Identifying climate change refugia for South American biodiversity

Refugia-based conservation offers long-term effectiveness and minimize uncertainty on strategies for climate change adaptation. We used distribution modelling to identify climate change refugia for 617 terrestrial mammals and to quantify the role of protected areas (PAs) in providing refugia across South America. To do so, we compared species potential distribution across different scenarios of climate change, highlighting those regions likely to retain suitable climatic conditions by year 2090, and explored the proportion of refugia inside PAs. Moist tropical forests in high-elevation areas with complex topography concentrated the highest local diversity of species refugia, although regionally important refugia centers occurred elsewhere. Andean–Amazon forests contained climate change refugia for more than half of the continental species’ pool and for up to 87 species locally (17 × 17 km² grid cell). The highlands of the southern Atlantic Forest also included megadiverse refugia for up to 76 species per cell. Almost half of the species that may find refugia in the Atlantic Forest will do so in a single region—the Serra do Mar and Serra do Espinhaço. Most of the refugia we identified, however, were not in PAs, which may contain <6% of the total area of climate change refugia, leaving 129–237 species with no refugia inside the territorial limits of PAs of any kind. Our results reveal a dismal scenario for the level of refugia protection in some of the most biodiverse regions of the world. Nonetheless, because refugia tend to be in high-elevation, topographically complex, and remote areas, with lower anthropogenic pressure, formally protecting them may require a comparatively modest investment.     

Forest frontiers out of control: The long-term effects of discourses,policies, and markets on conservation and development of the Brazilian Amazon

With the Brazilian military governments of the 1960s, systematic economic development of the Amazon began. Social and environmental concerns have entered Amazonian discourses and policies only since the 1990s. Since then, reports of threats to forests and indigenous people have alternated with reports of socio-economic progress and environmental achievements. These contradictions often arise from limited thematic, sectoral, temporal, or spatial perspectives, and lead to misinterpretation. Our paper offers a comprehensive picture of discourses, policies, and socio-environmental dynamics for the entire region over the last five decades. We distinguish eight historical policy phases, each of which had little effect on near-linear dynamics of demographic growth and land-use expansion, although some policies showed the potential to change the course of development. To prevent local, national, and international actors from continuing to assert harmful interests in the region, a coherent long-term commitment and change in the collective mindset are needed.     

Modeling road building,deforestation and carbon emissions due deforestation in the Ecuadorian Amazon: the potential impact of oil frontier growth

In the Ecuadorian Amazon roads play the major role in transforming land cover. Since the beginning of the oil development in this region, oil exploration and road building have been linked. The objectives of this paper are twofold: First, to present a scenario of future deforestation as result of expanding the oil frontier in the Ecuadorian Amazon until the year 2030. Second, to produce an analysis of possible carbon emission scenarios as results of the deforestation produced. This paper tries to shed light into how the development of new oil concessions impact land associated environmental services. The paper uses spatial explicit simulations, that are based on parameters built using past land transitions from areas that experimented oil development, and that explain possible outcomes in the year 2030 using current and predicted road network. Simulations indicate that under current transition probabilities and a conservative scenario road construction, more than 2 million hectares will be affected, which is 35% of the area covered by concessions, which would release 51 to 148 MT of carbon to the atmosphere. This paper illustrates the strong links between road building and deforestation, where even small amount of road construction can have large effects on land cover.     

Socioeconomic Drivers of Deforestation in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon

Investigations of land use/land cover (LULC) change and forest management are limited by a lack of understanding of how socioeconomic factors affect land use. This lack also constrains the predictions of future deforestation, which is especially important in the Amazon basin, where large tracts of natural forest are being converted to managed uses. Research presented in this article was conducted to address this lack of understanding. Its objectives are (a) to quantify deforestation in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon (NEA) during the periods 1986–1996 and 1996–2002; and (b) to determine the significance and magnitude of the effects of socioeconomic factors on deforestation rates at both the parroquia (parish) and finca (farm) levels. Annual deforestation rates were quantified via satellite image processing and geographic information systems. Linear spatial lag regression analyses were then used to explore relationships between socioeconomic factors and deforestation. Socioeconomic factors were obtained, at the finca level, from a detailed household survey carried out in 1990 and 1999, and at the parroquia level from data in the 1990 and 2001 Ecuadorian censuses of population. We found that the average annual deforestation rate was 2.5% and 1.8%/year for 1986–1996 and 1996–2002, respectively. At the parroquia level, variables representing demographic factors (i.e., population density) and accessibility factors (i.e., road density), among others, were found to be significantly related to deforestation. At the farm level, the factors related to deforestation were household size, distance by road to main cities, education, and hired labor. The findings of this research demonstrate both the severity of deforestation in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon and the array of factors affecting deforestation in the tropics.     

Indigenous Power Struggles in the Peruvian Amazon: A Spatio-cultural Analysis of Communication

It is well established that external national policies and internal ethnic politics contribute to indigenous power struggles that create a disharmonious indigenous voice. The purpose of this paper is to interrogate how such fissures intersect with internal, covert communication forces embedded in indigenous communities. Based on a case study of Peru’s national indigenous Amazonian organization Asociación Interétnica de Desarrollo de la Selva Peruana (AIDESEP or the Interethnic Association for the Development of the Peruvian Rainforest), the authors advance a geographical perspective of communication to interrogate the physical and social spaces that contribute to and fragment indigenous public spheres, drawing from a content analysis of interviews and news media reports. The aim is to analyse how power—influenced by the spatio-cultural effects on communication—divided a national indigenous voice following Peru’s 2009 Amazon conflict.     

