Ambiguity,reasoned determination,and climate-change policy

This paper examines climate-change benefit-cost analysis in the presence of scientific uncertainty in the form of ambiguity. The specific issue addressed is the robustness of benefit-cost analyses of climate-change policy alternatives to relaxation of Savage's original axioms. Two alternatives to subjective expected utility (SEU) are considered: maximin expected utility (MEU) and incomplete expected utility (IEU). Among other results, it is demonstrated that polar opposite recommendations can emerge in an ambiguous decision setting even if all agree on Society's rate of time preference, Society's risk attitudes, the degree of ambiguity faced, and the scientific primitives. We show that, for a simple numerical simulation of our model, an MEU decision maker favors policies which immediately tackle climate change while an IEU decision prefers “business as usual”.“Each agency shall assess the costs and benefits of the intended regulation, and recognizing that some costs and benefits are difficult to quantify, propose or adopt a regulation only upon a reasoned determination that the benefits of the intended regulation justify its cost.” Executive Order 12866 of the US President.     

Why the IPCC should evolve in response to the UNFCCC bottom-up strategy adopted in Paris? An opinion from the French Association for Disaster Risk Reduction

The levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere keep increasing every year, and despite the adoption of the Paris agreement, one cannot expect any significant dip in the trend in the near future. We may therefore legitimately question the efficiency of the current governance system, notably concerning the interplay between science and policy. The strategy adopted by the UNFCCC in Paris contrasts with the strategy adopted in Kyoto, as it endorses a dynamic that is more bottom-up. Its success will depend greatly on the ability of the actors to mobilise on climate issues and to find ways to work together. Scientific expertise has a key role to play to this respect. This paper is a reflection led by the French Association for Disaster Risk Reduction on how the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change could evolve in order to usefully accompany that strategy. Introducing more reflexivity in the assessment process and widening aspects of the expertise to a more diverse and transdisciplinary range of actors could improve the treatment of uncertainties, multi-scale interactions and the appropriation of expertise, as well as the integration of adaptation and mitigation policies. In practical terms, this could involve more working groups, which could become more focused, drawing up shorter but more frequent reports, and taking account of the “grey” expert literature. The implementation of such an approach merits further investigation, because these improvements could help address the governance challenges in climate change.     

微波加热对活性炭表面基团及其对SO2吸附性能的影响

采用了微波加热技术,通过在不同微波功率和辐射时间条件下对不同粒径活性炭进行改性,研究了改性前后活性炭的表面化学基团、元素组成的变化,以及对SO2吸附性能的影响.结果表明,经过微波改性后活性炭的SO2吸附性能大为提高,微波功率是影响改性活性炭脱硫性能的主要因素.活性炭经微波热处理后,酸性基团发生分解,表面含氧量减少,碱性特征增强,是吸附性能增加的主要原因之一.     

铝件表面处理废水治理所得化学污泥的再生利用研究

对混凝法处理铝件表面处理废水治理所得化学污泥再生利用进行了研究,得到了适宜的操作条件.结果表明,用浓硫酸溶解污泥的最佳用量为0.14～0.16 mL/g湿污泥,湿污泥的溶解率可达90%,铝的溶出率也可达95%以上.把污泥的溶解液作混凝剂回用于印染废水的混凝处理也取得了良好的效果,其COD去除率≥80%,脱色率≥90%.实现了资源的二次利用,改善了作业环境,获得了较好的经济效益和社会效益.     

高气泡表面积通量浮选柱气浮除藻的研究

湖泊、水库等水源的富营养化,使藻类去除成为饮用水生产的重要任务.本研究采用高气泡表面积通量浮选柱气浮除藻,考察了混凝剂、气泡表面积通量和浮选柱高度等因素的影响.试验表明,高气泡表面积通量浮选柱气浮可高效地去除绿藻、硅藻和蓝藻,叶绿素a和藻类去除率达95%以上,比传统浮选柱气浮和沉降作业有较大幅度提高.与普通气浮柱比较,高气泡表面积通量浮选柱增加了气泡与藻的碰撞几率,防止因大表观充气速率造成的紊流和扰动,使气泡/藻结合体有相对静态的浮升环境,避免了气泡/藻结合体在浮升过程中的脱落,实现对藻类的迅速捕集和转移.     

沙柳活性炭纤维的制备与表征

以（NH4）2HPO4活化沙柳纤维制备活性炭纤维,L16（45）正交实验优化制备工艺条件,重点研究了活化温度对活性炭纤维结构的影响。同时应用扫描电镜（SEM）对其表面形貌进行表征,通过N2吸附-脱附测定其孔结构。结果表明,随着活化温度的升高,活性炭得率逐渐减小,碘吸附值先增大后减小,在浸渍比2.5：1、预氧化温度200℃、预氧化时间90 min、活化温度为800℃、活化时间60 min的条件下,可以制备出比表面积为1 304 m2·g-1、总孔容为1.004 cm3·g-1、得率为31.6%、碘吸附值为1 321 mg·g-1的纤维状活性炭。     

