Conservation implications of physiological carry‐over effects in bats recovering from white‐nose syndrome

Although it is well documented that infectious diseases can pose threats to biodiversity, the potential long‐term consequences of pathogen exposure on individual fitness and its effects on population viability have rarely been studied. We tested the hypothesis that pathogen exposure causes physiological carry‐over effects with a pathogen that is uniquely suited to this question because the infection period is specific and time limited. The fungus Pseudogymnoascus destructans causes white‐nose syndrome (WNS) in hibernating bats, which either die due to the infection while hibernating or recover following emergence from hibernation. The fungus infects all exposed individuals in an overwintering site simultaneously, and bats that survive infection during hibernation clear the pathogen within a few weeks following emergence. We quantified chronic stress during the active season, when bats are not infected, by measuring cortisol in bat claws. Free‐ranging Myotis lucifugus who survived previous exposure to P. destructans had significantly higher levels of claw cortisol than naïve individuals. Thus, cryptic physiological carry‐over effects of pathogen exposure may persist in asymptomatic, recovered individuals. If these effects result in reduced survival or reproductive success, they could also affect population viability and even act as a third stream in the extinction vortex. For example, significant increases in chronic stress, such as those indicated here, are correlated with reduced reproductive success in a number of species. Future research should directly explore the link between pathogen exposure and the viability of apparently recovered populations to improve understanding of the true impacts of infectious diseases on threatened populations.     

Reservoir‐host amplification of disease impact in an endangered amphibian

Emerging wildlife pathogens are an increasing threat to biodiversity. One of the most serious wildlife diseases is chytridiomycosis, caused by the fungal pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), which has been documented in over 500 amphibian species. Amphibians vary greatly in their susceptibility to Bd; some species tolerate infection, whereas others experience rapid mortality. Reservoir hosts—species that carry infection while maintaining high abundance but are rarely killed by disease—can increase extinction risk in highly susceptible, sympatric species. However, whether reservoir hosts amplify Bd in declining amphibian species has not been examined. We investigated the role of reservoir hosts in the decline of the threatened northern corroboree frog (Pseudophryne pengilleyi) in an amphibian community in southeastern Australia. In the laboratory, we characterized the response of a potential reservoir host, the (nondeclining) common eastern froglet (Crinia signifera), to Bd infection. In the field, we conducted frog abundance surveys and Bd sampling for both P. pengilleyi and C. signifera. We built multinomial logistic regression models to test whether Crinia signifera and environmental factors were associated with P. pengilleyi decline. C. signifera was a reservoir host for Bd. In the laboratory, many individuals maintained intense infections (>1000 zoospore equivalents) over 12 weeks without mortality, and 79% of individuals sampled in the wild also carried infections. The presence of C. signifera at a site was strongly associated with increased Bd prevalence in sympatric P. pengilleyi. Consistent with disease amplification by a reservoir host, P. pengilleyi declined at sites with high C. signifera abundance. Our results suggest that when reservoir hosts are present, population declines of susceptible species may continue long after the initial emergence of Bd, highlighting an urgent need to assess extinction risk in remnant populations of other declined amphibian species.     

基于各向异性粒子介电常数张量重构的散射特性研究

目的简化各向异性介质中的光电传播、目标散射识别等问题。方法基于电场强度矢量和电位移矢量的关系,提出将各向异性介质的介电常数张量重构为对角张量通用方法。结果给出了对角张量元素的表达式和对应单位特征矢量,并作了详细的数值计算。得到了单位特征矢量坐标系中电磁场与原坐标系中电磁场的变换关系以及磁导率张量的变换关系;所用方法具有通用性,所得结果具有实用性。结论在各向异性介质研究领域,可实现特征坐标系中的电磁场及介质参数与主坐标系的电磁场与介质参数的相互定量转换。     

ABC算法优化SVR的磨损故障预测模型

目的为了提高故障预测的精度,针对支持向量回归SVR(Support vector machine for regression,SVR)参数选择困难的问题,提出一种采用人工蜂群(artificial bee colony,ABC)算法优化支持向量回归(SVR)的故障预测模型(ABC-SVR)。方法该模型先对样本数据进行重构,然后将故障预测误差(适应度)作为优化目标,通过ABC算法寻优找到最优的SVR参数,建立故障预测模型。最后通过实例仿真验证模型的优越性。结果采用ABC算法优化的SVR故障预测模型进行时间序列预测,能够较好地跟踪发动机滑油金属元素浓度的变化过程,并且能够提前2个取样时间预测异常情况的出现。结论 ABC-SVR模型有效解决了SVR参数选择难题,能够更加准确地表现故障变化规律,提高了故障预测精度。     

