A Streamflow Forecasting Framework using Multiple Climate and Hydrological Models1

Abstract: Water resources planning and management efficacy is subject to capturing inherent uncertainties stemming from climatic and hydrological inputs and models. Streamflow forecasts, critical in reservoir operation and water allocation decision making, fundamentally contain uncertainties arising from assumed initial conditions, model structure, and modeled processes. Accounting for these propagating uncertainties remains a formidable challenge. Recent enhancements in climate forecasting skill and hydrological modeling serve as an impetus for further pursuing models and model combinations capable of delivering improved streamflow forecasts. However, little consideration has been given to methodologies that include coupling both multiple climate and multiple hydrological models, increasing the pool of streamflow forecast ensemble members and accounting for cumulative sources of uncertainty. The framework presented here proposes integration and offline coupling of global climate models (GCMs), multiple regional climate models, and numerous water balance models to improve streamflow forecasting through generation of ensemble forecasts. For demonstration purposes, the framework is imposed on the Jaguaribe basin in northeastern Brazil for a hindcast of 1974‐1996 monthly streamflow. The ECHAM 4.5 and the NCEP/MRF9 GCMs and regional models, including dynamical and statistical models, are integrated with the ABCD and Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure water balance models. Precipitation hindcasts from the GCMs are downscaled via the regional models and fed into the water balance models, producing streamflow hindcasts. Multi‐model ensemble combination techniques include pooling, linear regression weighting, and a kernel density estimator to evaluate streamflow hindcasts; the latter technique exhibits superior skill compared with any single coupled model ensemble hindcast.     

Whither La Plata? Assessing the state of transboundary water resource cooperation in the basin

In many ways, current treaty arrangements for cooperation over shared water resources among Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay — the five riparian states in South America's La Plata basin — have been relatively successful. These arrangements, mostly bilateral and trilateral partial coalition agreements and institutions that operate under the aegis of the 1969 La Plata River Treaty, have led to significant economic gains from the treaty arrangements for all five riparian states. But these economic gains have also generated significant externalities — particularly, severe environmental degradation — suggesting that alternate cooperative arrangements may be more optimal. Current work suggests that grand coalitions following principles of Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) may provide the most efficient means of distributing the benefits and costs of water resource cooperation equitably across riparian states. Using a theoretical framework developed by Just and Netanyahu (1998 ), we find that the arrangement of partial coalitions that exists in the La Plata Basin is preferable to a grand coalition because of its higher degree of stability. Finally, given the ways in which these partial coalitions are beginning to incorporate IWRM techniques, gaining experience and international recognition, we consider whether it is likely that partial coalitions will lead to a grand coalition in the foreseeable future.      

Evaluation of the possible adverse effects of legacy persistent organic pollutants (POPs) on the brown booby (Sula leucogaster) along the Brazilian coast

This study aimed to investigate the impact of contamination by persistent organic pollutants (POPs) on Brazilian wildlife. The concentrations of certain POPs, including dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), in the eggs of the brown booby (Sula leucogaster) were measured. The eggs were collected from breeding colonies located on three archipelagos (Saint Peter and Saint Paul, Abrolhos and Cagarras Islands) in the Atlantic Ocean, which are located at different distances from the Brazilian coast (range 4-1010 km). In addition, possible alterations in eggshell characteristics were evaluated. The average values of POPs found in eggs from the archipelago of Saint Peter and Saint Paul (0.05 μg g⁻¹ of ΣPCBs and 0.01 μg g⁻¹ of ΣDDT) and the archipelago of Abrolhos (0.19 μg g⁻¹ of ΣPCBs and 0.03 μg g⁻¹ of ΣDDT) were low compared to the reference values reported in the literature. In contrast, the concentrations measured in eggs from Cagarras (8.4 μg g⁻¹ of ΣPCBs and 1.8 μg g⁻¹ of ΣDDT) were the highest, and this total PCB level is close to the threshold values considered to be harmful to birds. Our findings indicate that the brown booby colony closest to the Rio de Janeiro coast has recently been exposed to DDT. Despite the high pollution levels found on the Cagarras Islands, no alterations in the eggshell weight or the thickness of the analyzed eggs were detected. Hence, more detailed studies are recommended to determine the actual effects of the selected POPs on the Cagarras breeding colony.     

Unexplored Diversity and Conservation Potential of Neotropical Hot Caves

The term hot cave is used to describe some subterranean chambers in the Neotropics that are characterized by constantly high ambient temperatures generated by the body heat of high densities of certain bat species. Many of these species have limited geographic ranges, and some occur only in the hot‐cave environment. In addition to the bats, the stable microclimate and abundant bat guano provides refuge and food for a high diversity of invertebrates. Hot caves have so far been described in the Caribbean and in a few isolated locations from Mexico to Brazil, although there is some evidence that similar caves may be present throughout the tropics. The existing literature suggests these poorly known ecosystems, with their unique combination of geomorphology and bat‐generated microclimate, are particularly sensitive to disturbance and face multiple threats from urbanization, agricultural development, mining, and tourism. Diversidad No Explorada y Potencial de Conservación de Cuevas Neotropicales Calientes     

