An optimal level of dust explosion risk management: Framework and application

The current research provides guidance on the prevention and mitigation of dust explosion using a Quantitative Risk Management Framework (QRMF). Using concepts drawn from previous studies, the framework consists of three main steps: (i) a new combined safety management protocol, (ii) the use of DESC (Dust Explosion Simulation Code) and FTA (Fault Tree Analysis) to assess explosion consequences and likelihood, respectively, and (iii) application of the hierarchy of controls (inherent, engineered and procedural safety). QRMF assessment of an industrial case study showed that the original process was at high risk. DESC simulations and Probit equations determined the destructive percentages. FTAs revealed high probabilities of explosion occurrence; in addition, detailed individual and societal risks calculations were made, before and after the framework was applied. Based on the hierarchy of controls technique, the framework showed significant risk reduction to the point where the residual risk was acceptable for the process.     

环境温度对车用压缩天然气瓶火烧试验的影响

环境温度是研究车用压缩天然气瓶火烧试验机理的一个重要因素,因此有必要定量的研究环境温度对火烧试验的影响。在已有火烧试验数据的基础上,分析了环境温度对车用压缩天然气瓶火烧试验安全泄放压力和火烧持续时间两个关键指标的影响,结果表明安全泄放压力、火烧持续时间和环境温度均呈反比关系。     

Total nitrogen and community turnover determine phosphorus use efficiency of phytoplankton along nutrient gradients in plateau lakes

Numerous studies support that biodiversity predict most to ecosystem functioning, but whether other factors display a more significant direct impact on ecosystem functioning than biodiversity remains to be studied. We investigated 398 samples of the phytoplankton phosphorus resource use efficiency (RUE_P = chlorophyll-a concentration/dissolved phosphate) across two seasons in nine plateau lakes in Yunnan Province, China. We identified the main contributors to phytoplankton RUE_P and analyzed their potential influences on RUE_P at different lake trophic states. The results showed that total nitrogen (TN) contributed the most to RUE_P among the nine lakes, whereas community turnover (measured as community dissimilarity) explained the most to RUE_P variation across the two seasons. Moreover, TN also influenced RUE_P by affecting biodiversity. Species richness (SR), functional attribute diversity (FAD2), and dendrogram-based functional diversity (FDc) were positively correlated with RUE_P in both seasons, while evenness was negatively correlated with RUE_P at the end of the rainy season. We also found that the effects of biodiversity and turnover on RUE_P depended on the lake trophic states. SR and FAD2 were positively correlated with RUE_P in all three trophic states. Evenness showed a negative correlation with RUE_P at the eutrophic and oligotrophic levels, but a positive correlation at the mesotrophic level. Turnover had a negative influence on RUE_P at the eutrophic level, but a positive influence at the mesotrophic and oligotrophic levels. Overall, our results suggested that multiple factors and nutrient states need to be considered when the ecosystem functioning predictors and the biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relationships are investigated.     

后石油时代沙生灌木直燃发电对环境的影响＊

文章通过对内蒙古中西部地区沙生灌木的成分分析,基于生命周期法(LCA),定量论证了沙生灌木直燃发电开发模式对环境的影响和推广的可行性,指出相比石油等传统能源,这种模式具有较大的潜在效益,对于我国发展绿色替代能源,促进西部地区生态环境和经济协调发展具有一定的战略意义。     

爆炸超压场景下危化品社会风险对允许规划人口密度的影响分析*

为研究危化品重大危险源基于社会风险基准的规划管控影响,采用我国标准规定的定量风险评价方法,TNT当量炸药简化方法,针对最大TNT当量炸药、事故发生总累计频率、人口密度分布控制参数等不同工况条件,对比分析国土开发强度的允许人口密度受社会风险约束影响的变化规律。研究结果表明:人口密度指数分布控制参数Nk与Nb的允许取值随最大TNT当量炸药和事故发生总累计频率降低而提高;确定工况下,允许总人口规模受最大TNT当量炸药影响很小;在最大TNT当量炸药大于100 t或事故发生总累计频率小于1×10-8次/a时可按最大事故场景进行规划控制分析。     

