青藏高原人口、资源、环境与发展互动关系探讨

青藏高原是我国西部地区的特殊地理区域 ,高原人口、资源、环境与经济是否相互协调 ,关系到我国、西部及整个高原的经济社会的持续、健康发展。论文简要分析了可持续发展的概念及其意义 ,认为可持续发展模式是青藏高原现实与未来的必然选择。从高原人口、资源、环境、经济等互动关系的定量分析着手 ,提出人口增长较快、素质不高是高原可持续发展所面临的基础性障碍 ;资源较为富裕 ,但人口对资源压力逐步增大 ,是制约高原持续发展的潜在威胁 ;人口与资源、经济匹配不当 ,承载力相对不足 ,构成高原持续发展的巨大负担 ;不合理开发利用资源 ,严重威胁着脆弱的环境和生态系统 ,是高原持续发展的潜伏危机 ;最后指出适度控制人口 ,合理开发利用资源 ,优化经济结构 ,保护生态环境 ,是实现高原可持续发展的根本措施。     

Detection of the toughest: Pedestrian injury risk as a smooth function of age

Objective: Though it is common to refer to age-specific groups (e.g., children, adults, elderly), smooth trends conditional on age are mainly ignored in the literature. The present study examines the pedestrian injury risk in full-frontal pedestrian-to–passenger car accidents and incorporates age—in addition to collision speed and injury severity—as a plug-in parameter.

Methods: Recent work introduced a model for pedestrian injury risk functions using explicit formulae with easily interpretable model parameters. This model is expanded by pedestrian age as another model parameter. Using the German In-Depth Accident Study (GIDAS) to obtain age-specific risk proportions, the model parameters are fitted to the raw data and then smoothed by broken-line regression.

Results: The approach supplies explicit probabilities for pedestrian injury risk conditional on pedestrian age, collision speed, and injury severity under investigation. All results yield consistency to each other in the sense that risks for more severe injuries are less probable than those for less severe injuries. As a side product, the approach indicates specific ages at which the risk behavior fundamentally changes. These threshold values can be interpreted as the most robust ages for pedestrians.

Conclusions: The obtained age-wise risk functions can be aggregated and adapted to any population. The presented approach is formulated in such general terms that in can be directly used for other data sets or additional parameters; for example, the pedestrian's sex. Thus far, no other study using age as a plug-in parameter can be found.     

The role of drug and alcohol use and the risk of motor vehicle crashes in Shiraz,Iran, 2014: A case–crossover study

Background: Traffic accidents and traffic-related injuries and mortality have become a major public health concern in Iran. This study aimed to examine the role of drug and alcohol use in motor vehicle accidents in Iran.

Methods: This case–crossover study was conducted on 441 drivers who survived a road traffic crash and were taken to the emergency department of Shahid Rajaee trauma hospital in Shiraz, southern Iran. Data were collected using checklists that included demographic characteristics and drug and alcohol use prior to driving. Alcohol and drug use was identified through self-report, and cannabis, morphine, and methamphetamine urine tests were used to confirm drug abuse among drivers.

Results: In total 17.9% of drivers reported using drugs (cannabis, opium, or metamphetamine) and 8.84% of drivers reported consuming alcohol prior to the collision. The crude odds ratios (ORs) for having a crash for opium, cannabis, and metamphetamine were 1.94 (95% interval confidence [CI], 1.11–3.38), 2.37 (95% CI, 1.03–5.42), 5.5 (95% CI, 1.21–24.81), respectively, and for all drugs was 3.83 (95% CI, 2.28–6.43). The OR for alcohol was 3.5 (95% CI, 1.73–7.06) based on self-report.

Conclusion: Drug and alcohol use are increasing the risk of traffic crashes in Iran. Risk-reducing programs must be designed and implemented.     

含硫苯衍生物对发光细菌的毒性效应及其定量结构活性相关分析

利用发光细菌法测定了29种氯取代和硝基取代的苯硫(砜、亚砜)基乙酸酯的毒性,通过定量结构活性相关(QSAR)分析发现:此类化合物的毒性主要与其取代基的电荷效应相关,电荷的区域分布对化合物的毒性效应有重要影响.推测该化台物的毒性机理是毒物分子与发光反应中的主要辅酶FMNH_2形成了氢键.还发现:在这类链状毒物分子中,远离活性中心一端的基团具有脱毒作用.     

