考虑逆向物流的应急物资配置流程SPN建模分析

应急物资的高效快速配置是降低灾害损失和顺利实施应急救援的有力保障。应急逆向物流包括废旧物资的回收利用以及可重复利用物资的回收再利用,能起到缓解应急物资匮乏,减少环境污染的作用。本文根据随机Petri网理论,构建考虑逆向物流的应急物资配置模型,通过对同构于该模型的马尔可夫链进行仿真,求得各种状态的稳态概率,结合马尔可夫链性质对关键因素进行静态分析和动态分析;通过“雅安地震”的案例应用表明,当地震灾害发生时,此模型可以反映各因素对应急物资配置整体流程的影响,并通过数值变化趋势反映不同条件下应急物资配置的关键环节,可以为灾后救援和应急物资的利用提供理论支持。     

Incorporating the Effects of Socioeconomic Uncertainty into Priority Setting for Conservation Investment

Abstract:  Uncertainty in the implementation and outcomes of conservation actions that is not accounted for leaves conservation plans vulnerable to potential changes in future conditions. We used a decision-theoretic approach to investigate the effects of two types of investment uncertainty on the optimal allocation of global conservation resources for land acquisition in the Mediterranean Basin. We considered uncertainty about (1) whether investment will continue and (2) whether the acquired biodiversity assets are secure, which we termed transaction uncertainty and performance uncertainty, respectively. We also developed and tested the robustness of different rules of thumb for guiding the allocation of conservation resources when these sources of uncertainty exist. In the presence of uncertainty in future investment ability (transaction uncertainty), the optimal strategy was opportunistic, meaning the investment priority should be to act where uncertainty is highest while investment remains possible. When there was a probability that investments would fail (performance uncertainty), the optimal solution became a complex trade-off between the immediate biodiversity benefits of acting in a region and the perceived longevity of the investment. In general, regions were prioritized for investment when they had the greatest performance certainty, even if an alternative region was highly threatened or had higher biodiversity value. The improved performance of rules of thumb when accounting for uncertainty highlights the importance of explicitly incorporating sources of investment uncertainty and evaluating potential conservation investments in the context of their likely long-term success.     

基于时空指示克里格的PM2.5不确定性分布

以山东省2014年PM_2.5浓度监测数据为对象,利用时空指示克里格理论和方法,实现对PM_2.5时空分布的不确定性分析.结果表明,山东省境内PM_2.5的空间自相关范围大于100km,时间自相关范围为3d左右.此外,山东省境内各空间位置全年空气质量以大于0.8的概率达到空气质量"优"级别的时空占比为7%,以大于0.8的概率达到轻度污染级别的时空占比为34%,以大于0.8的概率超过严重污染级别的时空占比为1%;东部沿海地域空气质量达到轻度污染的概率明显高于中西部,夏季空气质量也明显优于其它季节.     

红外分光光度法测定水中动植物油的不确定度评定

文章对红外分光光度法测定水中动植物油的不确定度来源进行了分析,构造出合理的数学模型,确定了各输入量之间的关系,量化各分量后,合成得到满意的结果。从而提出,根据被测量及其所依赖的输入量之间的关系构造数学模型,并综合运用不同的评定方法对各个分量进行量化,可实现对某些检测项目的不确定度评定。     

碱性过硫酸钾氧化-钼酸铵分光光度法测定水中的总磷及其不确定度的评定

经过消解前加入氢氧化钠和改用聚四氟乙烯消化管等方面的改进,碱性过硫酸钾氧化-钼酸铵分光度法的实际操作更简便,更适用于各类水样的监测。它具有较低的捡出限（O．004mg／L）,较高的精密度（RSD=1．1％）和较好的准确度（测定标样溶液相对误差1．6％,加标回收率为97．2％-102．1％）。测定IERM测量审核样的结果也较好（取得了合格证书）。不确定度的评定依照相关标准的原则进行,并使用残差来量化曲线不碹定度分量,减少了工作量。经评定,改进方法的扩展不确定度为3．2％。     