Methodology for Natech coupling risk assessment using correlative multi-criteria decision-making method

When a natural disaster occurs, it may damage multiple industrial facilities in a certain area at the same time, and the resulting Natech events may have an impact on the surrounding industrial facilities, generating coupling risk. In this study, the assessment of Natech events coupling risk is conducted using the method of correlated multi-criteria decision-making, and the knowledge of fuzzy measures is introduced to solve the uncertainty problem in Natech coupling risk. Natech Coupling Risk Index is constructed to involve physical and functional facilities. The concept of equivalent population is proposed to compare the risks generated by physical facilities and functional facilities. And economic indicators are added to calculate the comprehensive risk value. The purpose of this contribution is to enable local government managers to use their expertise and resources and the existing risk assessment of the plants themselves and rely on the scoring of experts limitedly to quickly and easily identify potential high Natech risk areas. In the calculation process of coupling risk, the government can also take the lead to promote information communication between different plants and other industrial subjects. The proposed method was applied in a realistic chemical industry area in Guangzhou, China and in a hypothetical town. The result shows that the physical risk may be transferred to the population and economy through the coupling between industrial facilities and the functional link between functional facilities and population and economy.     

Stipulation of the criteria for the construction of eco agricultural county in China

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水生生物对三唑磷的物种敏感度分布研究

针对水环境中日益严重的有机磷农药污染问题,选择广泛使用的三唑磷作为研究对象,利用其对水生生态系统中不同营养层次生物物种的半数效应浓度(median effective concentration, EC₅₀),建立了基于对数-逻辑斯蒂分布的水生生物物种敏感度分布(species sensitivity distribution, SSD)模型,并采用概率图和吻合度检验方法对该模型进行了检验和评价.结果表明,水生生物对三唑磷的 SSD 服从对数-逻辑斯蒂分布,其参数为 α=-0.4788±0.2381,β=0.7546±0.1078.基于该 SSD 模型,获得三唑磷的 5% 危害浓度(hazardous concentration for 5% of the species, HC₅)值为 1.992×10^-3 mg/L,并推导出三唑磷的最大浓度基准值(criteria maximum concentration, CMC)值为 9.96×10^-4 mg/L.对 HC₅、CMC 与单一物种的安全浓度的比较研究指出,基于 SSD 方法制定环境质量标准更为严格,也更接近于真实的生态环境.另外,根据渤海莱州湾海域中三唑磷的监测数据,预测了其对物种的潜在影响比例(potentially affected fraction, PAF)为 0.36%,对该水域生态环境的影响处于较低风险水平.     

机载武器及其双配套设备可靠性鉴定试验方案的分析

通过分析机载武器的使用特点和情况,并结合实验室开展机载武器可靠性鉴定试验的已有经验,对该类装备的可靠性鉴定试验的方案进行了分析和讨论,对试验样件在充足或不足的条件下进行试验的各种试验方案进行了深入分析。指出了各种方案的优缺点,对比了各种试验方案的特点。最后给出了机载武器可靠性鉴定统计试验方案的选取原则。     

基于神经网络集成的单个飞行事件噪声预测模型

通过分析影响单个飞行事件噪声的各种因素,构建了BP神经网络回归预测模型,并通过自适应遗传算法优选出参与集成的个体神经网络,提出了预测单个飞行事件噪声的神经网络集成预测模型.为了有效保证差异性,设置不同隐藏神经元个数和Bagging算法来构建和训练单个网络.实验结果表明,单个飞行事件噪声的神经网络集成预测模型相对单个BP神经网络模型泛化能力更强,稳定性能更好.本文方法在测试集上误差在3dB以内的平均比率为96.9%,比单个网络高6.8%.