The importance of spatial autocorrelation,extent and resolution in predicting forest bird occurrence

Concerns about declines in forest biodiversity underscore the need for accurate estimates of the distribution and abundance of organisms at large scales and at resolutions that are fine enough to be appropriate for management. This paper addresses three major objectives: (i) to determine whether the resolution of typical air photo-derived forest inventory is sufficient for the accurate prediction of site occupancy by forest birds. We compared prediction success of habitat models using air photo variables to models with variables derived from finer resolution, ground-sampled vegetation plots. (ii) To test whether incorporating spatial autocorrelation into habitat models via autologistic regression increases prediction success. (iii) To determine whether landscape structure is an important factor in predicting bird distribution in forest-dominated landscapes. Models were tested locally (Greater Fundy Ecosystem [GFE]) using cross-validation, and regionally using an independent data set from an area located ca. 250 km to the northwest (Riley Brook [RB]). We found significant positive spatial autocorrelation in the residuals of at least one habitat model for 76% (16/21) of species examined. In these cases, the logistic regression assumption of spatially independent errors was violated. Logistic models that ignored spatial autocorrelation tended to overestimate habitat effects. Though overall prediction success was higher for autologistic models than logistic models in the GFE, the difference was only significantly improved for one species. Further, the inclusion of spatial covariates did little to improve model performance in the geographically discrete study area. For 62% (13/21) of species examined, landscape variables were significant predictors of forest bird occurrence even after statistically controlling for stand-level variability. However, broad spatial extents explained less variation than local factors. In the GFE, 76% (16/21) of air photo and 81% (17/21) of ground plot models were accurate enough to be of practical utility (AUC > 0.7). When applied to RB, both model types performed effectively for 55% (11/20) of the species examined. We did not detect an overall difference in prediction success between air photo and ground plot models in either study area. We conclude that air photo data are as effective as fine resolution vegetation data for predicting site occupancy for the majority of species in this study. These models will be of use to forest managers who are interested in mapping species distributions under various timber harvest scenarios, and to protected areas planners attempting to optimize reserve function.     

部分硝基芳烃对鲤鱼的急性毒性及定量构效关系

本文报告了２６个硝基芳烃大对鲤鱼的急性毒性，应用ＬＳＥＲ法得出了相关关系显著的ＱＳＡＲ方程。化合物分子的本征体积是毒性的主要影响因素。硝基芳烃的毒性随着分子本征体积，αｍ和Ｉ值的增大而增大，随着βｍ值的增大而减小。     

The siting puzzle: Balancing economic and environmental gains and losses

Traditional approaches to the siting of potentially hazardous but regionally necessary facilities are often ineffective and lead to drawn-out legal disputes ultimately satisfactory to none of the parties. Research at MIT over the last decade has indicated five factors that may solve the siting puzzle. Application of these principles do not guarantee that a decision will not be disputed but may enhance the possibility of a wise and durable agreement.     

An empirical bayes safety evaluation of tram/streetcar signal and lane priority measures in Melbourne

Objective: Streetcars/tram systems are growing worldwide, and many are given priority to increase speed and reliability performance in mixed traffic conditions. Research related to the road safety impact of tram priority is limited. This study explores the road safety impacts of tram priority measures including lane and intersection/signal priority measures.

Method: A before–after crash study was conducted using the empirical Bayes (EB) method to provide more accurate crash impact estimates by accounting for wider crash trends and regression to the mean effects. Before–after crash data for 29 intersections with tram signal priority and 23 arterials with tram lane priority in Melbourne, Australia, were analyzed to evaluate the road safety impact of tram priority.

Results: The EB before–after analysis results indicated a statistically significant adjusted crash reduction rate of 16.4% after implementation of tram priority measures. Signal priority measures were found to reduce crashes by 13.9% and lane priority by 19.4%. A disaggregate level simple before–after analysis indicated reductions in total and serious crashes as well as vehicle-, pedestrian-, and motorcycle-involved crashes. In addition, reductions in on-path crashes, pedestrian-involved crashes, and collisions among vehicles moving in the same and opposite directions and all other specific crash types were found after tram priority implementation.

Conclusions: Results suggest that streetcar/tram priority measures result in safety benefits for all road users, including vehicles, pedestrians, and cyclists. Policy implications and areas for future research are discussed.     

Assessment practices in the policy and politics cycles: a contribution to reflexive governance for sustainable development?

ABSTRACT

This article examines systematic assessment practices linked to sustainable development policies. We consider five types of assessment—monitoring, policy evaluation, formal audit, peer review, and specialist reporting—and explore their fate in the policy and electoral politics cycles. In contrast to traditional views of the policy cycle, we note that systematic assessments provide complementary feedback around the entire policy cycle. However, despite this omnipresence, their policy relevance is usually severely limited, inter alia because the policy cycle captures only parts of the political reality. A major concern for politicians (but not necessarily for policy or governance scholars) that goes far beyond the formulation and implementation of policies is the broader cycle of electoral politics that determines the state's political personnel as well as government priorities. Here, we highlight that the findings of systematic assessments are often lost in a cacophony of voices to which politicians are more carefully attuned, such as media responses and opinion polls, implying that scientific evidence is simply ‘overwritten’ with other kinds of evidence representing alternative rationalities and priorities. Despite numerous shortcomings, the true value of systematic assessment practices lies in their potential to furnish ammunition to state and non-state actors interested in securing change.