人群的自然和社会属性分类下PM2.5对心血管疾病的影响

为了研究人群在自然属性和社会属性分类下的效应修饰作用,利用2005~2011年北京市大气PM_2.5日均浓度、气象要素及循环系统疾病每日死亡人数数据,根据不同年龄、性别及学历将人群分组,采用时间序列的半参数广义相加模型（GAM）,定量评价大气PM_2.5对居民循环系统疾病死亡人数的影响.单污染物模型和多污染物模型结果表明,PM_2.5为影响循环系统疾病每日死亡人数的主要大气污染物.北京市空气中PM_2.5的浓度每增加10μg/m³,循环系统疾病总死亡人数增加0.50%（95% CI：0.36,0.63）.不同人群的易感程度不同,各人群死亡人数的增加范围为0.23~0.71%,女性、60~74岁人群、文盲人群的健康风险相对较高.在文盲人群中,老年（60+）女性占比为66.2%,为了分离社会属性人群分类中可能存在的自然属性因素干扰,本文去除其中老年、女性这两个混杂因素的影响,文盲人群健康风险仍然大于较高学历的人群.年龄和性别因素叠加在学历因素上,可能加大低学历人群的健康风险,对于这部分叠加了自然因素和社会因素双重敏感性的人群应给与重点关注.     

基于动态时间弯曲算法的核电厂瞬态识别方法研究

目的对核电厂运行瞬态识别进行有效识别。方法基于动态时间弯曲算法,计算运行瞬态中温度、压力和流速数据与设计瞬态中对应数据之间的相似程度,通过定义等效相似度反应温度、压力和流速的不同权重。在完成当前运行瞬态与各条设计瞬态之间的相似程度后,通过比较相似度值,将运行瞬态归类为设计瞬态。结果通过对"华龙一号"核电厂的设计瞬态和基于设计瞬态摄动获得的虚拟运行瞬态进行验证,文中提出的方法能够快速有效地对运行瞬态进行分类,结果显示,有95%以上的运行瞬态能够被正确识别。结论基于动态时间弯曲算法和等效相似度建立的瞬态识别方法具有高效、准确等优点,能够有效应用于核电厂的疲劳监测系统。     

降水量时间序列变化的小波特征

利用小波变换对降水量时间序列的多时间尺度变化及突变特征进行了探讨。小波变换不仅能将降水量时间序列的频率特征在时间域上展现出来，清晰地给出各种时间尺度的强弱和分布情况以及早涝变化趋势和突变点，而且还能分析出其主要周期。以新安江流域黄山地区主汛期(5—7月)和年降水量为例，计算表明，其年际及年代际时间尺度在时域中分布不均匀，具有明显的局部化特征；同时分析出主汛期降水具有8年、19年左右的周期，年降水存在6年、19年左右的周期；研究还表明，主汛期降水与年降水的时间尺度变化比较接近。     

公众环境意识与可持续发展关系初探

目前,国内存在的各种环境问题,归根到底是由于发展战略的不同所致,人们开始重新去认识和评价传统发展战略的局限性,标志着人类文明即将步入一个被称之"环境文明"新的历史时代.历史文化传统和经济发展水平决定公众环境意识,公众的环境意识直接影响可持续发展战略的实施,如何增强,提出决策和建议,通过大力开展环境宣传教育,提高公众环境意识,可持续发展,实现可持续发展的战略.     

Environmental Persistence of Chemicals

- DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1065/espr2006.01.008 Background The hazard criterion of persistence as it applies to chemicals in the environment is reviewed and discussed. This quantity can not be measured directly in the environment, thus it must be estimated using models that synthesise information on chemical half-lives and partitioning properties, the nature of the environment and how the chemical is released into the environment. Main Features It is suggested that the preferred criterion is the average residence time of the chemical in the environment, i.e. conceptually the sum of the life-times of all molecules (attributable only to losses by degrading reactions) divided by the number of molecules. If all chemical fate processes are first order, this persistence is independent of the quantity of chemical introduced and whether introduction is steady- or unsteady-state in nature. It is shown that in a multimedia environment persistence is affected not only by degradation kinetics, but also by mode-of-entry and partitioning. For screening level purposes a Level II equilibrium model may be adequate but a Level III model is generally preferable for estimating the average persistence. If a distribution of persistences is required a dynamic Level IV model must be used. Discussion The implications for regulating chemicals on the basis of persistence are discussed. Conclusion It is concluded that the preferred strategy is to use Level II, III, and IV models and that the use of only degradation kinetics or media-specific half-lives can be misleading and uneconomical.     

