全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃情景下长江中下游地区极端降水的变化特征

基于长江中下游地区1961~2100年区域气候模式COSMO-CLM(CCLM)模拟与1961~2005年气象站观测的逐日降水数据,通过统计计算年降水量、强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率4个极端降水指数,研究全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃情景下,长江中下游地区极端降水的时空变化特征。结果表明:(1)全球升温1.5℃情景下,年降水量相对于1986~2005年减少5%,强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率分别增加7%、33%和4%;概率密度曲线表明,年降水量均值下降,强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率均值上升,极端降水方差增大;年降水量、强降水量和暴雨日数在空间上表现为南部增加北部减少,极端降水贡献率则相反。(2)全球升温2.0℃情景下,年降水量下降3%,强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率分别上升15%、46%和15%;年降水量均值稍有减少且方差稍有上升,强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率均值和方差明显增加;年降水量减少区域位于长江主干以北,强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率表现为绝大部分地区增加的空间变化特征。(3)全球升温由1.5℃至2.0℃时,年降水量、强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率分别增加3%、7%、10%和11%;随升温幅度的增加极端降水均值和方差上升;极端降水呈增加态势的范围扩大。因此,努力将升温控制在1.5℃对降低极端降水的影响具有重要意义。     

Taming the Climate? Corpus analysis of politicians’ speech on climate change

The politics of climate change is much discussed, but there has been little investigation into how politicians themselves understand or articulate the issue. Corpus analysis, a method developed within linguistics, is used to investigate how UK politicians talk about climate change, using the example of the 2008 Climate Change Bill. Corpus techniques, including keyword analysis, collocation and semantic tagging, are used, alongside critical reading of the text. The analysis shows that politicians frame climate change as an economic and technical issue, and neglect discussion of the human and social dimensions. They are selective in their use of scientific evidence, with little mention of abrupt or irreversible change. In doing so, they attempt to ‘tame’ climate change, rather than confronting difficult realities. While this strategy has the benefit of political acceptability, it does not allow for discussion of the full political and social implications of climate change, and precludes more radical responses.     

When is increasing consumption of common property optimal? Sorting,congestion and entry in the commons

First-best pricing or assignment of property rights for rival and non-excludable goods is often infeasible. In a setting where the social planner cannot limit total use, we show that common-property resources can be over or under-consumed. This depends on whether the external benefits of reallocating users to less congested resources outweigh the additional costs imposed by new entrants. Importantly, we show that it may be optimal to encourage consumption of some common property resources. Our results have important implications for settings ranging from fisheries and forestry to recreational demand and transportation.     

中国与美国对外直接投资区位选择的比较研究

基于邓宁的国际生产折衷理论,对比了中美两国投资规模、空间分布和发展阶段,利用灰色关联分析法比较了影响两国投资区位的因子.结果表明,影响美国对外投资的主要因子是人均GNP、CH和CO2的排放量,影响中国的主要因子是直接投资净流入量、航空运输量和CPI;美国对外直接投资属于市场导向型,而中国尚处于转型期,为对外投资第三阶段.     

浅谈高校办公室工作的基本规律与工作技巧

从明晰高校办公室工作职责、高校办公室主任应具备的能力、创新高校办公室管理模式三个方面,阐述了高校办公室工作的基本规律。通过在高校办公室多年的工作积累,总结出了高校办公室主任八方面的工作技巧。     

Reconnecting nature,farming and society: environmental cooperatives in the Netherlands as institutional arrangements for creating coherence

An important implication of agricultural modernization has been the break-down of interlinkages between farming, ecology and society. Historically, farming systems evolved from the specific responses of farming communities to local ecological conditions. The totality of regionalized farming systems arising out of this co-production moulded the countryside into an ‘archipelago’ of differentiated ruralities. During the period of agricultural modernization, the nature of co-production changed thoroughly. The natural elements in co-production were increasingly artificialized or replaced by industrial artefacts. This paper analyses the emergence of environmental cooperatives in the Netherlands as a movement towards a renewed embedding of farming in its local environment. Environmental cooperatives are local farmers associations that promote activities related to sustainable agriculture and rural development and claim to be actively involved in effectuating rural policies in their locale. Since the foundation of the first cooperative in 1992, numbers have rapidly grown to over 100. This paper examines the genesis and practices of environmental cooperatives and assesses their socio-economic and ecological impact. The importance lies most of all, so the authors contend, in that they represent valuable ‘field laboratories’ for building stimulating and supportive institutional contexts for remodelling Dutch farming along the lines of environmental and economic sustainability. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modeling Nutrient Transports and Exchanges of Nutrients Between Shallow Regions and the Open Baltic Sea in Present and Future Climate

We quantified horizontal transport patterns and the net exchange of nutrients between shallow regions and the open sea in the Baltic proper. A coupled biogeochemical-physical circulation model was used for transient simulations 1961-2100. The model was driven by regional downscaling of the IPCC climate change scenario A1B from two global General Circulation Models in combination with two nutrient load scenarios. Modeled nutrient transports followed mainly the large-scale internal water circulation and showed only small circulation changes in the future projections. The internal nutrient cycling and exchanges between shallow and deeper waters became intensified, and the internal removal of phosphorus became weaker in the warmer future climate. These effects counteracted the impact from nutrient load reductions according to the Baltic Sea Action Plan. The net effect of climate change and nutrient reductions was an increased net import of dissolved inorganic phosphorus to shallow areas in the Baltic proper.     

