火力发电厂汽轮机的安全评价

介绍了火力发电厂设备中的汽轮机的本体结构, 以及汽轮机的安全评价内容.针对汽轮机的本身特点和安全评价内容,提出了两种安全评价方法对汽轮机进行安全评价.     

基于模糊贴近度的组织安全文化评估方法

鉴于组织安全文化评估过程中,各因素指标及其相互作用关系具有模糊性,引入模糊数学理论,提出一种基于模糊贴近度的组织安全文化评估(SCA)方法。首先,构建组织安全文化因素指标体系以及确定SCA特征状态模式;其次,依据模糊语言隶属度函数以及特征状态模式,确定指标与SCA等级的隶属度;第三,确定指标与各等级的非对称贴近度,依据模糊贴近度判断矩阵进行评估决策;最后,以核电组织安全文化为例,通过对比分析进行方法的验证。实例分析结果的一致性表明:该方法能有效量化系统状态与各评估等级之间的贴近程度,能解决安全文化以及评估状态的模糊性问题,且评估结果与实际状态相吻合。     

基于模糊熵和非对称贴近度的安全预警评估方法

针对系统安全风险评估和预警过程中,系统安全特性和各预警因素所存在的模糊不确定性问题,将熵理论和模糊数学相结合,提出一种基于模糊熵和非对称贴近度的系统安全预警评估方法。在建立系统安全预警评估指标体系的基础上,首先,分析基于模糊熵理论确定预警指标权重的可行性,给出系统预警指标赋权算法;其次,建立基于模糊非对称贴近度确定系统安全等级的过程,第三,给出系统安全预警评估的具体计算步骤;最后,以人为因素系统的安全预警评估为例进行方法的实例验证。实例分析结果表明采用该方法所确定的系统预警指标权重更加符合客观实际,能有效解决系统安全预警评估中存在的模糊不确定性问题,系统预警决策结果合理有效。     

Numerical simulation of small-scale pool fires of LNG

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) has been largely indicated as a promising alternative solution for the transportation and storage of natural gas. In the case of accidental release on the ground, a pool fire scenario may occur. Despite the relevance of this accident, due to its likelihood and potential to trigger domino effects, accurate analyses addressing the characterization of pool fires of LNG are still missing.In this work, the fire dynamic simulator (FDS) has been adopted for the evaluation of the effects of the released amount of fuel and its composition (methane, ethane, and propane), on the thermal and chemical properties of small-scale LNG pool fire. More specifically, the heat release rate, the burning rate, the flame height, and thermal radiation, at different initial conditions, have been evaluated for pool having diameter smaller than 10 m. Safety distances have been calculated for all the investigated conditions, as well.Results have also been compared with data and correlations retrieved from the current literature. The equation of Thomas seems to work properly for the definition of the height over diameter ratio of the LNG pool fire for all the mixture and the investigated diameters.The addition of ethane and propane significantly affects the obtained results, especially in terms of radiative thermal radiation peaks, thus indicating the inadequacy of the commonly adopted assumption of pure methane as single, surrogate species for the LNG mixture.     

基于改进TOPSIS的受灾点需求紧迫性分级研究

地震发生初期,各受灾点对物资需求的紧迫性存在差异。在应急资源有限的情况下,为提高救援效率,应急资源需要按照受灾点需求紧迫性优先级进行分配和调度。首先,构建了受灾点需求紧迫性评价指标体系,并采用博弈论方法将熵权法和层次分析法相结合,确定权重组合系数及各评价指标综合权重。其次,利用马氏距离和灰色关联分析改进TOPSIS方法,建立了受灾点应急物资需求紧迫性分级模型。最后,将模型应用于受灾点应急物资需求紧迫性分级研究,并将该评价结果与传统TOPSIS法的评价结果进行比较,结果表明,该评价方法可以科学、客观地确定权重组合系数,消除指标间相关性,使评价结果符合实际情况,表明该评价方法科学、可行、有效,能为应急救援物资配送提供有效支持和决策。     