TiO2、BiVO4、Cu2O光催化降解低浓度甲醛

比较研究了3种（TiO2,BiVO4,Cu2O）光催化剂对低浓度甲醛的降解过程,拟通过结构分析（晶粒尺寸、比表面积、禁带宽度）和实验评价其性能优劣,优选出光催化性能较好的材料。通过结构分析和降解甲醛实验发现,甲醛初始浓度较低时,BiVO4降解率优于其他,随甲醛浓度增加,催化剂降解率均呈上升趋势,TiO2-1（T-1）、TiO2-2（T-2）降解率增加显著。随环境湿度增大,降解率先上升后下降,BiVO4-1（B-1）、BiVO4-2（B-2）降解率下降的较为缓慢。同一物质当晶粒尺寸越小比表面积越大,其降解率越好。T-2比B-1有更好的稳定性。分析认为在较低甲醛浓度时,决定光催化降解率的主要因素是催化剂的表面反应速率。随着甲醛初始浓度的增加,吸附脱附成为主要限制步骤。随环境湿度增加,甲醛降解率先上升后下降,具有较小比表面积的BiVO4降解甲醛效率下降不显著。连续的工作产生甲醛分解副产物,不易堵塞具有大比表面积的T-2的活性位点,所以T-2有更好的稳定性。     

Surface Consolidation of Pentelic Marble: Criteria for the selection of methods and materials - The Acropolis case (6 pp)

Goal and Scope In order to realize surface consolidation of Pentelic marble on the Acropolis monuments, we have collected the criteria that have to be fulfilled by the methods and materials without side effects on the marbles (and other stones). When the existing methods and materials did not satisfy the requirements (criteria), we invented new ones.Methods The criteria were collected from the literature, by thermodynamic and kinetic viewpoints, by laboratory experiments and in situ observations on monuments, both in Greece and in several countries in which the various methods and materials were applied. Concerning our method of ‘Inversion of sulfation’, performed by spraying a K2CO3 solution, its concentration and its temperature were controlled in order to have a total inversion (certified by liquid crystals) of gypsum back to CaCO3. For the new material of ours, ‘Reinforced Lime’, in order to eliminate the disadvantages of plain lime (low carbonation rate, low mechanical properties of CaCO3 formed, lack of carbonation in the bulk of lime), measurements of the rate of carbonation were performed in plain lime and in lime with a different CaCO3 concentration beforehand as well as in a different CO2 environments, using DTG and XRD to measure the rate of carbonation. The detachment (kg/cm2) of marble specimens stuck by lime in each case was also measured. A microscope was also used to measure the dimensions of the grain in each case as well as ammonium citrate and thymolphthalein to certify the depth of carbonation in each case. Part of the work was communicated in an international congress.Results A table with the criteria of the selection of the methods and materials for the consolidation of Pentelic marble surfaces (and other stones) was established. None of the employed methods and materials fulfilled the criteria. Only the ‘Inversion of gypsum ‘ and the ‘Reinforced Lime’ were adopted and applied to the Acropolis monuments and to other monuments in Greece and in several other countries.Recommendation and Outlook All criteria must be used for the selection of methods and materials for the consolidation of the monument surfaces. This is why we have already studied with the same procedures, methods and materials for restoration, surface cleaning and protection.     

Misoperation monitoring and early warning during startup and shutdown of petrochemical units

Most petrochemical units run under extreme conditions, such as high temperatures, pressures, and speeds. Consequently, the equipment operators may commit errors because the startup and shutdown processes usually involve complicated operation steps; moreover, the operators may lack experience in handling abnormal situations. Misoperation can lead to accidents, including fires and explosions. Thus, risk analysis for process operations and the development of preventive measures have become an effective means of avoiding misoperation-related accidents. However, it is challenging to ensure the comprehensiveness of risk-analysis results. In this paper, we present a method for misoperation monitoring and early warning in the startup and shutdown processes of petrochemical units. The mechanisms of misoperation occurrence are summarized based on investigations of serious accidents in the recent past. Knowledge regarding the mechanisms of misoperation is crucial for the risk analysis of petrochemical units. The potential risk information, such as causes, adverse consequences, key monitoring parameters, and prevention control solutions, should be acquired and be employed to construct an early-warning knowledge database. Furthermore, misoperation judgment rules need to be formulated to identify misoperations. The data obtained from the monitoring module, misoperation judgment rules, and analysis results can aid in developing schemes to avoid possible abnormal situations. This paper reports a misoperation monitoring and early-warning system for a hydrogenation unit. As demonstrated, conducting risk analysis to determine the potential operational risks and formulating misoperation judgment rules to analyze the process data are essential for enabling early warning. The application of this method will contribute to operational guidance, economic loss reduction, and accident avoidance.     

金沙江流域水土流失现状与河道泥沙分析

对金沙江流域水土流失、河道泥沙及主要影响因素系统作了分析,认为地质、地貌及气候因子是影响水土流失的主要因素,人为活动加剧水土流失的发生发展。河道泥沙主要来自金沙江下游,特别是下游干流河谷区间,流域的地面侵蚀与河道泥沙的空间关系不密切,影响输沙量的主要因素为年径流量和清水区年径流量,以及滑坡、泥石流等重力侵蚀,尽管水土流失治理对于流域的河道泥沙减沙效应显著,但短期内对流域干支流输沙量影响甚微。今后一段时间内金沙江流域河道泥沙不会有显著的变化