Reply: Investor demand and spot commodity prices

In a recent article (Tilton, Humphreys, and Radetzki, 2011), Tilton et al. argue that even when investor stocks are declining an increase in investor demand can cause a commodity's price to rise. They contend that this conclusion, which is based on two hypothetical examples, is both contrary to conventional wisdom and counter-intuitive. In my comment on the article (Olle Östensson, 2011), I challenged this finding. In a reply to my article, Tilton et al. maintain that their original finding is valid: investor demand can be driving commodity prices higher even when stocks are falling. In my present reply, I contend that their argument with respect to the first example confuses the actions of a minority of investors with those of all investors and is well accommodated within the framework of traditional theory. I further argue that their second example rests on an assumption regarding investor behavior that is unproven and that in any case falls outside the framework of analysis of futures markets.     

Investor demand and spot commodity prices: Reply

In a recent article (Tilton et al., 2011), we argue that even when investor stocks are declining an increase in investor demand can cause a commodity's price to rise, a conclusion that is both contrary to conventional wisdom and counter-intuitive. In his comment on our article, Olle Östensson (2011) challenges this finding. After assessing his concerns in this reply, we maintain that our original finding is valid: investor demand can be driving commodity prices higher even when investor stocks are falling.     

中国城市土地市场有效性的实证研究

将有效市场假说应用于我国城市土地市场中,利用全国土地交易价格指数,采用序列相关检验、游程检验和方差比检验3种方法分别对我国城市土地市场的弱式有效性进行了实证检验,一致得出我国城市土地市场尚未达到弱式有效的结论.提出了对策建议:①营造公平、公开、公正的土地市场环境,发挥市场在配置土地资源方面的基础性作用.②打破对一级土地市场的垄断,构建城乡一体化的土地市场.③构建完善的土地市场指数系统,强化信息基础平台建设.     

光电探测器微变信号放大电路的设计和分析

针对火灾探测过程中的光电探测器输出的微弱信号设计了一个微变信号提取放大电路。将探测器内阻分解为微变内阻和不变内阻,采用两路取样信号方法进行差模放大。经过计算选择了特定的电路参数,使得电路输出和探测器微变内阻成正比关系,从而实现了微变信号的放大。用斩波方法进行了电路输出性能的实验。对电路参数的选择以及温漂问题进行了详细分析。     

梁锚结构加固浅埋隧道洞口软弱地层的承载特性研究

针对隧道洞口埋深浅且软弱围岩稳定性差这一问题,提出在地表增设混凝土框架梁,设置扩大头锚杆与框架梁连接并深入软弱围岩,运用数值模拟分析“混凝土框架梁-扩大头锚杆”结构加固软弱地层后的力学特性。研究结果表明：采用“混凝土框架梁-扩大头锚杆”加固隧道洞口软弱地层,k=0.4时,相比于没有加固对照模型,隧道最大拱顶沉降值下降68.7%,隧道最大边墙收敛值下降15.1%,初期支护最大等效应力减小12.7%;建立不同加固区围岩松动压力分散系数k下的数值模型,通过拱顶沉降结果与加固区围岩松动压力分散系数的线性拟合,提出采用加固结构后的隧道拱顶沉降规律与围岩松动压力计算方法。     

弱层台阶边坡可靠度非侵入式随机分析*

为确保复杂结构边坡的安全稳定,针对弱层台阶边坡可靠性开展非侵入式随机分析。以抗剪参数为随机变量,采用局部平均法进行随机场离散,采用随机场和Monte Carlo(SMC)法编制程序进行数值计算,并与Monte Carlo(MC)法结果进行比较。结果表明:利用非侵入式随机分析方法计算可靠度效率更高且易于实现;随机场可以反映岩体力学参数的空间变异性以及参数之间相关特性,更接近于实际情况,弱层对边坡稳定性有重要影响,会导致边坡安全系数降低,且最大位移会显著增大;采用MC法会过度放大边坡的失效概率,而SMC法得到的结果更可靠。该结论可为复杂结构边坡的可靠性分析提供参考。     

软弱围岩节理性质对隧道塌方范围影响研究*

为探究节理岩体在节理扩展-节理破坏-岩体失稳过程中的力学特性变化及变形破坏规律,采用块体离散元软件3DEC进行数值模拟,对节理岩体中隧道开挖后围岩的应力变形状态进行研究。结果表明:法向刚度较小时,可能造成的塌方范围大,法向刚度较大时,造成的塌方范围小;节理剪切刚度对隧道塌方范围的影响较小;节理内摩擦角变化对断层塌落体及上覆未塌落体范围的影响较小。     

高效离子色谱法检测F- 、CH3 COO- 、HCOO- 、Cl - 的方法研究

在对离子色谱分析的研究过程中,建立了以0.12mmol/L Na2CO3和0.15mmol/L Na2HCO3为淋洗液,12.5mmol/L H2SO4为微膜抑制器的再生液,用HPIC－AS3串联HPIC－AG3的色谱系统,一次进样50mL可在8min内检测出μg/L级的F^-、CH3COO^-、HCOO^-、Cl^-,方法简便、经济快捷。经实验,甲酸、乙酸的检出限分别为2.56μg/L和17.4μg/L,F^-、Cl^-为1.87μg/L和8.82μg/L;方法精密度的相对标准差在0．4％－2．0％范围,样品加标回收率在97．7％－103．5％之间,完全能够满足降水样品和大气样品中F^-、Cl^-和低碳有机酸（甲酸、乙酸）的分析要求。在同一系统中只需要增加淋洗液浓度,采用一级梯度洗淋亦可完成对同一样品中其他阴离子（NO3^-、SO4^2-、PO4^3-）的检测。     

新疆生态可持续发展的主要制约因子及脆弱区域分析

自然生态系统的可持续发展是社会一经济系统可持续发展的基本保证,明确区域生态可持续发展的主要制约因子和生态脆弱区域是评价区域生态系统发展的可持续性、制定可持续发展战略及实施综合措施的关键步骤。本文分析了新疆生态可持续发展的主要制约因子和生态脆弱区域。结果表明,水资源危机、土地荒漠化、耕地资源危机及森林减少等是限制新疆生态可持续发展的主要制约因子;干旱绿洲-沙漠过渡地区和内陆河（湖）流域为重点生态脆弱区域。在此基础上,提出了新疆生态系统可持续发展的对策建议。     

Decomposition of alachlor by ozonation and its mechanism

Decomposition and corresponding mechanism of alachlor, an endocrine disruptor in water by ozonation were investigated. Results showed that alachlor could not be completely mineralized by ozone alone. Many intermediates and final products were formed during the process, including aromatic compounds, aliphatic carboxylic acids, and inorganic ions. In evoluting these products, some of them with weak polarity were qualitatively identified by GC-MS. The information of inorganic ions suggested that the dechlorination was the first and the fastest step in the ozonation of alachlor.