关于温室气体限排目标的确定（巴西提案）

巴西提案是巴西代表团在联合团气候变化谈判中，提出的一套系统的全新的对中国家有利的理论体系，文章在对巴西提案中的有效排放量、简单气候模式、斐和限额分配方法、消沽发展基金等，进行深入睥评价的基础上，提出应将有效排放量与人均排放量与有机结合， 交圾效人均排放量曙室气体限排目标的指标。     

The stone forum: Implementing a consensus building methodology to address impacts associated with small mining and quarry operations

Small-scale mining, including quarry operations, continues to play an important social and economic role in hundreds of communities throughout Brazil. Often operating outside the formal economy, conflicts between the owners of small-scale mining operations, the mineworkers, various government agencies, and other stakeholders have contributed to the progressive degradation of the environment, poor health and safety standards, and low productivity. The Centre for Mineral Technology (CETEM) of Brazil is implementing a consensus building methodology in order to produce dimension stone by small-scale miners on a more sustainable basis in the Pádua region, located in the northwest of the State of Rio de Janeiro. The approach being used by CETEM is based on its own experience in working with gold prospectors in the Amazon, and lessons and experiences learned from Canadian officials and industry representatives. The lessons and insights gained from this project may prove to be useful to those involved in addressing similar problems elsewhere in Brazil, South America and around the world.     

Brazil's Balbina Dam: Environment versus the legacy of the Pharaohs in Amazonia

The Balbina Dam in Brazil's state of Amazonas floods 2360 km² of tropical forest to generate an average of only 112.2 MW of electricity. The flat topography and small size of the drainage basin make output small. Vegetation has been left to decompose in the reservoir, resulting in acidic, anoxic water that will corrode the turbines. The shallow reservoir contains 1500 islands and innumerable stagnant bays where the water's residence time will be even longer than the average time of over one year. Balbina was built to supply electricity to Manaus, a city that has grown so much while the dam was under construction that other alternatives are already needed. Government subsidies explain the explosive growth, including Brazil's unified tariff for electricity. Alternative power sources for Manaus include transmission from more distant dams or from recently discovered oil and natural gas deposits. Among Balbina's impacts are loss of potential use of the forest and displacement of about one third of the surviving members of a much-persecuted Amerindian tribe: the Waimiri-Atroari. The dam was closed on 1 October 1987 and the first of five generators began operation in February 1989. The example of Balbina points to important ways that the decision-making process could be improved in Brazil and in the international funding agencies that have directly and indirectly contributed to the project. Environmental impact analyses must be completed prior to decisions on overall project implementation and must be free of influence from project proponents. The current environmental impact assessment system in Brazil, as in many other countries, has an undesirable influence on science policy, in addition to failing to address the underlying causes of environmentally destructive development processes and inability to halt irreversible projects like Balbina.     

Evaluating the Brazilian zero tolerance drinking and driving law: Time series analyses of traffic-related mortality in three major cities

Objective: A zero tolerance alcohol restriction law was adopted in Brazil in 2008. In order to assess the effectiveness of this intervention, the present study compares specific mortality in 2 time series: 1980–2007 and 2008–2013.

Methods: Data on mortality and population were gathered from official Brazilian Ministry of Health information systems. Segmented regression analyses were carried out separately for 3 major Brazilian capitals: Belo Horizonte, Rio de Janeiro, and São Paulo.

Results: In 2 cities (Belo Horizonte and Rio de Janeiro) there were no significant changes in mortality rate trends in 2 periods, 1980 to 2007 and 2008 to 2013, where the observed rates did not differ significantly from predicted rates. In São Paulo, a decreasing trend until 2007 unexpectedly assumed higher levels after implementation of the law.

Conclusion: There is no evidence of reduced traffic-related mortality in the 3 major Brazilian capitals 5.5 years after the zero tolerance drinking and driving law was adopted.     

Social contrasts and land use conflicts in the context of sustainable development and management needs: a case study from an estuarine area at northeastern Brazil

This paper discusses the misuses of estuaries in Northeast of Brazil and the social contrasts there found. The several kinds of impacts promoted by capitalist enterprises in one side and by traditional population, who uses estuary areas at another side, are in complete disagreement with the ethic of sustainable development. Our intention is to demonstrate how these aspects occur in the River Paraíba do Norte estuary, in the State of Paraíba. Observing the conditions of infrastructure besides the multiple ways to handle along with the extension of the estuary, we could recognize 59 focus of conflict between the incorrect use and sustainable mode. Most of the uses concern to traditional artisan fishing, slums and recreational marinas, reflecting the great social contrast between rich and poor people settled in area studied. Ecological and social implications of these conflicting uses are discussed and measures to improve the situation are suggested.     

Analysis of energy security and sustainability in future low carbon scenarios for Brazil

This study estimated a series of indicators to assess the energy security of supply and global and local environmental impacts under different mitigation scenarios through 2050 in Brazil, designed with the integrated optimization energy system model MESSAGE‐BRAZIL. The assessment of interactions between environmental impacts and energy security dimensions was complemented through the application of life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology. Overall results imply energy security establishes more synergies than trade‐offs in increasingly stringent mitigation scenarios, especially patent within the sustainability dimension, which increases energy security and provides additional benefits regarding climate change mitigation and air pollution emissions. It is still necessary to extend analysis to other energy sectors in addition to the power supply sector and to promote a better understanding of repercussions of energy scenario expansion in energy security.