海口湾人工填海前后冲淤演变数值模拟

为了解近年南海明珠项目、葫芦岛、秀英港扩建工程等人工填海工程对海口湾冲淤变化的影响,基于FVCOM海洋数值模型,对研究区人工填海前后潮流场、波浪场及冲淤变化进行了数值模拟。人工填海后,综合各条件下的冲淤情况,海口湾受潮流和波浪共同作用大部分区域处于淤积状态,年淤积量预测值为0.1～1.0 m;白沙角等局部区域处于侵蚀状态,年冲刷量预测值为0.1～0.3 m;受海口湾人工填海工程的影响,秀英港航道的水动力条件减弱,对通航条件改善有利,需加强航道的水深监测和定时的清淤工作;在南海明珠人工岛南侧波影区泥沙堆积会形成向海的舌状的突出体,其两侧海岸形成侵蚀后退带,需人工补沙等措施以保证岸线稳定。     

国家自主贡献机制下的减排力度调控机制设计

现有国家自主贡献机制存在约束力弱、减排力度小的问题,对此,本文在论证该机制内在缺陷的基础上,基于信息不对称理论的委托代理模型设计了减排力度调控机制。该减排力度调控机制既能使各国的自主贡献额具有强约束力,又能灵活调控各国的减排力度,并发掘各国的减排潜力。该减排力度调控机制有助于弥补现有国家自主贡献机制的缺陷,促进国际社会的减排。     

基于超效率DEA模型的三峡库区生态效率评价及空间演化格局分析

本文基于2010—2017年的统计数据,首先采用超效率DEA模型对三峡库区26个区县的生态效率进行测算,然后运用空间自相关分析方法对三峡库区生态效率的演化格局进行了实证分析,探索三峡库区生态效率的时空动态演变特征。研究表明:2010—2017年三峡库区生态效率平均水平处于0.5601～1.1920,整体呈现波动性变化趋势,生态效率在一定程度上有所改善,但是整体水平仍然较低;从区域层面看,各个区县间生态效率水平不平衡,空间分布上呈现"西高东低"的非均衡性特征。局部空间自相关分析表明,三峡库区2010—2017年集聚性呈逐渐减弱态势,空间异质性逐渐增加,整体的生态效率差异变大。最后依据实证研究分析结果,本文对如何提升三峡库区生态效率提出了相应的政策建议。     

黄河流域近十五年生态系统服务价值变化特征及影响因素研究

黄河流域生态系统服务变化的定量评估有利于考核流域生态综合治理效果。本研究构建了基于能值的生态系统服务价值核算方法体系,核算了黄河流域2000—2015年省级及地市级尺度生态系统服务价值变化及导致变化的原因。结果表明:(1)近15年,黄河流域生态状况有明显好转,除河南和山东外,增幅主要集中在黄河流域的中上游(7%～27%),增幅最大的为甘肃;(2)黄河流域的117个地级市(地区、自治州、盟)中,有77个地级市(地区、自治州、盟)生态系统服务价值有不同增幅(0.46%～210%);(3)黄河流域"源""过程""汇"区位不同保护重点不同,要根据其所提供生态服务的能力及改善情况动态制定分区分类保护策略;(4)近15年的林地面积增加对所提供的服务提升效果明显,湿地(湖泊、沼泽地)的减少变成黄河流域上、中、下游省份服务下降的最大驱动因素。本研究能够为黄河流域生态治理及城市绿色发展提供基础性依据。     

Model‐Based Nitrogen and Phosphorus (Nutrient) Criteria for Large Temperate Rivers: 2. Criteria Derivation