How to overcome the development deadlock in the Quilombo Vila Formosa,Brazil?

ABSTRACT

Although Brazilian Quilombolas possess specific land rights referring to their past as African slaves, the realization of such rights often fails due to the absence of land surveys, clarified institutional competencies and the general lack of power under which minorities suffer. Additional factors such as an expanding commercial agriculture contributing to land and water degradation and new actors introducing new logics intransparent to traditional populations often aggravate the situation. In order to identify options for traditional populations to overcome a development-deadlock typical for peripheral regions, the case of a Quilombo in Pará/Brazil will be analysed that has been struggling since decades with conflicting land tenure legislations and institutions. Starting from an inter- and transdisciplinary qualitative research process, scenario building by backcasting can represent an innovative approach to organize the central conflicts which have to be solved in order to overcome the development deadlock of the Quilombo Vila Formosa in Pará.     

WSSD 2002, Latin America and Brazil: Biodiversity and Indigenous People

Latin America comprehends notable variations in terms of natural environment, availability of natural resources, living standards, and demographic patterns. Latin America is a mosaic of cultures, post- and pre-Columbian. The rich variety of life forms discovered and described by chroniclers and traveling naturalists in the Neotropics contributed to the proposal, in mid-XVIIIth century, of a new system of classification and a scientific code of nomenclature for all organisms. Biodiversity was, for many centuries, a source of resources to be exploited in natura. In scientific circles, its inventory became the domain of taxonomists. But modern technology showed how important the miriad of life forms really are as sources of chemical molecules to be engineered as drugs and reassembled as novel manufactured products. We are on the brink of a new agricultural and medical revolution, thanks to the techniques of genetic engineering, which will lead eventually to the elimination of hunger and malnutrition.In this essay, the Brazilian environmental and social heterogeneity will serve as an example to illustrate some key points, which have influenced sustainability policies. The Amazon deforestation and indigenous knowledge (IK), subjects often associated with areas of high biodiversity, are usually the focus of environmental debates. The importance of IK in integrating development, reducing poverty and sustainability are considered together with the intellectual property rights of native populations.In the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) Implementation Plan, a few paragraphs were dedicated to Latin America, because of the pre-existing Action Platform on the Road to Johannesburg 2002, approved in Rio de Janeiro in October 2001. This paper calls attention to the need to draw up specific environmental policies for a region which shows an extremely high cultural and biological diversity, associated with a high availability of forests and water, among other resources.     

Socio-environmental conflicts on hydropower: The São Luiz do Tapajós project in Brazil

Economic expansion and related resource and infrastructure needs provoke an increase of socio-environmental conflicts worldwide, and methodologies for their comprehensive analysis and understanding are necessary. The present paper suggests a methodology for the analysis of socio-environmental conflicts on hydropower, developed from a case study on the São Luiz do Tapajós project in Brazil. On the basis of qualitative semi-structured interviews, a stakeholder definition and conflict analysis were carried out. The analysis shows that at least five different sub-conflicts, each one with its own characteristics, can be distinguished, and that negotiation on many of these conflicts is difficult. Confrontation processes are therefore likely to occur. The current strategy of conflict treatment falls short of the situation; instead solutions must be sought looking at the underlying conflict causes. A restructuring of the energy policy and the approach to traditional populations is a necessary precondition if robust and comprehensive solutions on the current socio-environmental conflicts on hydropower in the Amazon were to be found.     

An optimized policy for the reduction of CO2 emission in the Brazilian Legal Amazon

The Brazilian government has already acknowledged the importance of investing in the development and application of technologies to reduce or prevent CO₂ emissions resulting from human activities in the Legal Brazilian Amazon (BA). The BA corresponds to a total area of 5 × 10⁶ km² from which 4 × 10⁶ km² was originally covered by the rain forest. One way to interfere with the net balance of greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions is to increase the forest area to sequester CO₂ from the atmosphere. The single most important cause of depletion of the rain forest is cattle ranching. In this work, we present an effective policy to reduce the net balance of CO₂ emissions using optimal control theory to obtain a compromising partition of investments in reforestation and promotion of clear technology to achieve a CO₂ emission target for 2020. The simulation indicates that a CO₂ emission target for 2020 of 376 million tonnes requires an estimated forest area by 2020 of 3,708,000 km², demanding a reforestation of 454,037 km². Even though the regional economic growth can foster the necessary political environment for the commitment with optimal emission targets, the reduction of 38.9% of carbon emissions until 2020 proposed by Brazilian government seems too ambitious.     

Framing frontier governance through territorial processes in the Brazilian Amazon

The policy intervention to enforce property rights and control deforestation frontiers is often undermined in the Brazilian Amazon, and this intervention problem is considered to be stemming from weak frontier governance. However, little has been understood how this governance can be strengthened in the context of social change. Drawing on a literature review of the Amazon development and sociological studies of space, this article argues that frontier governance is characterised by the co-generation of two territorial processes: the official settlement implementation (physical spacing) and the spontaneous settlers' shaping of the vernacular community (production of place). The co-generation process opens new deliberative space where both state and non-state actors claim authority over the intervention. Therefore, strengthening frontier governance involves empowering this emerging authority to be able to promote public engagement with sustainable development on the frontier. The article uses the regional history and ethnographic material collected in the southeast of Pará to illustrate the discussion.