振动加载下转换型密封电磁继电器的性能退化行为研究

目的研究航空用继电器的失效机理。方法通过对电磁继电器进行振动与工作载荷单独施加以及二者综合加载情况下的试验方法及性能退化行为研究,实时监测继电器内部触点间接触电阻等性能参数的变化趋势,并对不同条件下触点表面的微观形貌进行对比分析。结果发现相比较工作载荷单独施加而言,振动应力的加入使得继电器的寿命大幅度降低,并使得触点表面呈现"雪花"一般的形貌。结论振动环境导致了触点之间电弧的变化,以及触点表面接触压力、接触面积和接触超程等,并通过燃弧时间和超程时间的变化趋势对其进行了验证。     

航空用气胀式救生衣的穿戴时间测试

为探究航空用气胀式救生衣穿戴性能,首先,搭建航空座椅试验平台,选择113个大学生和42个成年村民作为对比性测试对象,采用国内各大航空公司均配备的标准救生衣作为穿戴对象开展试验;然后,分析试验结果满足国家标准《航空用气胀式救生衣》(GB/T 36508—2018)中穿戴要求的情况,并采用T检验分析不同性别、年龄、演示水平下穿戴时间的差别是否显著。结果表明:测试的航空用气胀式救生衣穿戴时间无法满足国家标准的要求,且性别、年龄对救生衣穿戴时间无显著性影响,但不同演示水平下穿戴时间的差别十分显著;国家标准中穿戴时间要求、测试对象选择、演示水平等方面与文中研究结论有较大差异,建议更多研究人员通过更详细、更深入的试验,来深入探讨GB/T 36508—2018中这3方面的内容。     

氢气添加对乙醇/空气预混火焰燃烧特性影响的数值模拟研究

通过对不同混合比率的乙醇/氢气/空气燃烧特性进行数值模拟,研究氢气添加量对点火延迟时间、层流燃烧速度、火焰厚度、化学反应滞留时间及组分分布情况的影响。研究发现一定程度上氢气添加量的增加能够缩短混合气体的点火延迟时间,并且氢气对点火延迟时间的影响随着温度的升高而逐渐减小。随着混合比率的增大,层流燃烧速度增大,并且在混合比率大于0.4时显著增大。火焰厚度及化学反应滞留时间随氢气增加而逐渐减小。此外,进一步分析组分分布情况得知氢气添加使火焰中H*、O*、OH*自由基摩尔分数峰值增大,并且H+O+OH摩尔分数峰值与层流燃烧速度存在线性关系。     

Pipeline leakage detection and isolation: An integrated approach of statistical and wavelet feature extraction with multi-layer perceptron neural network (MLPNN)

Leakage diagnosis of hydrocarbon pipelines can prevent environmental and financial losses. This work proposes a novel method that not only detects the occurrence of a leakage fault, but also suggests its location and severity. The OLGA software is employed to provide the pipeline inlet pressure and outlet flow rates as the training data for the Fault Detection and Isolation (FDI) system. The FDI system is comprised of a Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Network (MLPNN) classifier with various feature extraction methods including the statistical techniques, wavelet transform, and a fusion of both methods. Once different leakage scenarios are considered and the preprocessing methods are done, the proposed FDI system is applied to a 20-km pipeline in southern Iran (Goldkari-Binak pipeline) and a promising severity and location detectability (a correct classification rate of 92%) and a low False Alarm Rate (FAR) were achieved.     

Smoldering combustion of dust layer on hot surface

The critical temperature as well as the critical flux for ignition of a dust layer of cornflour and a mixture of wheatflour and cornflour (80% wheatflour+20% cornflour) on a hot plate have been determined. The moulded sample was cylindrical in shape and of different heights and diameters. The particle size of dusts ranged between 63 μm to 150 μm. The temperature–time histories for self-heating without ignition and with ignition are offered, showing the critical boundaries between them. Also the times to ignition for each dust, showing the effect of sample size on their values, are determined. Certain experimental correlations which relate to times to ignition, as well as the critical temperature for ignition and thermal and geometrical dimensions of sample are presented.