基于ISM的道路交通安全影响因素研究

为提高交通安全管理水平,促进交通的可持续发展。基于解释结构模型原理,综合考虑车、路和环境因素,构建了影响道路交通安全的影响因素结构模型。该模型不但能够弥补分析结构要素之间内在影响机制的不足,而且对于研究道路交通安全结构要素之间的层次性和复杂性有天然的优势。数据来源于由13位专家构成的ISM小组,其中7位为来自高校从事交通安全研究的教授,6位为来自北京市、上海市、广州市、武汉市等交通运输委员会的高层管理者,保证了数据的科学性和可靠性。采用解释结构图分析车、路和环境各影响因素之间的关系,结果表明,众多因素会对道路交通安全产生影响,车辆技术条件、定期检验合格率、车辆救援设备的完备状况、安全设施是制约道路交通安全的直接影响因素,道路限速、道路负荷度、大客(或货车)比例、交通量、交通监控是影响道路交通安全的间接因素,车辆超限(超载)状况、车流密度、道路路面类型、道路设施完备性、天气状况、单向车道数和地形特征是影响道路交通安全的最根本因素。为提高道路交通安全管理水平,首先,应进一步完善《道路交通安全法实施条例》,加强对车辆定期检验的监督;其次,健全道路信息公示制度,提升交通监控水平,引入相关路段道路限速、负荷度、交通量动态信息显示及预警机制;最后,加强车辆超限(超载)及车流密度的监控,健全道路设施的配套制度。     

Sonographically determined anomalies and outcome in 170 chromosomally abnormal fetuses

Structural pathology and outcome were studied in 170 chromosomally abnormal fetuses. Numerical chromosomal abnormalities were established in 158 (93 per cent) cases, of which 110 (71 per cent) represented trisomies, 30 (18 per cent) Turner syndrome, and 18 (11 per cent) triploidy. Structural chromosomal abnormalities were diagnosed in 12 (7 per cent) cases. Gestational age at referral was significantly shorter for pregnancies with Turner syndrome than for the other chromosomal abnormalities. Referral before 20 weeks of gestation was mainly based on fetal structural pathology alone (92 per cent); after 20 weeks, patients were referred because of structural pathology combined with small for gestational age, oligohydramnios, or polyhydramnios. Referral as a result of suspected multiple organ pathology occurred in 73.5 per cent of pregnancies. An abnormal amniotic fluid volume was present in 59/170 (34.5 per cent) chromosomally affected pregnancies, i.e., oligohydramnios in 31 and polyhydramnios in 28 cases. Birth weight was below the tenth percentile in over half of the chromosomally abnormal fetuses, except for Turnersyndrome. Fetal outcome was poor, with a survival rate at 1 month of 30 per cent for trisomies which was mainly determined by trisomy 21 (14/18=77.5 per cent).     

武夷—云开构造带北段构造变形及演化

本文讨论了中国东部重要构造带,武夷——云开构造带北段的构造变形,变质作用,古压力(静压力和差异应力),古温度及它们的演化。从变形构造动力学观点入手,划分了不同构造旋回的变形变质作用,测试了变质变形的压力,温度和差异应力,进而分析了变形变质特征反地质构造环境,讨论了本区中生代以来的三期推覆构造及形成机理。     

桐柏大别山链南缘构造变形及推覆构造

本文从桐柏—大别山链南缘及其前陆地区的构造变形研究入手,划分出区内两期两种型式推覆构造,即印支—燕山早期对冲式推覆构造和喜山期背冲式推覆构造。并综合分析了它们的结构,推覆方向和规模等,讨论了它的形成演化机制和油气勘探意义。     

东濮断陷湖盆陡坡带构造演化史恢复研究

陡坡带构造演化史研究对断陷湖盆具有重要意义,平衡剖面技术在面积(体积)守恒的基础上为恢复构造演化史提供了一种科学合理的技术方法。通过对东濮凹陷兰聊陡坡带进行平衡剖面法构造演化史恢复,再现了兰聊断层的活动规律及其对东濮断陷湖盆发展演化的控制作用,明确了东濮凹陷早第三纪层序地层发育特征、坡折带类型及其对砂砾岩扇体的控制作用,指出了隐蔽油气藏发育的有利层段和分布的有利地区。     

