The consequences of being colonial: Allee effects in metapopulations of seabirds

Most seabirds live in large colonies. This fact signifies that there is an advantage in living and breeding together. Four explanations are put fore ward for this colonial behaviour, more birds have: (1) a reduced per capita predation of chicks in colonies, (2) a better anti-predator defence, (3) a more efficient foraging in temporally patchy environments and (4) sex ratios that are more likely to be close to one. These factors induce a strong Allee-type density-dependent relation, a positive relation between density and population growth rate at low density. Nevertheless, these Allee effects are generally ignored in seabird population studies. Therefore we study the consequences of introducing Allee-type density-dependent relations in a spatially explicit metapopulation model for the Common Tern (Sterna hirundo). Simulations show that Allee effects might be responsible for a 20-fold decline in the recolonization distances, causing patches and parts of metapopulations to effectively become more isolated. This leads to long recolonization times of empty breeding patches which consequently cause slower metapopulation expansion and recovery. Additionally, we show that the typical early warning signals, that show that a population is near its critical threshold induce by Allee effects, is less pronounced in colonies that are part of a metapopulation. Hence, we offer some simple equations to estimate critical densities and thresholds in a colony.     

A Model of Navigation-Induced Currents in Inland Waterways and Implications for Juvenile Fish Displacement

The likely extension of commercial inland navigation in the future could increase hazards directly impacting on the nurseries of freshwater fish, especially for smaller individuals with limited swimming abilities. One limitation of the evaluation of inland navigation on fish assemblages is the lack of suitable hydraulic models. This article presents a hydraulic model to assess the increase of navigation-induced physical forces due to higher vessel speed, length, and drought in a low-flowing waterway related to maximum swimming performance of fish to (1) foresee hazards of enhancement of inland navigation, (2) derive construction measures to minimize the hydraulic impact on small fish, and (3) improve fish recruitment in waterways.The derived model computed current velocities induced by passing commercial vessels in inland waterways experimentally verified and parameterized in a German lowland waterway. Results were linked with a model of maximum fish swimming performance to elucidate consequences for freshwater fish populations. The absolute magnitude of navigation-induced current limits the availability of littoral habitats for small fish. Typical navigation-induced current velocities of 0.7–1 m/s in the straight reaches of waterways will be maintained by fish longer than 42 mm only. Smaller juveniles unable to withstand those currents could become washed out, injured, or displaced. In contrast, in small local bays, the navigation-induced current declined significantly. According to our model, in a 20-m extended bay, the return current drops below 0.11 m/s, corresponding to the maximum swimming speed of a 9-mm-long fish. Thus, enhancing shoreline development by connecting oxbows, tributaries, and especially by purpose-built bays limits the impact on fish recruitment without restricting navigation resulting in more precautionary and sustainable inland navigation.     

实用修辞与课堂教学

文章分析了"实用修辞课"的教学现状,关键在于观念的转变、认识到位。对"实用修辞课"教学的认识定位要从"可有可无"转向"大有可用";针对大学实用汉语修辞课的教学目的、内容和方法提出了理论和实用的依据。     

薄膜结构风致振动研究进展

薄膜结构具有质量轻、刚度小、自振频率低的特点 ,因而属于风敏感结构。作用在薄膜结构上的风荷载 ,除与气流本身的特性有关外 ,还与结构在风荷载作用下的位移、速度、加速度等有关 ,从而引起附加的气动力。因此 ,在研究薄膜结构的风致振动时 ,必须考虑流固耦合作用。笔者对薄膜结构的风振研究方法进行了总结 ,主要介绍了简化气弹力学模型方法及简化流体力学解析模型方法 ,并分别用于分析小于临界风速时结构的反应和确定结构的颤振临界风速。     

Environmental audit: III. Improving the management of environmental information for toxic substances

Environmental programs have been commonly driven by a preoccupation with the collection of data in the mistaken belief thatdata is synonymous withinformation. The distinction between data (that is, the quantified and qualitative attributes of a particular environment) and information (specifically, data processed so as to focus upon a particular environmental problem) will become far more important to environmental managers. They will increasingly manage their information through use of what has become known as information resource management (IRM) and the attendant use of critical success factors methodology. Environmental managers will thereby move away from concerns about data and specific EDP hardware and applications toward managing information as a valuable agency resource. In applying IRM, they will find it helpful to include a number of planning elements and to resolve early a number of issues critical to its successful use.     

