基于层次分析法的中原经济区流域水系统健康评价

为了在水资源与水环境双重制约下制订人水和谐发展的政策提供决策支持,以我国中原经济区这一重点开发区域为例,基于层次分析法构建了以水系统自然条件、水系统服务功能及人类活动影响三要素(共计20项指标)为基础的流域水系统健康评价体系,并以2011年作为评价年,将中原经济区的水资源二级区作为基本流域单元对水系统健康状况进行评价. 结果表明:中原经济区9个水资源二级区中,除了淮河上游水资源二级区(3.20分,完全健康状态为5.00分)为基本健康状态、汉江水资源二级区(2.77分)和三门峡至花园口水资源二级区(2.18分)为亚健康状态以外,其余水资源二级区(0.55~1.77分)均为不健康及极不健康状态. 分析显示,人类活动影响是影响中原经济区内各流域水系统健康状况的主要原因,人口众多、工农业开发活动强度大使得其对水资源需求巨大. 部分水资源二级区对地下水资源依赖程度较高,造成不同程度的地下水超采现象. 伴随着高强度水资源利用的是水污染物的高强度排放,部分河流水污染状况严重,甚至在局部地区造成了地下水污染. 这种不健康的状态在中原经济区内由南向北随着水系统自然条件和水系统服务功能的降低呈加重趋势.      

Water Resources of Central Asia and Adaptation Measures for Climate Change

A large part of the Central Asian region is located within the inner flow of the Aral Sea basin. The water resources are formed from renewed superficial and underground waters of natural origin, and also with returnable waters. The intensive increase of water intake, that took place in the second half of the twentieth century caused practically complete assimilation of the river inflow. That was the main reason for the Aral Sea crisis. On the basis of the analysis of long periodical rows of observation by meterological and hydrological stations, the estimation of regional water resources and calculations of changes of some components of the hydrological cycle due to the expected climate changes are presented. Measures for adaptation in the southern part of the Aral Sea region are considered.     

Landslide Vulnerability Criteria: A Case Study from Umbria,Central Italy

Little is known about the vulnerability to landslides, despite landslides causing frequent and widespread damage to the population and the built-up environment in many areas of the world. Lack of information about vulnerability to landslides limits our ability to determine landslide risk. This paper provides information on the vulnerability of buildings and roads to landslides in Umbria, central Italy. Information on 103 landslides of the slide and slide-earth flow types that have resulted in damage to buildings and roads at 90 sites in Umbria is used to establish dependencies between the area of the landslide and the vulnerability to landslides. The dependencies obtained are applied in the hills surrounding the town of Collazzone, in central Umbria, an area for which a detailed landslide inventory map is available. By exploiting the landslide inventory and the established vulnerability curves, the geographical distribution of the vulnerability to landslides is mapped and statistics of the expected damage are calculated. Reliability and limits of the vulnerability thresholds and of the obtained vulnerability assessment are discussed.     

Analyzing the carbon dynamics of central European forests: comparison of Biome-BGC simulations with measurements

Biogeochemical models are often used for making projections of future carbon dynamics under scenarios of global change. The aim of this study was to assess the accuracy of the process-based biogeochemical model Biome-BGC for application in central European forests from the lowlands to upper treeline as a pre-requisite for environmental impact assessments. We analyzed model behavior along an altitudinal gradient across the alpine treeline, which provided insights on the sensitivity of simulated average carbon pools to changes in environmental factors. A second set of tests included medium-term (30 years) simulations of carbon fluxes, and a third set of tests focused on daily carbon and water fluxes. Model results were compared to aboveground biomass measurements, leaf area index recordings as well as net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and actual evapotranspiration (AET) measurements. The simulated medium-term forest growth agreed well with measured data. Also daily NEE fluxes were simulated adequately in most cases. Problems were detected when simulating ecosystems close to the upper timberline (overestimation of measured growth and pool sizes), and when simulating daily AET fluxes (overestimation of measured fluxes). The results showed that future applications of Biome-BGC could benefit much from an improvement of model algorithms (e.g., the Q₁₀ model for respiration) as well as from a detailed analysis of the ecological significance of crucial parameters (e.g., the canopy water interception coefficient).     

中国东中西部经济带的水环境库兹涅茨假说实证及其影响因素研究

“八五”至“十二五”期间,中国取得巨大的经济成果的同时带来了严重的水环境污染问题.文章分析了东中西部三大经济带经济发展及COD和氨氮两种主要水污染排放的差异,及其与经济发展的关系进行了EKC假说的实证研究.研究结果表明,部分污染物的拟合曲线尚处于上升阶段,未能出现典型的倒U型曲线,可能导致水环境质量恶化.环境基础设施建设、人口分布和产业结构等因素与COD和氨氮的排放量密切相关,因此,中国必须采取各种环境管理和技术手段,促使区域水污染物排放量指标与经济发展的拟合曲线出现转折点,改善水环境质量.     

