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Use of structured expert judgment to forecast invasions by bighead and silver carp in Lake Erie 下载免费PDF全文
Marion E. Wittmann Roger M. Cooke John D. Rothlisberger Edward S. Rutherford Hongyan Zhang Doran M. Mason David M. Lodge 《Conservation biology》2015,29(1):187-197
Identifying which nonindigenous species will become invasive and forecasting the damage they will cause is difficult and presents a significant problem for natural resource management. Often, the data or resources necessary for ecological risk assessment are incomplete or absent, leaving environmental decision makers ill equipped to effectively manage valuable natural resources. Structured expert judgment (SEJ) is a mathematical and performance‐based method of eliciting, weighting, and aggregating expert judgments. In contrast to other methods of eliciting and aggregating expert judgments (where, for example, equal weights may be assigned to experts), SEJ weights each expert on the basis of his or her statistical accuracy and informativeness through performance measurement on a set of calibration variables. We used SEJ to forecast impacts of nonindigenous Asian carp (Hypophthalmichthys spp.) in Lake Erie, where it is believed not to be established. Experts quantified Asian carp biomass, production, and consumption and their impact on 4 fish species if Asian carp were to become established. According to experts, in Lake Erie Asian carp have the potential to achieve biomass levels that are similar to the sum of biomasses for several fishes that are harvested commercially or recreationally. However, the impact of Asian carp on the biomass of these fishes was estimated by experts to be small, relative to long term average biomasses, with little uncertainty. Impacts of Asian carp in tributaries and on recreational activities, water quality, or other species were not addressed. SEJ can be used to quantify key uncertainties of invasion biology and also provide a decision‐support tool when the necessary information for natural resource management and policy is not available. El Uso de Juicio Experto Estructurado para Predecir Invasiones de Carpas Asiáticas en el Lago Erie 相似文献
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The influence of bioturbation caused by common carp fry was treated in 24 transparent polythene jars (5?L each) in the laboratory and in outdoor vats (150?L), increasing the fertilizer value of phosphate rock in eight treatment combinations in triplicate. Input of water soluble reactive phosphate (SRP) was determined to quantify the effects of bioturbation, fish excrements and soil. The level of SRP in water was always lowest in the control series. Introduction of common carp fry resulted in a net increase of 0.009–0.010?mg phosphate g?1day?1 of SRP attributable to the effect of fish excrement. Bioturbation caused by common carp resulted in as high as a 64.8 to 90% influx of phosphate from bottom soil in the presence of phosphate rock but only about 6.3 to 7.2% in the absence of phosphate rock. The bioturbation that occurred in this treatment resulted in a significant release of phosphorous into the overlying water from an apatite source. The results confirm the environment friendly application of phosphate rock in fish-farming ponds at low cost. 相似文献
44.
自1991年以来,对氵鬲湖鲫、鲤鱼的种群结构、生态环境等进行了较全面的调查研究,提出了在保持草型湖泊生态系统良性循环基础上,合理地利用氵鬲湖天然饵料资源进行渔业生态管理,使可更新资源尽可能多地转化为鲫、鲤商品鱼的建议,以充分提高鲫、鲤产值效益。文中有关入湖鱼种死亡过程的双峰曲线,尚未见诸报道。 相似文献
45.
Carp fingerlings exposed to a sublethal concentration (0.5?mg?L?1) of sodium cyanide showed a steady decrement over a 7-day period in respiratory rate, rise in lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), and fall in succinate dehydrogenase (SDH) activities followed by variations in lactic and pyruvate levels. Changes in these enzyme activities might be due to impaired oxidative metabolism and severe cellular damage leading to the release of these enzymes. Decline in the activities of SDH and LDH clearly represents a shift from aerobic to anaerobic metabolism as evidenced by elevated lactate and decline in pyruvate levels. The shift to anaerobic metabolism is also reflected by severe drop in the respiratory rate of the fish. This may be a consequence of the blockage of electron transfer from cytochrome c oxidase to molecular oxygen, thus ceasing cellular respiration and it can lead to cellular hypoxia even in the presence of normal hemoglobin oxygenation. Hence, we indirectly reconfirm the inhibition of oxidative metabolism by sodium cyanide. Alterations in behavioral pattern induced by sublethal sodium cyanide exposure may be due to the combination of cytotoxic hypoxia with lactate acidosis, which depresses the central nervous system (CNS); as the brain is the most sensitive site to anoxia, it results in impaired CNS function. 相似文献
46.
