Abstract By means of the dynamic regression model, this paper analyzes the relationships among economic growth, urbanization and changes of cultivated land in China, finds that the ratio of cultivated land occupied by economic growth is decreasing with social and economic growth. And, based on that, some policy suggestions on how to promote the sustainable use of cultivated land in China are put forward. 相似文献
Abstract Based on the self-organizing modeling principle in the dissipative structure theory, the paper regards the migration coupling between the regions as the influence factor to create the model of regional urbanization simulation and prediction, which is more practical to simulate the space-time and dynamic evolvement characteristics of regional urbanization level. According to the historical data about the population and urbanization of Jiuquan, Jiayuguan and Yumen cities, the past 50 years' dynamic evolvement trend is simulated and the following 50 years' dynamic evolvement trend is predicted with the urbanization dynamic evolvement model based on the self-organizing model. The analysis of effective factors such as economic increase, resources exploitation, ecosystem construction, traffic location, national policies, population migration are given, then the reasons of the dynamic evolvement differences of the three cities' urbanization are drawn. The study suggests that the self-organizing model is fit for the simulation of Jiuquan-Jiayuguan-Yumen regional urbanization level in the past 50 years, and the departure between the stimulant and the actual data is under 5%, so it can be used to predict the urbanization future of the three cities. The predicted results show that the regional population will reach 1.074 million and the regional urbanization level will be 72.56%. 相似文献
Abstract This paper aims to estimate the effects of changing life style and consumption demands driven by income growth and urbanization on increase of energy requirements in China, and estimate the impacts of improvement in household consumption on mitigating energy requirements towards 2020, based on input-output analysis and scenarios simulation approach. The result shows that energy requirement per capita has increased by 159% for urban residents and 147% for rural residents from 1995 to 2004. Growth in household consumption driven by income growth and urbanization may induce a successive increase in energy requirements in future. Per capita energy requirements of urban residents will increase by 240% during 2002–2015 and 330% during 2002–2020. Urbanization might lead to 0.75 billion ton of increment of energy requirements in 2020. About 45%–48% of total energy requirements in China might be a consequence of residents’ life styles and the economic activities to support consumption demands in 2020. Under low-carbon life style scenario, per capita energy requirements of urban residents may decline to 97% in 2015 and 92% in 2020 in contrast with baseline scenario. That implies that China needs to pay a great attention to developing green low-carbon life style in order to realize mitigation target towards 2020. 相似文献
Contamination of soils by heavy metals is of rising concern in many cities in China undergoing rapid urbanization. Here, we evaluate the severity of soil contamination by four heavy metals (arsenic, chromium, copper, and lead) at 146 urban and suburban sites within the city of Xiamen, Fujian, China. A multivariate regression model was proposed and developed to simulate heavy metals accumulation in urban and suburban soils, to identify the concentration and spatial distribution of heavy metals in soils, and to assess ecological risks by 2020. Results showed that, overall, Xiamen soils should be subject to low ecological risks due to heavy metals contamination by 2020, the ecological risks for urban soils were greater than suburban soils, nearly half of Xiamen soils are at moderate ecological risks, and many suburban soils experience low ecological risks. The methods demonstrate the potential to predict future ecological risks from heavy metals contamination which could inform pollution prevention and control measures. 相似文献
This Impacts article proposes strategies for mitigating negative impacts of urbanization in rural locations in the United States. Issues addressed include impacts of population growth and development, loss of agricultural lands, and impacts of climate change on agriculture and rural communities. Conclusions are supported by stakeholder survey data, geographic information systems-based data, and desktop reviews of research journal publications. We propose a sustainable, diversified approach that supports mitigation of issues, including increasing demand on food production and decline of rural communities. A key issue that we address is where we will find suitable landscapes to reduce enough food for 9.6 billion people living in 2050.
Urban and rural development planners are grappling with solutions to escalating impacts global populations, stresses on food production, and effects of climate change. Solutions are identified, including strengthening rural and urban contexts by establishing connected and interdependent links that support diversification of rural and urban contexts as viable solutions to these issues.
Diversified rural-to-urban sustainable agriculture production is a promising approach to addressing climate change impacts. Organic agriculture principles exhibit strong diversity and are accredited by United States Department of Agriculture as the only federally certified sustainable agriculture practice in the United States. Sustainable agriculture practices are evolving into profitable diversified alternative food sources. We offer substantiated alternative solutions for remediating impacts of urbanization on rural agriculture and communities. Collectively, these solutions can strengthen symbiotic relationships between sustainable agriculture and rural communities, addressing our growing population issues and preserving our dwindling farmlands and rural communities. 相似文献