A Framework for Comprehensive,Integrated, Watershed Monitoring in New York City

The International Life SciencesInstitute (ILSI) Risk Science Institute (RSI) convenedan expert panel of scientists to developrecommendations for a comprehensive monitoring programfor the Croton and Catskill/Delaware watersheds, whichprovide drinking water to New York City's residents. This effort was conducted as part of efforts topreserve and enhance the quality of New York City'sreservoir system through a watershed protectionprogram. The panel developed recommendations for astrategic framework on which to construct a monitoringprogram. As part of this activity, the paneldetermined whether existing monitoring activities weredeficient and, where activities were deficient, thepanel developed recommendations for additionalinformation that should be collected.The panel recommended the development and use of anintegrated approach to watershed monitoring, whichdraws on modeling, risk-based planning and analysis,statistical sampling and design, and basic compliancemonitoring. The approach should be designed toprovide an assessment of natural and anthropogenicsources of stress to the system as well as anassessment of water quality trends in response tostresses acting in concert, both over the long termand over the five-year New York City Memorandum ofAgreement (MOA) assessment time frame. It should alsoprovide an assessment of the human health andenvironmental risks posed by a variety of stressors,and the impact of management actions implemented toameliorate stressors.     

The Need for Scale Sensitive Approaches in Spatially Explicit Land Use Change Modeling

This paper introduces some of the issues that are relevant to the spatially explicit modeling of land use systems. A short overview is given of the ways and means in which a number of different land use change models describe the land use system. Specific attention is given to the empirical modeling approach used in the CLUE (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects) modeling framework. This approach is demonstrated for three case studies in China, Ecuador and the Atlantic Zone of Costa Rica. These case-studies illustrate the methodology for multi-scale analysis of land use driving factors and their application in spatially explicit modeling exercises. Model functioning, performance and limitations are discussed. The presented case-studies indicate that empirical modeling results can contribute to a better theoretic imbedding of land use change research in scale sensitive and integrated theories.     

大气固定污染源低浓度颗粒物采样及分析技术研究进展

简述了我国现阶段大气固定污染源颗粒物监测中遇到的问题及低浓度颗粒物采样与分析技术研究的必要性,归纳了国外低浓度颗粒物采样分析技术要点,包括大体积采样、滤筒上游采样设备堆积颗粒物的回收、有效称重步骤的确立等,并对我国开展低浓度颗粒物采样及分析技术研究提出了相关建议.     

Development and Parameterization of a Rain- and Fire-driven Model for Exploring Elephant Effects in African Savannas

We describe the development and parameterization of a grid-based model of African savanna vegetation processes. The model was developed with the objective of exploring elephant effects on the diversity of savanna species and structure, and in this formulation concentrates on the relative cover of grass and woody plants, the vertical structure of the woody plant community, and the distribution of these over space. Grid cells are linked by seed dispersal and fire, and environmental variability is included in the form of stochastic rainfall and fire events. The model was parameterized from an extensive review of the African savanna literature; when available, parameter values varied widely. The most plausible set of parameters produced long-term coexistence between woody plants and grass, with the tree–grass balance being more sensitive to changes in parameters influencing demographic processes and drought incidence and response, while less sensitive to fire regime. There was considerable diversity in the woody structure of savanna systems within the range of uncertainty in tree growth rate parameters. Thus, given the paucity of height growth data regarding woody plant species in southern African savannas, managers of natural areas should be cognizant of different tree species growth and damage response attributes when considering whether to act on perceived elephant threats to vegetation.     

大气压光电离技术及其在环境污染物分析中的应用

介绍了液相色谱-质谱联用(LC-MS)技术中新型软电离技术大气压光电离法(APPI)的基本原理、鼻子源结构以及电离的影响因素,综述了LC-APPI-MS在环境污染物定性定量分析中的应用.     

