劳动力外流与农村公共事务治理

新世纪以来,伴随着劳动力的大规模外流,农村公共事务治理呈现出集体经济困难、人居环境恶化和农田水利废弛等各个方面全面衰败的景象。灌溉作为农村典型的公共事务,对于从微观层面揭示劳动力大规模外流与农村公共事务治理衰败之间的因果关系具有代表性意义。关于劳动力流动对农村公共事务治理的影响,在已有的实证研究文献中鲜有讨论。本文基于2014年清华大学中国农村研究院对全国21个省份的调查数据,建立二元logistic回归模型,对1 507个农户的灌溉行为进行计量分析,发现农户家庭劳动力外流对农户参与集体灌溉具有显著的负面影响。这表明,在快速城镇化的过程中,劳动力外流为经济增长做出贡献的同时,也弱化了农村集体行动能力,对农村公共事务治理产生了显著负面影响。同时,计量结果表明:平原地区、水资源自然条件一般的村庄、耕地位于灌渠的中游、农户的承包地经营面积较大、农户的承包地块数较多、灌溉对农户家庭收入的重要性较大以及村庄对私自挖渠取水有惩罚措施等变量对农户参与集体灌溉有显著的正面影响;村庄位于城市郊区、地区经济发展水平较高和灌溉缺水历史等变量对农户参与集体灌溉有显著的负面影响;用水户协会的有无对农户是否参与集体灌溉没有显著的影响,原因是中国农村大多数用水户协会是行政力量推动下的产物,实际作用并不明显。上述结果表明:近20年来的大规模劳动力流动为中国经济高速增长做出贡献的同时,给农村公共事务的治理带来显著的不利影响。研究大规模劳动力流动背景下的农村公共事务挑战及其应对,具有重要的理论价值和实践意义,应作为未来重要的学术方向。由于农村劳动力外流是难以逆转的发展趋势,如何培育新的历史条件下的合作资源,实现农村社会有效的集体行动机制,是未来扭转农村公共事务治理衰败的关键。     

通过改进节点性能确保火灾下钢框架结构的鲁棒性(英文)

介绍了钢框架结构火灾下鲁棒性的背景知识,建议对于非常重要的建筑结构,抗火安全设计必须包括通常设计中尚未考虑到的意外破坏模式。文章辨识了结构意外破坏的不同模式,并提出了保证结构安全性的可行方法。本文主要介绍了如何利用梁的悬链线效应,使荷栽从受损结构重新分配到相邻结构,该效应是梁受弯承载力状态的一种转变。为确保钢梁中悬链线效应的充分发展,最重要的是要保证节点具有足够的抗拉承栽力与转动能力。本文提出了一种节点转动能力需求的量纲分析方法,并根据一些试验结果,介绍了英国常用的梁柱节点可到达的转动能力。虽然一些延性较好的节点在升温时能够达到10°的转动能力,但当钢的温度非常高时,其仍不能满足使悬链线效应充分形成时所需要的转动能力(>15°)。随后,讨论了如何提高节点的转动能力,包括:采用具有较好延性的节点(例如开反向槽口的节点),改进节点的细部构造(如将节点的受拉区移近至受压区,并为螺栓开槽型孔)和采用更强的、延性更好的由耐火钢制成的螺栓。这些提出的节点技术需要与节点在其他设计要求下的性能要求相协调(如刚度),为满足不同的结构性能要求,找到最优的节点设计方法,仍需要更深入的研究。     

Statistical uncertainty in hazardous terrestrial concentrations estimated with aquatic ecotoxicity data