低pH对草鱼呼吸活动和耗氧代谢的影响 总被引:8,自引:0,他引:8
研究了低pH(6.0—3.6)对草鱼呼吸活动机能及耗氧代谢的影响.结果表明,在pH4.6—3.6条件下,草鱼呼吸和气体代谢活动受干扰的程度随酸度增大而急剧加重.其具体表现为:呼吸率加快,咳嗽反应增加,呼吸深度加大.耗氧率起始升高继而迅速下降,并在极端pH(3.6)下最终引起机体组织缺氧而致死.对于pH5.6,草鱼各类呼吸与代谢指标未受明显影响,基本属于正常.供试草鱼对低pH反应的灵敏程度依次为:咳嗽率>呼吸率>耗氧率>呼吸深度. 相似文献
47.
借助叶绿素荧光技术,通过对杂食性鱼类鲫鱼(Crucian Carp)和金鲫鱼(Gold Crucian Carp)摄食微囊藻(Microcysis aeruginosa)后排泄物的培养,从鱼类排泄物藻类叶绿素荧光活性的角度探讨了杂食性鱼类在控藻上的应用.结果表明,鱼类摄食对微囊藻生长及叶绿素荧光参数均有显著影响(P<0.05).鲫鱼组的叶绿素荧光参数ΦPSII从第3d开始,Fv/Fo、Fv/Fm、ETR和qP从第5d开始随培养时间的延长而增加,而NPQ始终呈下降趋势.金鲫鱼组的叶绿素荧光参数(Fv/Fo、Fv/Fm、ΦPSII、ETR、qP)在培养期间一直呈降低趋势.鲫鱼组的Chl a浓度与细胞密度在培养期间先下降再上升,最后恢复至对照组水平,且Chl a浓度同部分叶绿素荧光参数(Fv/Fo、Fv/Fm、ΦPSII)呈现极显著正相关(P<0.01);金鲫鱼组的Chl a浓度与细胞密度于实验期间均下降,实验期间一直低于对照组,且两参数均与叶绿素荧光参数(Fv/Fo、Fv/Fm、ΦPSII、ETR、qP)呈极显著正相关(P<0.01).可见,微囊藻经鲫鱼摄食后,其叶绿素光合及生长活性经过短暂的下降后会逐渐恢复,而金鲫鱼可有效降低微囊藻活性,但金鲫鱼作为一种观赏鱼类,不适宜在大面积水体放养. 相似文献
48.
模拟生物采样和原位鱼体生物富集水中PAHs的比较 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
半渗透膜采样技术(SPMD)模拟了生物富集水中疏水性有机污染物的过程,并且可以用来监测生物有效态污染物的长期平均浓度.但是在野外条件下SPMD和鱼体生物富集作用的比较研究相对较少.本工作在太湖梅梁湾选取了5个站点,同时放置SPMD和笼养的鲫鱼暴露32 d,以研究水体中多环芳烃(PAHs)在SPMD和鱼体内的富积规律.结果表明,SPMD和鲫鱼所富集的多环芳烃在组分构成和相对富集量上类似,不同采样点的各种多环芳烃的生物浓缩因子(lg BCF)和器件富集因子(lg DCF)之间存在显著相关性(p<0.000 1).定量的分析数据表明,鱼体和SPMD对PAHs的富集量在脂类归一化后差异不大,两者的比值在0.47和4.12之间变动,有较好的可比性.因此认为,SPMD能够模拟淡水湖泊中鱼类富集多环芳烃的过程,可以用来估算多环芳烃在鱼体中的浓度水平. 相似文献
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以锦鲤(Cyprinus carprio)为试验生物,经不同浓度(6.0,3.0,2.0,1.2,0.6mg/L)联苯胺暴露14d,研究其对肝脏谷胱甘肽过氧化物酶(GSH-Px),过氧化氢酶(CAT),超氧化物歧化酶(SOD)和谷胱甘肽硫转移酶(GST)以及谷丙转氨酶(GPT)活性的影响.结果表明,锦鲤经联苯胺暴露,肝脏GSH-Px活性几乎持续受抑制;暴露第4d出现CAT的诱导,但随着暴露的延续,在第7,14d出现酶活性抑制;对SOD的影响多表现为诱导作用,但在高浓度(6.0,3.0mg/L)暴露第14d则出现酶活性抑制;对GST和GPT的影响一般表现为在低浓度暴露下的酶诱导,高浓度暴露下酶活性受抑制.GSH-Px对联苯胺暴露最为敏感,有可能成为评价水环境联苯胺污染的生物标志物. 相似文献