Heavy metals in bark of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Pinus massoniana</Emphasis> (Lamb.) as an indicator of atmospheric deposition near a smeltery at Qujiang,China

Goal, Scope and Background Rapid urbanization and the expansion of industrial activities in the past several decades have led to large increases in emissions of pollutants in the Pearl River Delta of south China. Recent reports have suggested that industrial emission is a major factor contributing to the damages in current natural ecosystem in the Delta area. Tree barks have been used successfully to monitor the levels of atmospheric metal deposition in many areas, but rarely in China. This study aimed at determining whether atmospheric heavy metal deposition from a Pb-Zn smeltery at Qujiang, Guangdong province, could be accurately reflected both in the inner bark and the outer bark of Masson pine (Pinus massoniana L.). The impact of the emission from smeltery on the soils beneath the trees and the relationships of the concentrations between the soils and the barks were also analyzed. Methods Barks around the bole of Pinus massoniana from a pine forest near a Pb-Zn smeltery at Qujiang and a reference forest at Dinghushan natural reserve were sampled with a stainless knife at an average height of 1.5 m above the ground. Mosses and lichens on the surface barks were cleaned prior to sampling. The samples were carefully divided into the inner bark (living part) and the outer bark (dead part) in the laboratory, and dried and ground, respectively. After being dry-ashed, the powder of the barks was dissolved in HNO₃. The solutions were analyzed for iron (Fe), manganese (Mn), copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), chromium (Cr), nickel (Ni) and cobalt (Co) by inductively coupled plasmas emission spectrometry (ICP, PS-1000AT, USA) and Cadmium (Cd) and lead (Pb) by graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry (GFAAS, ZEENIT 60, Germany). Surface soils (0–10 cm) beneath the sample trees were also collected and analyzed for the selected metals. Results and Discussion Concentrations of the selected metals in soils at Qujiang were far above their environmental background values in the area, except for Fe and Mn, whilst at Dinghushan, they were far below their background values, except for Cd and Co. Levels of the metals, in particular Pb and Zn, in the soils beneath the sample trees at Qujiang were higher than those at Dinghushan with statistical significance. The result suggested that the pine forest soils at Qujiang had a great input of heavy metals from wet and dry atmospheric deposition, with the Pb-Zn smeltery most probably being the source. Levels of Cu, Fe, Mn, Zn, Ni and Pb at Qujiang, both in the inner and the outer bark, were statistically higher than those at Dinghushan. Higher concentrations of Pb, Fe, Zn and Cu may come from the stem-flow of elements leached from the canopy, soil splash on the 1.5 m height and sorption of metals in the mosses and lichens growing on the bark, which were direct or indirect results from the atmospheric deposition. Levels of heavy metals in the outer barks were associated well with the metal concentrations in the soil, reflecting the close relationships between the metal atmospheric deposition and their accumulation in the outer bark of Masson pine. The significant (p<0.01) correlations of Fe-Cu, Fe-Cr, Fe-Pb, Fe-Ni, Pb-Ni, and Pb-Zn in the outer barks at Qujiang again suggested a common source for the metals. The correlation only occurred between Pb and Ni, Cd and Co in the outer barks at Dinghushan, which suggested that those metals must possibly have other uncommon sources. Conclusions Atmospheric deposition of the selected metals was great at Qujiang, based on the levels in the bark of Pinus massoniana and on the concentrations in the soils beneath the trees compared with that at Dinghushan. Bark of Pinus massoniana, especially the outer bark, was an indicator of metal loading at least at the time of sampling. Recommendations and Perspectives The results from this study and the techniques employed constituted a new contribution to the development of biogeochemical methods for environmental monitoring particularly in areas with high frequency of pollution in China. The method would be of value for follow up studies aimed at the assessment of industrial pollution in other areas similar with the Pearl River Delta.     

基于灰建模的瓦斯含量多变量预测模型研究

研究了GM(1,N)、GM(0,N)瓦斯含量预测模型的数学原理,收集郑煤集团告成矿地质勘探期间及生产期间的瓦斯含量实测资料,获得16个可靠点,选取基岩厚度、新生界厚度、煤层厚度、煤层水分、煤层灰分、50m顶板含砂率6个因素作灰色建模预测的指标,分别建立了GM(1,6)和GM(0,6)瓦斯含量多变量预测模型。根据计算和评价结果,GM(1,6)和GM(0,6)瓦斯含量预测模型精度均能够满足工程精度的要求,说明利用灰色模型来预测瓦斯含量是可行的。由于前者精度略高于后者,故建议告成矿采用GM(1,6)模型来进行未知地区煤层瓦斯含量的预测。需要注意,由于模型没有考虑构造的影响,在实际预测时,还应根据构造对待预测区的影响关系和影响程度对模型的预测结果进行修正。     