液幕式湿法脱硫中喷嘴型线对竖直射流特性的影响研究

液幕湿法脱硫就是利用竖直向上喷射的石灰石浆液冲洗烟气,吸收效果好坏主要取决于喷嘴的竖直射流情况,试验研究了7种用于该塔中的喷嘴竖直射流特性。发现各喷嘴竖直射流都存在临界雾化速度。整理出无量纲平均半径与射流速度之间的关系,分析发现喷口直径和喷嘴高度对回落液体覆盖面积影响不大。试验结果表明所有喷嘴的回落液幕分布均匀性相同。导出了射流高度与喷射压力关系式,发现试验范围内喷嘴阻力损失情况相当。     

赤红壤、砖红壤矿物油污染效应研究

本研究采用盆栽试验法,研究了赤红壤、砖红壤中矿物油对水稻、花生的生理生态影响和矿物油在土壤中的净化。研究结果表明:矿物油对第一季水稻生长发育影响不大,对第二季则表现出明显的抑制作用,低浓度矿物油对花生生长发育有促进作用,高浓度则对其起抑制作用;收获后,水稻各部分及水稻土,花生根及花生土油残留均与投油量呈极显著的直线正相关关系,油在作物根部最易积累;种植两季水稻后,油在赤红壤、砖红壤中的净化率分别为80％以上和50％左右。最后,根据上述研究确定了赤红壤、砖红壤的矿物油临界含量分别为270.90mg/kg和318.92mg/kg。      

Uncertainties in integrated assessment modelling of abatement strategies: illustrations with the ASAM model

Following the signing of the Second Sulphur Protocol in 1994 under the 1979 Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution, preparations are now underway for a new multi-pollutant multi-effects protocol, under the auspices of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UN ECE). A number of scientific models have been used to provide policy makers involved in these preparations with sound scientific information. These include the Abatement Strategies Assessment Model (ASAM). ASAM has recently been extended to cover abatement strategies for NH₃ and NOx as well as SO₂, in order to address the amelioration of acidification and eutrophication in the ECE region. It is important to be able to demonstrate that the scientific information provided to policy makers is robust to uncertainties, and hence there is a need for a thorough sensitivity analysis. In this study ASAM is used to demonstrate a large degree of robustness of derived abatement strategies to uncertainties in critical loads, meteorological data and cost information. This is based on a comparison of strategies at the same overall abatement cost. Systematic changes in data are shown to influence model results more profoundly than random changes.     

十字平交通道不同排烟模式烟控效果的数值模拟研究

十字平交通道是主、辅通道在中间位置十字相交的一种较为少见的城市道路形式,火灾情况下烟气运动和通风排烟策略不同于常规意义上的公路隧道。采用FDS模拟软件研究辅通道三种通风排烟模式的烟控效果,综合考虑不同火灾规模、射流风机位置、射流形式等的影响作用。结果表明:辅通道单侧射流、两侧同向射流和两侧相向射流作用均存在最小临界风速。火灾规模为0 MW~30 MW,最小临界风速值随火灾规模变化关系为:Y=Y0+bX。两侧相向射流对应最小临界风速最大,烟气层结构破坏严重,火场温降效果最差;单侧射流和两侧同向射流对应的最小临界风速值较小且差别不大,结合工程实际情况,考虑单侧风机射流模式为较合理优化的烟控方式。     

Impact of climate changes on pollution levels in Denmark

The impact of climate changes on the pollution levels in Denmark is the major topic of this paper. Variations of the Danish air pollution levels that are caused by climatic changes are studied together with variations caused by other factors (emissions, inter-annual variability of meteorological conditions, etc.). The Unified Danish Eulerian Model (UNI-DEM) was run on a fine, 10 km × 10 km, grid over a space domain covering all of Europe to minimize the influence of the boundary conditions on the Danish pollution levels. This study is based on four categories of scenarios: (i) traditional scenarios, (ii) climatic scenarios, (iii) scenarios with variations of the human-made (anthropogenic) emissions and (iv) scenarios in which the biogenic emissions were varied. The total number of applied scenarios was 14, and a time-period of 16 years was used. The results show clearly that although the concentrations of the major pollutants do not depend too much on the climatic changes, some quantities, in particular quantities related to high ozone levels, might be increased significantly as a result of the warming trends in the future climate. The reason for this phenomenon is explained.