Since chemicals’ ecotoxic effects depend for most soil species on the dissolved concentration in pore water, the equilibrium partitioning (EP) method is generally used to estimate hazardous concentrations (HC50) in the soil from aquatic toxicity tests. The present study analyzes the statistical uncertainty in terrestrial HC50s derived by the EP-method. For 47 organic chemicals, we compared freshwater HC50s derived from standard aquatic ecotoxicity tests with porewater HC50s derived from terrestrial ecotoxicity tests. Statistical uncertainty in the HC50s due to limited species sample size and in organic carbon–water partitioning coefficients due to predictive error was treated with probability distributions propagated by Monte Carlo simulations. Particularly for specifically acting chemicals, it is very important to base the HC50 on a representative sample of species, composed of both target and non-target species. For most chemical groups, porewater HC50 values were approximately a factor of 3 higher than freshwater HC50 values. The ratio of the porewater HC50/freshwater HC50 was typically 3.0 for narcotic chemicals (2.8 for nonpolar and 3.4 for polar narcotics), 0.8 for reactive chemicals, 2.9 for neurotoxic chemicals (4.3 for AChE agents and 0.1 for the cyclodiene type), and 2.5 for herbicides–fungicides. However, the statistical uncertainty associated with this ratio was large (typically 2.3 orders of magnitude). For 81% of the organic chemicals studied, there was no statistical difference between the hazardous concentration of aquatic and terrestrial species. We conclude that possible systematic deviations between the HC50s of aquatic and terrestrial species appear to be less prominent than the overall statistical uncertainty.     

The synthetic pyrethroid isomers II. Biological activity

Abstract

Pure optical isomers of phenothrin, permethin and cypermethrin were synthesised and tested on a wide spectrum of insects (Blattella germanica, Leptinotarsa decemlineata, Tribolium confusum, Oncopeltus fasciatus, Musca domestica, Aedes aegypti). Our results suggest that in the structurally related series phenothrin, permethrin and cypermethrin the chemical modifications had only a small influence on intrinsic activity of the compounds at the target site. The activity of piperonylbutoxide synergised 1Rtrans phenothrin and 1Rcis permethrin (LD₅₀=1.2 ng/fly in both cases) is in a similar range to the most active 1RcisS cypermethrin isomer alone or with PB (LD₅₀=0.9 and 0.4 ng/fly, respectively). Some cypermethrin isomers considered previously to be totally inactive show significant activity depending on the tested insect species. The 1ReisR and 1RtransR isomers proved to be as active as the most potent isomers on mosquito. A similarly unexpected result was that in the case of mosquito all four trans isomers were significantly more active than the corresponding eis isomers.

The superiority of the (S)‐α configuration over (R)‐α was found. It does not result from a higher intrinsic activity at the target site, but rather from the enhanced metabolic resistance of (S)‐α‐esters to ester cleavage as confirmed by Synergist studies. The activity of the two most potent stereoisomers, 1ReisS and 1RtransS, could not be elevated by quinalphos, while the inactive 1ScisR and 1StransR isomers showed significant activity with the esterase inhibitor quinalphos administered sublethally.

In contrast with the antagonism between (S)‐ and (R)‐α‐epimers of cypermethrin reported earlier a considerable synergism was observed between 1RtransS and 1StransR enantiomer pair on flour beetle and housefly in tarsal contact tests.

The results with stereoisomers and their mixtures were utilised in the development of two new products, Chinmix (beta‐cypermetrhin) and Transmix (theta‐cypermetrhin).     

How Do Groups Solve Local Commons Dilemmas? Lessons from Experimental Economics in the Field

The use of experimental settings to observe human behaviour in a controlled environment of incentives, rules and institutions, has been widely used by the behavioural sciences for sometime now, particularly by psychology and economics. In most cases the subjects are college students recruited for one to two hour decision making exercises in which, depending on their choices, they earn cash averaging US$ 20. In such exercises players face a set of feasible actions, rules and incentives (payoffs) involving different forms of social exchange with other people, and that in most cases involve some kind of externalities with incomplete contracts, such as in the case of common-pool resources situations. Depending on the ecological and institutional settings, the resource users face a set of feasible levels of extraction, a set of rules regarding the control or monitoring of individual use, and sometimes ways of imposing material or non-material costs or rewards to those breaking or following the rules. We brought the experimental lab to the field and invited about two hundred users of natural resources in three Colombian rural villages to participate in such decision making exercises and through these and other research instruments we learned about the ways they solve - or fail to - tragedies of the commons with different social institutions. Further, bringing the lab to the field allowed us to explore some of the limitations of existing models about human behaviour and its consequences for designing policies for conserving ecosystems and improving social welfare.     

