资源型产业集群演化的外部环境因素分析

资源型产业集群是以自然资源的开发和加工为主体.以资源产韭为核心的众多相互合作和竞争的企业或组织集聚在资源产地两形成的网络群体.资源型产业集群处于复杂的外部环境当中,本文在综合学者研究和广泛的实地调研的基础上提出了资源型产业集群演化的外部环境因素模型,认为影响资源型产业集群演化的外部环境因素包括:政府行为、金融环境、行业技术进步、相关产业的发展变化、市场需求、对外开放、基础设施、生态环境以及公众意识.本文采用DEMATEL方法对资源型产业集群演化的外部环境因素进行分析,通过对相关专家进行的问卷调查,确定资源型产业集群演化的外部环境因素之闻的直接影响关系,在计算出各因素在资源型产业集群演化的外部环境因素模型中的综合影响关系的基础上,认为政府可以在资源型产业集群演化过程中发挥关键的作用.本文最后提出了相应的政策建议以提高政府对资源型产业集群演化的促进作用.     

Analysis of train derailments and collisions to identify leading causes of loss incidents in rail transport of dangerous goods in Canada

The Canadian railway industry has improved safety performance in the last decade as measured by freight loss incidents per billion gross ton-miles. Further improvements in safety performance require a deeper analysis of the leading causes to identify weaknesses in implementing safety systems. In this paper, we classify the causes of railway loss incidents using a Safety Management System (SMS) framework to identify system weaknesses. The role of human factors is further analyzed through the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) approach. For this, we utilized data from 42 main track derailments and collisions involving the transport of dangerous goods in Canada between 2007 and 2018, which have been investigated by the Transportation Safety Board of Canada in detail. Associations between adjacent sub-categories of the HFACS framework are analyzed to identify any interdependency that exists between active and latent errors using a Chi-square test and Kruskal's lambda analysis. Furthermore, we implement the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) method and the Analytical Network Process (ANP) to identify causal relationships between different sub-categories of the HFACS framework and calculate the weighted influence of each sub-category on main track derailments and collisions. Finally, a comparison is made between this work and others', which have analyzed human factors in the railway industry. There is good agreement between the results of these studies that highlight the importance of supervisory and organizational factors in the prevention of railway loss incidents. Based on these findings, we make recommendations to reduce railway loss incidents.     

Analyzing the factors affecting environmental risks of projects using a hybrid approach of DEMATEL‐ANP,artificial neural network: A case study

The increasing growth of the economy in each country necessitates a great amount of investment in infrastructure. The belief that projects involve various uncertainties, such as technical skills, management quality, and the like, indicates that most projects fail to achieve their aims, interests, costs, as well as their timeframes and space requirements. As the environment can pose significant uncertainty to any project, environmental risks should be deeply studied by project management departments. This study intends to analyze as a case the environmental risk management system within a consulting firm. From this analysis, each aspect of a project's environmental risk management is ranked using a fuzzy analytical network process (ANP), a neural network algorithm, and a decision‐making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) methodology. From the organizational aspect, budget risk is the most significant. From the technical aspect, the risk of regulations is the most important one. Finally, the risk of project failure from poor communication is another identified main risk in this research. By studying high‐ranking items in this hierarchy, it can be understood that these criteria exist in different aspects; therefore, all aspects of the risk should be taken into account to cover and assess risk. A neural network algorithm for validating and reassessment of ranking is employed. Results of this application showed that, based on Spearman's rank correlation method, two different approaches resulted in similar rankings. Finally, some practical implications for responding to the most highly ranked risks are proposed.     

煤矿企业员工不安全行为影响因子分析研究

为探讨煤矿企业员工不安全行为影响因子的相互关系,基于行为安全模型,从管理者、班组长和一线员工3个角度进行分析,确定了对行为安全有关键影响的因子群。在此基础上,采用决策试验与评价实验室(DEMATEL)方法,研究构建行为影响因子之间的依赖关系矩阵,揭示安全投入程度、安全监管机构能力、安全处罚适当性等因子对员工行为方式的影响程度,并形成煤矿员工行为方式影响因子的四分图。结果表明:安全投入程度是煤矿员工行为方式的主要影响因子和原因因子,管理者行为影响因子均是其原因因子,管理者的行为方式对企业安全状况有较大影响。     