A Socio-Ecological Assessment Aiming at Improved Forest Resource Management and Sustainable Ecotourism Development in the Mangroves of Tanbi Wetland National Park, The Gambia, West Africa

Although mangroves dominated by Avicennia germinans and Rhizophora mangle are extending over 6000 ha in the Tanbi Wetland National Park (TWNP) (The Gambia), their importance for local populations (both peri-urban and urban) is not well documented. For the first time, this study evaluates the different mangrove resources in and around Banjul (i.e., timber, non-timber, edible, and ethnomedicinal products) and their utilization patterns, including the possibility of ecotourism development. The questionnaire-based results have indicated that more than 80% of peri-urban population rely on mangroves for timber and non-timber products and consider them as very important for their livelihoods. However, at the same time, urban households demonstrate limited knowledge on mangrove species and their ecological/economic benefits. Among others, fishing (including the oyster—Crassostrea cf. gasar collection) and tourism are the major income-generating activities found in the TWNP. The age-old practices of agriculture in some parts of the TWNP are due to scarcity of land available for agriculture, increased family size, and alternative sources of income. The recent focus on ecotourism (i.e., boardwalk construction inside the mangroves near Banjul city) received a positive response from the local stakeholders (i.e., users, government, and non-government organizations), with their appropriate roles in sharing the revenue, rights, and responsibilities of this project. Though the guidelines for conservation and management of the TWNP seem to be compatible, the harmony between local people and sustainable resource utilization should be ascertained.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-012-0248-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Desorption of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons from field-contaminated soil to a two-dimensional hydrophobic surface before and after bioremediation

This study investigated environmental distributions and production mechanisms of chlorinated polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (Cl-PAHs) in the sediments from some tidal flats located in Asia. Cl-PAHs were found in sediments taken from Arao tidal flat, Kikuchigawa River and Shirakawa River. The range of ∑Cl-PAHs was from 25.5 to 483 pg g⁻¹ for Kikuchigawa River and Arao tidal flat, respectively.Concentrations of PAHs and Cl-PAHs showed no significant correlations (r = 0.134). This result suggests that the origins of these compounds differ. In the identified Cl-PAH isomers, the most abundant Cl-PAH isomer was 9,10-dichloroanthracene (9,10-di-Cl-ANT) in the three sites. In general, concentrations of Cl-ANTs in the coastal environment are about 3-5 orders of magnitude lower than those of anthracene (ANT). However, concentration ratios between Cl-ANTs and ANT (Cl-ANTs/ANT) in the sediments ranged from 4.1% to 24.6%. This result indicated that Cl-PAHs were not generated under industrial processes but the high concentration ratios have resulted from the contribution of photochemical production of Cl-ANTs in the sediments because ANT is known to have high photochemical reactivity.For examining this phenomenon, ANT adsorbed onto glass beads was irradiated with UV under the mimicked field conditions of tidal flats. As a result, it was noticed that, while chlorinated derivatives were negligible in a light-controlled group, production of 2-Cl-ANT, 9-Cl-ANT and 9,10-diCl-ANT on the irradiated surface were found in this study. These results suggest that photochemical reaction of PAHs can be a potential source of the occurrence of Cl-PAHs in the coastal environment.     

Subcellular distribution and toxicity of cadmium in Potamogeton crispus L

The submerged macrophyte Potamogeton crispus L. was subjected to varying doses of cadmium (0, 20, 40, 60 and 80 μM) for 7 d, and the plants were analyzed for subcellular distribution of Cd, accumulation of mineral nutrients, photosynthesis, oxidative stress, protein content, and ultrastructural distribution of calcium (Ca). Leaf fractionation by differential centrifugation indicated that 48-69% of Cd was accumulated in the cell wall. At all doses of Cd, the levels of Ca and B rose and the level of Mn fell; the levels of Fe, Mg, Zn, Cu, Mo, and P rose initially only to decline later. Exposure to Cd caused oxidative stress as evident by increased content of malondialdehyde and decreased contents of chlorophyll and protein. Photosynthetic efficiency, as indicated by the quenching of chlorophyll a fluorescence (Fv/Fm, Fo and Fm), decreased significantly, the extent of decrease being directly proportional to the concentration of Cd. Increased amounts of precipitates of calcium were noticed in the treated plants, located either outside the cell membrane or in chloroplasts, mitochondria, the nucleus, and the cytoplasm whereas control plants showed small deposits of the precipitates around surface of the vacuole membrane and in the intercellular space but rarely in the cytoplasm. Photosynthetic efficiency and oxidative stress could be used as indicators of physiological end-points in determining the extent of Cd phytotoxicity.