息处理建模及分析

为研究集装箱岸桥(QC)装卸作业安全操作机理,利用信息论的理论和方法对岸桥信息处理与传递进行建模和计算。首先总结集装箱装卸作业流程的11个作业环节,以人脑为信道,利用通信系统模型建立岸桥司机装卸作业各环节的信息传输转换模型。基于甘特图思想,建立整个装卸作业流程的刺激-反应流程图;并计算作为刺激的各信息源事件的信息量I(xi),信源熵H(X)和信息传递量HT。根据描述性模型和定量计算结果,对各作业环节提出有针对性的事故预防措施。     

冷库建筑防火设计分析一以宝源丰禽业有限公司特别重大火灾事故为例

分析总结了“6·3”吉林省长春市德惠市吉林宝源丰禽业有限公司主厂房特别重大火灾爆炸事故发生、蔓延、扩大及造成重大人员伤亡的主要原因,吸取其在消防设计、施工、验收中存在的经验教训。针对目前现行消防技术标准并结合工作实际,从火灾自动报警系统的设置、火灾探测器的选型、自动喷水灭火系统喷头的设置、建筑隔墙的设计施工、提高（保温）隔热材料的防火性能及施工等方面探讨了完善优化冷库建筑消防安全防火设计的措施,为有关消防技术标准规范的修订提供了参考。     

EVALUATION OF THE SUSTAINABILITY OF WATER WITHDRAWALS IN THE UNITED STATES, 1995 TO 20251

To evaluate the long term sustainability of water withdrawals in the United States, a county level analysis of the availability of renewable water resources was conducted, and the magnitudes of human withdrawals from surface water and ground water sources and the stored water requirements during the warmest months of the year were evaluated. Estimates of growth in population and electricity generation were then used to estimate the change in withdrawals assuming that the rates of water use either remain at their current levels (the business as usual scenario) or that they exhibit improvements in efficiency at the same rate as observed over 1975 to 1995 (the improved efficiency scenario). The estimates show several areas, notably the Southwest and major metropolitan areas throughout the United States, as being likely to have significant new storage requirements with the business‐as‐usual scenario, under the condition of average water availability. These new requirements could be substantially eliminated under the improved efficiency scenario, thus indicating the importance of water use efficiency in meeting future requirements. The national assessment identified regions of potential water sustainability concern; these regions can be the subject of more targeted data collection and analyses in the future.     

钇覆盖Si@Al_（12）团簇的贮氢性能

利用密度泛函理论系统地研究了Y_mSi@Al_（12）（m=1—3）团簇及其贮氢性质.结果表明,在所研究的尺度范围内,钇原子未在Si@Al_（12）团簇上团聚;每个钇原子按18电子规则吸附氢分子,其中Y_3Si@Al_（12）团簇可以吸附16个完整氢分子,贮氢质量分数为5.0%,平均吸附能处于0.324—0.527 eV之间,较为理想的吸附能说明在室温条件下吸氢和脱氢是可行的.     

Changes in Extractable Metal Concentrations During Storage of Surface Water Samples Containing Sediments1

ABSTRACT: Changes in metal concentrations during storage of acidified water samples were studied. Water samples with high concentrations of suspended sediment were collected from the Fraser River, British Columbia. These samples were analyzed for “extractable” metals, which are defined to be the dissolved metals plus those metals extracted from suspended sediment by dilute mineral acid. Concentrations of extractable Cu, Fe, Pb, Zn, Ni, Co, Mn, and Cd were determined over time. Metal concentrations in these water samples were not stable and showed significant increases throughout the storage period. These results suggest that the extractable metal technique is inappropriate for the analysis of water samples containing suspended sediment.