基于DEMATEL的机械生产人员行为形成关键因子分析

针对机械生产人员安全行为形成受多种因素交互影响的问题,提出了一种基于模糊数学和DEMATEL法耦合的机械生产人员行为形成关键因子量化分析方法。首先,运用行为形成因子分析方法确定机械生产人员作业行为影响因素,构建了包含5个因子大类和24个因子因素的机械生产人员行为形成因子体系,然后运用三角模糊数表征因素间的关联程度,并通过问卷调查获取数据,从而借助DEMATEL法构建机械生产人员行为形成关键因子分析模型。最后,通过一个算例,说明所提出分析模型的运用过程。结果表明,所建立的方法可以定量确定机械生产人员行为形成关键因子。     

危化品物流运输企业安全管理能力模型构建

为了明晰危化品物流运输企业安全管理能力要素的相互关系和结构属性,提出了 一种层次分析法和DEMATEL法耦合的安全管理能力分析方法。首先,在现有安全管理能 力研究的基础上建立考虑涌现性的危化品物流运输企业安全管理能力概念模型并确定危 化品物流运输企业安全管理能力的构成要素;然后针对传统DEMATEL方法的不足,构建 了基于层次分析法的改进DEMATEL方法;最后,通过问卷调研获取危化品物流运输企业 安全管理能力影响因素重要度判断矩阵,并通过中心度和原因度确定能力要素相互关系 。研究结果表明,所建立的方法可以用于分析危化品物流运输企业安全管理能力并构建 其结构模型。     

基于DEMATEL-ISM的城市灾害韧性影响因素研究

提高城市灾害韧性对于城市可持续发展意义重大.在确定城市灾害韧性影响因素的基础上,将DEMA-TEL(决策试验与评价实验法)与ISM(解释结构模型法)相结合,识别关键影响因素,明晰影响因素之间的作用路径与层次结构,绘制原因结果图,构建多级递阶结构模型,从而直观的呈现关键影响因素及作用路径.结果表明,城市灾害韧性影响因素可...     

基于DEMATEL/ISM的深水井喷风险影响因素研究*

为提高深水井喷事故风险管理水平,提出研究深水井喷风险影响因素的分析方法。从技术、人员、环境和管理4个方面,识别深水井喷事故风险致因因素,建立深水井喷事故风险评价指标体系;运用矩阵决策实验室分析法（DEMATEL）,研究风险因素之间的相互影响关系,计算不同风险因素的中心度和原因度,确定关键风险因素;进一步基于解释结构模型（ISM）划分不同影响因素的层次结构,分析风险因素之间的综合影响关系,建立深水井喷事故风险影响因素模型。结果表明:层级1为近邻致因,可直接导致井喷事故的发生;层级2~7为过渡致因,在风险传递过程中起到桥梁作用,对井喷事故的直接影响较小;而层级8则为本质致因,重视本质致因的改善有利于从根源上降低井喷事故的风险。研究结果可为深水井喷事故风险的预防和控制提供理论依据。     

矿工情境意识多层递阶驱动模型构建

为了分析煤矿工人的情境意识要素间的因果关系结构,建立更具鲁棒性的情境意识驱动模型,提出了一种基于DEMATEL和ISM法耦合的矿工情境意识驱动模型构建方法。首先,在构建情境意识概念模型的基础上从组织、个人和环境3个维度辨识矿工情境意识驱动要素;然后,运用熵值法计算矿工情境意识驱动要素的权重,并借助DEMATEL和ISM方法确定情境意识驱动要素间的因果作用关系,进而构建矿工情境意识驱动模型。结果表明,班组安全氛围是矿工情境意识的根本影响因素;生理心理状况、工作记忆、作业能力和作业经验是直接影响因素;组织制度、人岗匹配性、作业环境、培训组织、作业规程和作业负荷设计是间接影响因素。     

A fuzzy DEMATEL method to evaluate critical operational hazards during gas freeing process in crude oil tankers

Gas freeing process in crude oil tanker ships is widely recognized one of the most hazardous aspects of shipboard operations. Although the process provides practical benefits to ship by removing the explosive or poisonous gases from the cargo tanks and raising the oxygen level up to 21 percent, the consequences of failure may cause serious damage to human health, marine environment and cargo. Therefore, the crew exercise utmost care and become aware of the potential hazards in gas freeing process. In this context, this paper provides a fuzzy DEMATEL (Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory) method to evaluate critical operational hazards in gas freeing process. While the DEMATEL method enables to identify and analyse the potential hazards of gas freeing process with respect to causal–effect relation diagram, fuzzy sets deal with the uncertainty in decision-making and human judgements through the DEMATEL. Thus, the hybrid approach provides smart solution for safety practitioners to prevent critical hazards in gas freeing process. The results of the research will contribute to maritime safety at sea and prevention of environment pollution as well as loss of life on-board crude oil tankers ships.