舰载短波天线现存问题及对策

从多年工作经验出发,综述了某测量船舰载短波天线使用过程中出现的主要问题及潜在严重后果,从材料、结构等方面对其进行了深入分析,指出环境考虑不足、材料选择不当、结构存在缺陷是引发以上问题的根本原因。同时,结合工程实践,就如何在现有条件下提高舰载短波天线的可靠性,分别从如何选用合适材料、改进结构设计给出了意见建议。     

应用地磁场的弹体飞行姿态测量方法研究

常规弹药的简易制导化是常规弹药改造的一个重要途径,是目前研究的热点之一,可以在低成本下大大提高常规弹药的精度,弹道修正弹是其中的一个重要发展方向,而弹体姿态实时测量是其中的一项关键技术。介绍了弹体姿态测量中基于地磁场的姿态测量方法,将其分为组合姿态测量和单矢量测量,并对测量方法做出了分析,阐述了应用地磁场的姿态测量的重要意义。     

一种基于状态向量推理的SDG-HAZOP分析方法

HAZOP是分析系统可靠性的一种有效方法,在石油、化工工业中得到了广泛应用。但人工HAZOP分析存在费时、费力、成本高等缺点,而计算机辅助SDG-HAZOP分析的提出有效地改善了人工分析的弊端,然而传统的计算机辅助SDG-HAZOP是纯定性的分析与推理,分析的结果往往过于冗繁。本文介绍了一种改进的基于状态向量推理的计算机辅助SDG-HAZOP分析方法,该方法基于SDG定性模型,构造了一个计算机自动推理引擎,并引入了状态向量的概念,通过正向反向推理,快速高效地发掘出偏差产生的后果和原因。通过应用实践表明,与人工HAZOP分析法和现有SDG-HAZOP分析方法相比,该方法具有完备性好、评价结果系统性和条理性强等优点。     

灾变性事件引起的消费品产业链价格波及效应研究

为了研究地震等灾变性事件对于消费品产业链内价格传递和市场的影响,本文利用从2008年2月至2009年3月四川省江油市畜产业链进行实证研究,使用向量纠错模型（VECM）和历史分解图（HDG）分析了价格调整的动态效果和沿产业链的因果关系。结果表明,价格的调整关于速度和大小都是不对称的,外生震荡对于该产业链的不同层面产生不同影响,导致价格差益的扩大和价格不完全传递。该方法能够有效地分析灾变事件条件下消费品产业链内价格波及效应问题。     

基于距离相关系数和支持向量机回归的PM2.5浓度滚动统计预报方案

针对目前空气质量统计预报方法存在的主要缺陷,本文提出了距离相关系数和支持向量机回归相结合的统计预报方案DC-SVR.利用淮安市2013年1—12月PM_(2.5)观测资料和常规气象观测资料,首先在选入预报当日气象要素的基础上,增加选取前期污染物和气象要素作为预报因子,再采用距离相关系数分季节从预报因子中筛选出重要预报因子,最后采用支持向量机回归对PM_(2.5)浓度值进行逐日滚动统计预报.研究发现,淮安地区气温和气压对PM_(2.5)的距离相关性要高于其他气象要素,夏秋季PM_(2.5)与气象要素的距离相关性较春冬季好.基于距离相关系数和支持向量机回归建立DC-SVR模型,PM_(2.5)的试预报值和实测值的全年相关系数高达0.76,平均偏差仅为1.13μg·m~(-3),平均绝对误差为23.47μg·m~(-3).通过与支持向量机回归、人工神经网络的统计预报效果对比,DC-SVR模型有效降低预报因子维数且能自适应选取最佳参数,预报精度显著优于其他3种统计预报方案,可为业务化预报提供参考.     

基于EMD-HHT可定位长输天然气管道第三方破坏事件监测技术

为适应目前管道安全监测需要,满足对扰动信号分类监测的实际需求,提出1种基于希尔伯变换和经验模态分解(EMD-HHT)的信号特征提取技术,利用基于φ-OTDR分布式光纤传感系统采集振动信号,通过EMD+HHT区分算法对管道沿线振动事件进行分解并提取6个典型特征向量,各特征事件数据经过EMD后选取IMF3为最终提取特征向量的原始数据,BP神经元网络可有效识别机械破坏、敲击破坏、车辆经过、人工挖掘、动力干扰5种事件。研究结果表明：在长输管道信号识别中,BP神经网络对5类事件平均识别率高达98.6%,该技术分类识别5类事件扰动信号,能够达到较高准确性,并且误报率平均在1.3%,能较好满足现场安全实时监测需求。研究结果对长输油气管道附近第三方破坏扰动信号分类监测具有一定参考意义。