基于信息源信任度的PM2.5健康风险认知研究

运用心理测量范式调查北京和南昌居民对PM2.5信息发布源的信任度以及健康风险认知,结果表明,居民信息源信任度仅为一般水平,专家和非政府组织信任度较高,政府信任度较低,北京居民信任度低于南昌居民,风险认知高于南昌居民.基于结构方程模型,构建风险认知影响机理模型,分析表明信任度对风险认知有显著影响,北京和南昌影响系数分别为0.244、0.183;个体特征能直接或通过信任度间接影响风险认知,北京和南昌总影响系数分别为0.222、0.214,其中个体基础信息(年龄、月收入、职业)、健康状况(儿童和老人数、自身健康状况、曾或正患呼吸疾病或心肺疾病)、居住位置与工作方式均对信任度和风险认知有显著影响.     

Climate change implications for disaster risk management in Japan: A case study on perceptions of risk management personnel and communities in Saijo city

This paper reviews climate change impacts and the existing disaster risk management system in Japan and offers the results of a structured questionnaire survey of the community leaders and disaster risk management personnel of Saijo city of Japan that assesses their perceptions about dealing with the extreme disasters by the existing disaster risk management systems. This study was inspired by the record number of typhoon landfall that has surprised the local government and communities in 2004. While unearthing the hidden vulnerabilities in cities like Saijo, this event has loosened the confidence of local communities on the disaster risk management systems. From the study, we conclude that the existing disaster risk management systems need further fillip and that the proactive community involvement in disaster risk management is still in nascent stages. Associating with the scientific community, involving the local communities (including the elderly), enhancing the redundancy in disaster risk management systems, inculcating strategic thinking and micro-level planning, conducting vulnerability assessments by considering the special circumstances including resource constraints of small cities and better policy coordination across the administrative hierarchy are some important considerations for dealing with the uncertainty brought by the extreme events.     

冰雪道路环境对驾驶人视觉感知特性的影响

为预防冰雪道路环境中驾驶人因视觉感知错误引发交通事故,研究了冰雪道路环境对驾驶人视觉感知特性的影响,选择8名熟练驾驶人作为试验样本,且每2人一组,采用跟车调查的方法采集驾驶人对于自身感知车速和前导车车距的视觉感知信息,并利用非接触车速仪检测2辆跟驰行驶试验车的实际车速与车距,对冰雪条件与非冰雪条件下驾驶人的视觉感知信息进行分析对比。研究结果表明,在冰雪环境中驾驶人视觉感知车速比非冰雪环境中低5%～14%;但当2辆跟驰车辆前后车间距在50 m内时,驾驶人在冰雪环境与在非冰雪环境中行驶时,其视觉感知的车距无显著性差异。     

基于知信行理论的驾驶人风险行为研究

为研究影响驾驶人风险行为的内在机制,基于知信行(KAP)理论,引入个性特质变量,从社会心理学的角度对驾驶人风险行为进行研究。通过问卷调查方法、探索性因素分析及验证性因素分析,探讨驾驶人风险认知、风险态度及人格特质对驾驶人风险行为的影响,构建驾驶人风险行为模型。结果表明:风险认知、风险态度对风险行为显著正相关,感觉寻求人格特质能直接影响驾驶人的风险行为,也能通过风险认知和风险态度的中介作用对风险行为产生影响。校正驾驶人对风险的认知与态度能够干预并改变驾驶人的风险行为。     

化工企业事故决策者风险感知模拟预测研究

为研究化工园区突发事故情景下,企业决策者的风险感知变化情况,基于系统动 力学系统论、信息论、结构论、控制论、协同论等特点,探索风险感知变化的实际影响 因素体系,并结合vensim软件构建企业决策者的风险感知因果关系图和系统流图,定量 评判、预测、计算和修正各影响因素之间的逻辑关系,建立量化表达函数并模拟,以此 获得各状态变量间的变化情况。对比敏感度分析结果表明:风险感知、风险观念以及风 险行为决策影响因素的正负相关性各有不同,且相互影响。     

居民旅游影响感知态度及其动力因子研究——以周庄为例

旅游发展对旅游地居民生活产生经济、社会文化、环境等方面的影响。首先分析了居民对旅游影响和旅游发展的感知态度,发现居民对旅游影响的正面感知较强烈,对旅游发展也持理性支持的态度,其中居民对环境影响的正面感知最为强烈。结合居民态度随旅游发展而发生相应变化的相关理论与周庄现阶段旅游发展特征,对居民感知态度的动力因子进行了探讨。     

How to get there? Assessing motorists’ flash flood risk perception on daily itineraries

Flash floods are characterized by their suddenness, fast and violent movement, rarity, small scale but high level of damage. They are particularly difficult to forecast accurately and there is little lead time for warning. This makes motorists especially vulnerable. Assuming that these flash flood hazard specificities may be the significant factors leading to difficulties for drivers to perceive danger, we used cognitive mapping combined with GIS data processing to assess motorists’ flash flood risk perception on their daily itineraries. The analysis of 200 mental maps collected allows planners to have maps highlighting dangerous areas where risk perception is weak and to identify reasons for this.     

旅游者环境质量感知的时空偏差

环境质量评价研究多为客观、专业化评价,较少从常人角度测量居民或游客对环境质量的评价或感知。而常人的评价可能影响其环境行为,进而促进环境保护。通过调查北京、上海、海南三地游客对居住地、旅游目的地、全国三个空间尺度以及当前、未来两个时间尺度的环境质量感知,分析旅游者环境质量感知的时空偏差。研究发现：（1）受访旅游者当前环境质量感知与全国相比存在乐观偏差,即“空间乐观”;与旅游目的地相比却是悲观倾向,即认为居住地环境质量不如旅游目的地;未来环境质量感知存在明显的乐观倾向,即“时间乐观”。（2）各省市旅游者对当前环境质量感知存在差异,与客观环境质量评价（EQI值）对比,安徽等8个省份的旅游者相对乐观,北京等7个省市旅游者则相对悲观;各省市旅游者未来环境质量感知的乐观偏差程度也存在差异。     

A comparative assessment of land management approaches in Bhutan

Arable land in Bhutan is under serious threats of land degradation. Proper land management approach is needed to control soil erosion problems. This study is an attempt to characterize and document the conventional and the community-based land management approaches, applied in Chukha and Dagana districts, respectively. The study tried to make a comparative assessment of their social, economic and environmental impacts on the participating farmers. Farmers’ level of participation in the program, implementation of the soil erosion control measures (SECM) and subsequent social, economic and environmental impacts were found to be significantly influenced by the type of approach applied. The study found that community-based approach is by any means better suited for the study sites than the conventional approach. The social, economic and environmental attributes of respondents from the community-based approach were found to have improved significantly as compared to the conventional approach. The community-based approach was thus found to have a higher potential to meet the diverse requirements of rural subsistence farming communities in Bhutan than the conventional approach.