Assisting Australian indigenous resource management and sustainable utilization of species through the use of GIS and environmental modeling techniques

Information on distribution and relative abundance of species is integral to sustainable management, especially if they are to be harvested for subsistence or commerce. In northern Australia, natural landscapes are vast, centers of population few, access is difficult, and Aboriginal resource centers and communities have limited funds and infrastructure. Consequently defining distribution and relative abundance by comprehensive ground survey is difficult and expensive. This highlights the need for simple, cheap, automated methodologies to predict the distribution of species in use, or having potential for use, in commercial enterprise. The technique applied here uses a Geographic Information System (GIS) to make predictions of probability of occurrence using an inductive modeling technique based on Bayes' theorem. The study area is in the Maningrida region, central Arnhem Land, in the Northern Territory, Australia. The species examined, Cycas arnhemica and Brachychiton diversifolius, are currently being 'wild harvested' in commercial trials, involving sale of decorative plants and use as carving wood, respectively. This study involved limited and relatively simple ground surveys requiring approximately 7 days of effort for each species. The overall model performance was evaluated using Cohen's kappa statistics. The predictive ability of the model for C. arnhemica was classified as moderate and for B. diversifolius as fair. The difference in model performance can be attributed to the pattern of distribution of these species. C. arnhemica tends to occur in a clumped distribution due to relatively short distance dispersal of its large seeds and vegetative growth from long-lived rhizomes, while B. diversifolius seeds are smaller and more widely dispersed across the landscape. The output from analysis predicts trends in species distribution that are consistent with independent on-site sampling for each species and therefore should prove useful in gauging the extent of resource availability. However, some caution needs to be applied as the models tend to over predict presence which is a function of distribution patterns and of other variables operating in the landscape such as fire histories which were not included in the model due to limited availability of data.     

Comparison of models of simazine transport and fate in the subsurface environment in a citrus farm

Contamination of groundwater by agrochemicals is now widely recognized as an extremely important environmental problem. Modern agricultural practices involve the combined use of irrigation with the application of large amounts of agrochemicals to maximize crop yield. Due to flood irrigation and natural runoff, agricultural activities might generate soil, surface water and groundwater contamination problems and leaching of pesticides. Modeling of the transport and fate of pesticides, such as simazine, may help understand the long-term potential risk to the subsurface environment. This paper illustrates a comparative study via the use of three different pesticide transport simulation models and the applicability of those models in determining the groundwater vulnerability to pesticides contamination in a citrus orchard located at the Lower Rio Grande Valley (LRGV). The three models used in the study are the pesticide root zone model-3 (PRZM-3), the pesticide analytical model (PESTAN) and integrated pesticide transport modeling (IPTM). The concentration values obtained from all three models are in agreement, and they show a decreasing trend from the surface through the vadose zone. The problem is how to use this information and, specifically, how to combine the testimony of a number of experts into a single useful judgment. With the aid of the fuzzy multiattribute decision making method, PRZM-3 is deemed as the most promising one for such precision farming applications.     

Kinetic extractions to assess mobilization of Zn, Pb, Cu, and Cd in a metal-contaminated soil: EDTA vs. citrate

Kinetic EDTA and citrate extractions were used to mimic metal mobilization in a soil contaminated by metallurgical fallout. Modeling of metal removal rates vs. time distinguished two metal pools: readily labile (QM1) and less labile (QM2). In citrate extractions, total extractability (QM1+QM2) of Zn and Cd was proportionally higher than for Pb and Cu. Proportions of Pb and Cu extracted with EDTA were three times higher than when using citrate. We observed similar QM1/QM2 ratios for Zn and Cu regardless of the extractant, suggesting comparable binding energies to soil constituents. However, for Pb and Cd, more heterogeneous binding energies were hypothesized to explain different kinetic extraction behaviors. Proportions of citrate-labile metals were found consistent with their short-term, in-situ mobility assessed in the studied soil, i.e., metal amount released in the soil solution or extracted by cultivated plants. Kinetic EDTA extractions were hypothesized to be more predictive for long-term metal migration with depth.