非对称开采条件下工作面“多向应力”变化特征研究

在非对称开采条件下,工作面受上覆岩层自重应力、超前支承应力、采空区侧向支承应力和回风巷煤柱应力等“多向应力”叠加影响,使得工作面应力呈“非对称”性。为研究非对称开采条件下工作面“多向应力”变化特征,基于微震监测、应力在线监测和理论计算,对母杜柴登煤矿30202工作面回采过程中所形成的非对称开采条件下的应力变化进行分析;并基于工作面所受应力条件和围岩体结构条件,分析了“多向应力”叠加显现机理。结果表明:30202工作面回采期间,煤柱支承应力沿走向分为应力升高区、应力明显降低区、应力缓慢降低区和应力稳定区,其应力峰值主要集中在工作面前方40 m左右,应力集中系数平均为1.61;在非对称开采阶段,在走向方向工作面超前支承应力影响范围较回采初期增加了100 m左右;在不考虑垂直应力影响的情况下,相邻工作面采空区的侧向应力对30202工作面倾向方向的影响范围为44 m,应力最大值为56.1 MPa。在“多向应力”耦合作用下工作面在回采过程中产生能量集聚,并在采动扰动下发生能量释放,满足了大能量事件发生的基本应力条件;同时在扰动条件下采空区发生高位顶板错动,以及围岩支护薄弱为大能量事件的发生提供了围岩结构条件。研究结果可为工作面非对称开采条件下采场矿压显现规律研究、顶板控制和巷道支护设计提供指导。     

陆上原油长输管道泄漏爆炸事故情景构建研究

以某陆上原油长输管道为例,设定了陆上原油长输管道泄漏爆炸事故情景背景信息及演化过程,从预防、准备、预警、响应、恢复等阶段,梳理分析了事故情景应对全过程的任务及职责主体;针对各项任务从计划预案、人员队伍、装备物资、培训演练、运行机制等方面开展了情景应对能力评估;并针对存在的差距和不足,从企业和政府2个层面提出了针对此类情景的应急能力提升对策建议。该研究可为相关政府及企业加强油气长输管道事故应急准备能力建设提供参考。     

生态旅游区不同距离带上植物群落的结构对比

通过对芦芽山自然保护区植物群落的结构分析 ,揭示旅游活动和群落演替的内在机理 ,为景区植被保护和旅游管理提供依据 .结果表明 :不同地段上各植被层由于各种因素的影响而有所不同 ,大部分景区的植被生长良好 .不同距离带上各植被层大致表现出近距离 <中距离 <远距离的格局规律 ,但其明显度不尽一致 ,说明各植被层反映旅游活动对群落结构作用程度的能力大小依次为乔木层 <灌木层 <苔藓层 <草本层 .5个旅游影响因子的变化趋势 ,反映了旅游活动对群落生态环境的结构作用的规律 .距游径的水平距离愈远 ,垃圾量愈少 ,林下死枝下高愈高 ,枯层愈厚 ,树桩量愈多 ,幼苗量也愈多 .不同距离带上的变化规律客观地描绘了旅游活动的规律性变化 ,近距离处旅游活动强度最大 ,中距离处次之 ,远距离处则最小 .图 1表 1参 8     

Modelling and analysis of recruitment distributions

Recruitment data for 18 marine fish stocks are smoothed using 10 parametric families of probability distributions. Comparative fit of the 10 families is assessed by means of the maximized log-likelihood. Results indicate that the gamma distribution provides an overall good fit in the right-hand tail of the data, but that some adjustment to the gamma distribution is called for in the left-hand tail. Weight functions and weighted distributions are suggested as one means of achieving the needed adjustment.     

Does information of predators influence general wariness?

Antipredator behavior includes several qualitatively distinct activities, but few studies have determined the degree to which these activities are independent. If behaviors are not independent, then the nature of the relationship would illustrate potential performance constraints. We studied crimson rosellas (Platycercus elegans) and first focused on acoustic predator discrimination. We measured time allocation before and after playback of one of three experimental treatments (peregrine falcons—Falco peregrinus, wedge-tailed eagles—Aquila audax, and crimson rosellas) to determine whether or not rosellas discriminated predators from non-predators, and specifically whether or not they discriminated large from small predators. We then focused on the decision to flee. We experimentally approached subjects and measured the distance at which they oriented to us (alert distance) and the distance at which they fled (flight initiation distance; FID). We found that rosellas could distinguish among predators; however, there was no effect on general wariness as measured by FID. These two processes of antipredator behavior may, thus, be independent.