Willingness to pay to improve domestic water supply in rural areas of Central Tanzania: Implications for policy

This analysis estimates willingness to pay to improve community-based rural water utilities in the Dodoma and Singida Regions of Central Tanzania, using Multinomial Logit functions. An estimate of willingness to pay provides an indication of the demand for improved services and potential for them being sustainable. Surveys were conducted in a total of 30 villages in the two regions. In the Dodoma Region, about 14% of respondents indicated that they were satisfied with the status quo, 64% suggested increasing water discharge and watering points, and 22% proposed other improvements relating to water quality. In the Singida Region, 31% of the respondents were satisfied with the status quo, 59% wanted deeper boreholes and watering points, and 10% indicated other types of improvement relating to water quality. The Multinomial Logit functions indicated that the interaction between the water quality variable and proposed bids were important in making choices with reference to the type of improvement desired. Respondents who wanted to increase water supply in Dodoma Region were willing to pay 32 Tsh above the existing tariff of 20 Tsh/bucket. In the Singida Region, the analogous amount was 91 Tsh per household per year above the existing user fee of 508 Tsh per household per year. If the tariff or user fees have to be increased, the estimated average potential revenue for the surveyed villages was 252 million Tsh/year (US$265 263) in the Dodoma Region, and 5.2 million Tsh/year (US$5474) in the Singida Region. In the future, strategic planning is needed to ensure that improvements proposed potentially improve cost recovery initiatives and increase the level of consumer satisfaction. Also, care will be needed to ensure that more disadvantaged community members do not suffer unduly from increases in tariff or user fees.     

CLIMATOLOGICAL WATERSHED CALIBRATION1

ABSTRACT: This study tests the hypothesis that climatic data can be used to develop a watershed model so that stream flow changes following forest harvest can be determined. Measured independent variables were precipitation, daily maximum and minimum temperature, and concurrent relative humidity. Computed variables were humidity deficit, saturated vapor pressure, and ambient vapor pressure. These climatic variables were combined to compute a monthly evaporation index. Finally, the evaporation index and monthly precipitation were regressed with measured monthly stream flow and the monthly estimates of stream flow were combined for the hydrologic year. A regression of predicted versus measured annual stream flow had a standard error of 1.5 inches (within 6.1 percent of the measured value). When 10, 15, and 20 years of data were used to develop the regression equations, predicted minus measured stream flow for the last 7 years of record (1972–1978) were within 16.8, 11.5, and 9.7 percent of the measured mean, respectively. Although single watershed calibration can be used in special conditions, the paired watershed approach is expected to remain the preferred method for determining the effects of forest management on the water resource.     

The Management of a Large Mediterranean Reservoir: Storage Regimens of the Yesa Reservoir,Upper Aragon River Basin,Central Spanish Pyrenees

Agriculture in Mediterranean countries is mainly based upon the irrigation of productive areas in the lowlands. For this reason, it is necessary to store large volumes of water in reservoirs located in mountain headwaters. These reservoirs have a relatively simple regimen of storage, increasing the water stored during the wet season (from October until May) and reaching the maximum volume shortly before the beginning of the hot, very dry season, when the water is released. This paper considers the storage regimen (inflow and outflow) of the Yesa Reservoir in the Spanish Pyrenees as an example of management of a large reservoir in a mountain Mediterranean environment, subject to a strong interannual variability. On average, the highest water storage level is achieved by retaining the high flows of the Aragón River in autumn and spring. Nevertheless, the irregularity of rainfalls and the existence of changes in the hydrological regimen lead to changes in the patterns of reservoir filling. Two patterns were identified in the Yesa Reservoir: (1) a quick increase of the stored volume in autumn, a stabilization in winter, and a new increase in spring; and (2) a continuous increase from October until May. These patterns are distributed in time over different periods since the construction of the reservoir in 1959, demonstrating the adjustment of the reservoir management to changes in the hydrological regimen.     

Economics of an ecotourism operation in Belize

The economic inputs and outputs for the Possum Point Biological Station in Belize during 1990–1992 are described to illustrate some aspects of an ecotourism operation. Eight hundred fifty-four people in 59 groups visited Possum Point during the study period to tour rain forests, estuaries, and coral reefs. The economic input to Possum Point from these groups increased from $74,552 in 1990 to $166,268 in 1992. Outputs were for license fees, capital improvements, goods and services, labor, fossil fuels, and development of a historic sugar mill site. An annual donation was also made to a scholarship fund for local Belizean students. The net cash balance of income and outputs changed from negative (−$6678) in 1990 to positive (+$4811) in 1992, suggesting development of the economic operation. Possum Point meets the economic criteria for ecotourism by feeding back some tourist monies for community and environmental support, particularly donations for the sugar mill site and the scholarship fund. Most of the outputs from Possum Point (about 80%) were retained in the local economy through employment and purchases, which have a positive influence on the local community. We conclude that ecotourism operations, such as Possum Point, offer important sustainable development opportunities for Belize.