Experimental evidence for a dual pathway model analysis of coping with the climate crisis

Two experiments examined the psychological power of fear and group efficacy beliefs to increase environmental action intentions against the climate crisis. Extending a dual pathway model of coping with collective disadvantage, results showed evidence for emotion-focused approach coping: Environmental action intentions were increased by individuals' manipulated fear of the negative future consequences of the climate crisis (Experiments 1–2). Additionally, results showed evidence for problem-focused approach coping: Individuals' measured (Experiment 1) and manipulated group efficacy beliefs (Experiment 2) increased environmental action intentions. The results thus suggest that the dual pathway model can be successfully applied to a psychological analysis of emotion- and problem-focused approach coping with the climate crisis. We discuss the theoretical and practical implications of these results.     

Rural market imperfections and the role of institutions in collective action to improve markets for the poor

Many countries in sub‐Saharan Africa have liberalized markets to improve efficiency and enhance market linkages for smallholder farmers. The expected positive response by the private sector in areas with limited market infrastructure has however been very limited. The functioning of markets is constrained by high transaction costs and coordination problems along the production‐to‐consumption value chain. New kinds of institutional arrangements are needed to reduce these costs and fill the vacuum left when governments withdrew from markets in the era of structural adjustments. One of these institutional innovations has been the strengthening of producer organizations and formation of collective marketing groups as instruments to remedy pervasive market failures in rural economies. The analysis presented here with a case study from eastern Kenya has shown that marketing groups pay 20–25% higher prices than other buyers to farmers while participation was also positively correlated with adoption of improved dryland legume varieties, crops not targeted by the formal extension system. However the effectiveness of marketing groups is undermined by external shocks and structural constraints that limit the volume of trade and access to capital and information, and require investments in complementary institutions and coordination mechanisms to exploit scale economies. Successful groups have shown high levels of collective action in the form of increased participatory decision making, member contributions and initial start‐up capital. Failure to pay on delivery, resulting from lack of capital credit, is a major constraint that stifles competitiveness of marketing groups relative to other buyers. These findings call for interventions that improve governance and participation; mechanisms for improving access to operating capital; and effective strategies for risk management and enhancing the business skills of farmer marketing groups.     

飞机草提取物对小菜蛾产卵驱避活性的研究

以干扰作用控制指数作为评价指标,测定了飞机草提取物和乙醇提取物的不同萃取物对小菜蛾产卵驱避作用活性。结果表明,飞机草乙醇提取物及其氯仿萃取物对小菜蛾具有较强的驱避作用,驱避效果达80％以上,对小菜蛾起驱避作用的活性成分主要存在于氯仿萃取物中。     

多种环境雌激素对淡水鱼联合毒性作用的预测和评价

为预测和评价多种环境激素对生物的联合毒性效应,通过对雄性鲫鱼卵黄蛋白原诱导作用探讨了17β-雌二醇、17α-乙炔基雌二醇、双酚A、辛基苯酚等几种环境雌激素联合作用的环境影响.确定了每种化合物的剂量-效应曲线,混合物由单个化合物等毒性固定浓度比例混合而成,实验得出的混合物效应与通过浓度相加或反应相加作用模型计算得出的混合物效应比较.结果有很好的一致性.上述结果证明了类雌激素化合物呈现相加作用方式,即使在单独作用无显著效应的较低浓度下也可产生显著的混合物效应,混合物效应可通过两类模型预测.由于环境污染物组成往往不明确,通过浓度相加作用模型预测的结果较为保守,在环境风险评价中更加实用.