重铬酸钾法测定水中化学需氧量的不确定度评定

力求全面分析重铬酸钾法测定水中化学需氧量测量不确定度的来源,并以实例演示了化学需氧量测量不确定度的评定全过程。     

亚甲基蓝分光光度法测定空气中硫化氢不确定度评定

通过对亚甲基蓝分光光度法测定环境空气中硫化氢方法中不确定度来源进行了分析,对各个分量进行详细量化,计算处该分析方法的合成不确定度,给出结果的扩展不确定度。     

采用火焰原子吸收分光光度法测定水样中镍含量的不确定度评定

采用火焰原子吸收分光光度法对水样中镍的含量进行测定,分析测量过程中不确定度来源及各不确定度分量对总不确定度的影响,确定测定结果的置信区间。给出本实验室测定水样中镍含量的扩展不确定度为0．062mg／L（k=2）。     

Maximizing Returns from Payments for Water‐Based Ecosystem Services: Incorporating Externality Effects of Land Management

Given the expansion of payments for water‐based ecosystem services (PWES) worldwide, two relevant issues are as follows: (1) determination of efficient allocations of payments among land managers, and (2) how this might change when paying one manager to implement a best management practice (BMP) to enhance an ecosystem service impacts the cost‐effectiveness of BMPs considered by other land managers not currently involved in PWES. Such externalities may be negative if diminishing returns dominate, or positive if mechanisms such as “social diffusion” dominate. We analyze how a planner should optimally allocate payments, depending on whether the expected externalities are negligible, negative, or positive. We employ (1) an optimal control model to gain insights on the problem’s dynamics, and (2) stochastic dynamic programming to determine optimal funding strategies using a specific application. The study contributes to the literature by identifying dynamically optimal PWES payment patterns, and illustrates how they should change when one accounts for externalities induced by the program. Because such impacts have not been addressed previously in a rigorous way, this treatment provides useful value added for PWES design and implementation.     

回归模型法推导油菜田土壤Cd限值的不确定性

为研究土壤-作物迁移模型推导农田土壤环境基准的不确定性,以油菜为例,通过贵州省4种典型微酸性土壤——红壤、黄壤、石灰土和黄棕壤进行Cd盐添加的盆栽试验,除全量Cd外,选择5种有效态提取剂,分别与油菜籽w(Cd)建立土壤-作物迁移模型. 参照GB 13078—2001《饲料卫生标准》w(Cd)限值(0.5 mg/kg),采用模型预测中位值和95%预测上限进行土壤Cd限值推导并分析模型的不确定性. 结果表明:全量和各提取态Cd质量分数与油菜籽w(Cd)均能建立极显著的一元(R2为0.907~0.946)或多元(考虑pH)回归模型(R2为0.875~0.962). 5.550(以多元模型中位值推导的农田安全种植油菜的Cd限值)随pH的升高从0.93 mg/kg增至1.45 mg/kg,HNO₃提取态、HCl提取态、DTPA提取态的Cd的质量分数也分别从0.81、0.97、0.73 mg/kg升至1.39、1.79、1.66 mg/kg. 基于CaCl₂提取态Cd的一元模型对pH不敏感,SEQS₅₀不受其影响. 对所有模型而言,SEQS₅₀是SEQS₉₅(基于模型95%的预测上限推导的限值)的1.1倍左右. 其中,CaCl₂提取态Cd的SEQS₅₀和SEQS₉₅分别为0.052和0.049 mg/kg,小于福建省CaCl₂提取态Cd标准限值(0.15 mg/kg). 为降低不确定性,需要选择合适的提取剂,使用全量Cd,HNO₃、HCl或DTPA 3种提取态Cd建模时须兼顾pH的影响. 研究显示,SEQS₉₅能够降低土壤Cd限值达标而作物Cd含量超标的可能性.