Static modeling of dynamic recreation behavior: Implications for prediction and welfare estimation

This paper examines the consequences of using a static model of recreation trip-taking behavior when the underlying decision problem is dynamic. Specifically we examine the implications for trip forecasting and welfare estimation using a panel dataset of Lake Michigan salmon anglers for the 1996 and 1997 fishing seasons. We derive and estimate both a structural dynamic model using Bellman's equation, and a reduced-form static model with trip probability expressions mimicking those of the dynamic model. We illustrate an inherent identification problem in the reduced-form model that creates biased welfare estimates, and we discuss the general implications of this for the interpretation of preference parameters in static models. We then use both models to simulate trip taking behavior and show that although their in-sample trip forecasts are similar, their welfare estimates and out-of-sample forecasts are quite different.     

Structural equation modelling of lower back pain due to whole-body vibration exposure in the construction industry

Whole-body vibration (WBV) exposure is a health hazard among workers, causing lower back pain (LBP) in the construction industry. This study examines key factors affecting LBP due to WBV exposure using exploratory factor analysis and structural equation modelling. The results confirm five key factors (equipment, job related, organizational, personal, social context) with their 17 associated items. The organizational factor is found the most important, as it influences the other four factors. The results also show that appropriate seat type, specific training programme, job rotation, workers’ satisfaction and workers’ physical condition are crucial in reducing LBP due to WBV exposure. Moreover, provision of new machines without proper training and good working condition might not help reduce LBP due to WBV exposure. The results help the construction companies to better understand key factors affecting LBP due to WBV exposure, and to plan for a better health improvement programme.     

基于SEM的医院安全脆弱性研究

为准确衡量医院的安全水平,分析医院安全脆弱性影响因素及其关系,首先提炼出基于4个指标,26个因子的医院安全脆弱性概念模型;然后选取10家三甲医院的200名中高层管理者发放问卷,采用SPSS21.0软件对模型进行影响因子验证和修正;最后运用SEM方法,得到指标对医院安全脆弱性的影响路径系数。研究结果表明:人员安全类对医院安全脆弱性影响最大;其次是技术安全类、自然灾害类的脆弱性;另外,4大类脆弱性因素具有直接或间接的影响;医院管理者可以通过加强人员安全培训和管理,提升技术安全措施,预防自然灾害,减少医院安全事故的发生。     

安全诚信管理对安全行为的影响研究—以煤矿企业为例

为了分析煤矿安全诚信管理与安全行为的关系,建立煤矿安全诚信管理与安全行为的结构方程模型,利用问卷调查的方法在2个煤矿开展研究。研究结论表明:安全诚信文化对员工行为态度和安全意识具有正向影响;管理制度建设对员工行为态度和员工安全意识具有正向影响;教育与培训对员工行为态度和员工安全意识具有正向影响;员工安全意识对安全行为具有正向影响;煤矿安全诚信管理通过影响行为态度、安全意识和主观规范作用于安全行为。     

民用机场消防员应急保障能力研究

为提高民用机场消防员应急保障能力,提升机场运行保障水平,需明确机场消防员应急保障能力的影响因素。根据专家访谈及文献查阅,筛选出了影响民用机场消防员应急保障能力的18个要素。通过问卷调查收集数据,利用SPSS 22. 0对数据进行信度分析、效度分析及因子分析,并构建假设模型。利用AMOS 24. 0软件对假设模型进行验证并确定各影响因素权重。结果表明,对民用机场消防员应急保障能力影响最大的是基础素质,然后依次是专业技能、专业知识、处境意识。最后在B机场选取两组消防员进行实测,试验组消防员应急演练的综合评价成绩为3. 792,对照组的成绩为3. 413。此外试验组消防员各项能力的评价水平均高于对照组,这表明模型在提升机场消防员的应急保障能力方面可发挥重要作用。