Nitrogen and phosphorus criteria were developed for 233 km of the Yellowstone River, one of the first cases where a mechanistic model has been used to derive large river numeric nutrient criteria. A water quality model and a companion model which simulates lateral algal biomass across transects were used to simulate effects of increasing nutrients on five variables (dissolved oxygen, total organic carbon, total dissolved gas, pH, and benthic algal biomass in depths ≤1 m). Incremental increases in nutrients were evaluated relative to their impact on predefined thresholds for each variable; the first variable to exceed a threshold set the nutrient criteria. Simulations were made at a low flow, the 14Q5 (lowest average 14 consecutive day flow, July‐September, recurring one in five years), which was derived using benthic algae growth curves and EPA guidance on excursion frequency. An extant climate dataset with an annual recurrence was used, and tributary water quality and flows were coincident with the river's 10 lowest flow years. The river had different sensitivities to nutrients longitudinally, pH being the most sensitive variable in the upstream reach and algal biomass in the lower. Model‐based criteria for the Yellowstone River are as follows: between the Bighorn and Powder river confluences, 55 μg TP/l and 655 μg TN/l; from the Powder River confluence to Montana state line, 95 μg TP/l and 815 μg TN/l. Pros and cons of using steady‐state models to derive river nutrient criteria are discussed.     

关于焦化行业CO2排放核算方法的探讨

本文分析了适用于焦化行业通用CO₂排放核算方法,在此基础上结合我国焦化行业工艺和原料的特征,采用排放因子法和物料衡算法等两种方法对10家典型焦化企业CO₂排放进行核算。结果表明:物料衡算法能很好地反映不同类型焦化企业的排放特征;排放因子法对我国独立焦化企业存在碳排放量系统性高估的可能。为此,建议我国焦化企业可借鉴德国焦化企业的碳核算经验,采用碳平衡法对不同类型的焦化企业(单元)的碳排放量进行核算,并完善相关的统计和监测技术。     

甘肃省第三产业对经济增长贡献的实证研究

第三产业的加快发展是生产力提高和社会进步的必然结果。大力发展第三产业有利于提高工农业生产的社会化和专业化水平,有利于优化生产结构,促进市场充分发育,缓解就业压力,从而促进整个经济持续、快速和健康发展。利用1991-2009年数据,以向量自回归模型为基础,采用单位根检验、协整分析和格兰杰因果检验等方法对甘肃省第三产业与经济增长之间的关系进行了实证研究。结果表明,1991-2009年甘肃省第三产业总值对GDP的长期弹性为0．35035,第三产业对经济增长具有积极的促进作用。     

欧美等发达国家水环境监测方法体系

分别简述了美国、欧盟和日本等发达国家或组织水环境监测方法体系发展历程,分析了其各自水环境监测方法体系特点。对中国水环境监测方法体系的制定与实施提出了建议。     

浅谈高校办公室工作的基本规律与工作技巧

从明晰高校办公室工作职责、高校办公室主任应具备的能力、创新高校办公室管理模式三个方面,阐述了高校办公室工作的基本规律。通过在高校办公室多年的工作积累,总结出了高校办公室主任八方面的工作技巧。     

An Objective Multiattribute Analysis Approach for Allocation of Scarce Irrigation Water Resources1

Zardari, Noor ul Hassan, Ian Cordery, and Ashish Sharma, 2010. An Objective Multiattribute Analysis Approach for Allocation of Scarce Irrigation Water Resources. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(2):412-428. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2009.00410.x Abstract: In this study, end user (farmer) and decision maker (water allocator) opinions were surveyed and a conjoint analysis (CA) based method was applied to the quantitative and qualitative data to assess the utility associated with each attribute that plays a role in forming the final thinking of the water users. The application of CA for estimating the utility for each attribute level is a novel approach, which helps provide a formal, objective basis for assigning relative scales for each attribute interval within a multiattribute decision-making model. The utilities (part-worths) obtained from the CA have a cardinal scale and were found to be comparable within and across the attributes. A farmers’ survey on five water allocation attributes was completed from 62 farmers and their opinions on the relative importance of attributes were elicited for a subarea of the Indus River Basin. The CA method was then applied to the survey data and the utilities for each attribute level were determined. This allowed, for instance, decisions to be made, which take account of the perceived value of the water and of the availability of local labor to work on the farm. Finally, these interval scales were used within the specification of the ELECTRE multiattribute decision-making method to provide a complete and objective ranking of nine irrigation districts so that the best decisions on water allocation could be made.