长江三角洲地区霾判别方法的对比分析

为对比霾判别方法的差异,探讨霾观测标准的再完善性,文中从空间分布与单点时间序列两方面分别分析研究了4种霾判别方法的特征与适用性.选取中国长江三角洲地区1980~2009年38个地面观测站的气象资料,根据使用日均值的方法 1、2和使用14:00观测值的方法 3分别统计各站点的霾日,分析3种方法的异同.发现这些方法都能够反映出霾的长期变化趋势,但存在差异,这种差异随着年代际变化逐渐减小.由方法 1得到的霾日数最多,方法 3考虑了天气现象,比方法 1和2更合理.依据南京北郊2012年5月~2013年4月的逐时PM2.5浓度、相对湿度和能见度等资料,分析比较了方法 4(霾的观测和等级预报,QX/T 113-2010)与方法 1、2、3的不同.结果表明,由方法 3统计出的霾日少于其他方法,由方法 4统计出的霾日数介于方法 1与方法 3的结果;方法 3不能分辨出霾的严重程度,而其他方法能较好地分辨出霾的严重程度.     

ESTIMATING PARAMETERS OF EV1 DISTRIBUTION FOR FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: The parameters of the extreme value type 1 distribution were estimated for 55 annual flood data sets by seven methods. These are the methods of (1) moments, (2) probability weighted moments, (3) mixed moments, (4) maximum likelihood estimation, (5) incomplete means, (6) principle of maximum entropy, and (7) least squares. The method of maximum likelihood estimation was found to be the best and the method of incomplete means the worst. The differences between the methods of principle of maximum entropy, probability weighted moments, moments, and least squares were only minor. The difference between these methods and the method of maximum likelihood was not pronounced.     

Integration of multi-channel piezometry and electrical tomography to better define chemical heterogeneity in a landfill leachate plume within a sand aquifer

The Hanai-Bruggeman effective medium theory is used to relate bulk electrical conductivity, measured by surface and cross-borehole images, to fluid electrical conductivity, surface conductance, porosity and the geometry factor, in a medium- to fine-grained sand deposit. The change in bulk EC is caused by the presence of a landfill leachate plume. Repeated electrical images over a period of 16 months indicate that various segments of the plume are moving. The chemical constituents of the leachate plume have been determined by sampling from a bundled piezometer located in the electrical image field. Very close agreement is demonstrated between the fluid EC anomaly and the presence of elevated bulk EC indicating that the electrical images can be used to map the plume geometry and to monitor the movement of the plume segments.     

Modelling radionuclide transport for time varying flow in a channel network

Water flowrates and flow directions may change over time in the subsurface for a number of reasons. In fractured rocks flow takes place in channels within fractures. Solutes are carried by the advective flow. In addition, solutes may diffuse in and out of stagnant waters in the rock matrix and other stagnant water regions. Sorbing species may sorb on fracture surfaces and on the micropore surfaces in the rock matrix. We present a method by which solute particles can be traced in flowing water undergoing changes in flowrate and direction in a complex channel network where the solutes can also interact with the rock by diffusion in the rock matrix. The novelty of this paper is handling of diffusion in the rock matrix under transient flow conditions. The diffusive processes are stochastic and it is not possible to follow a particle deterministically. The method therefore utilises the properties of a probability distribution function for a tracer moving in a fracture where matrix diffusion is active. The method is incorporated in a three dimensional channel network model. Particle tracking is used to trace out a multitude of flowpaths, each of which consists of a large number of channels within fractures. Along each channel the aperture and velocity as well as the matrix sorption properties can vary. An efficient method is presented whereby a particle can be followed along the variable property flowpath. For stationary flow conditions and a network of channels with advective flow and matrix diffusion, a simple analytical solution for the residence time distribution along each pathway can be used. Only two parameter groups need to be integrated along each path. For transient flow conditions, a time stepping procedure that incorporates a stochastic Monte-Carlo like method to follow the particles along the paths when flow conditions change is used. The method is fast and an example is used for illustrative purposes. It is exemplified by a case where land rises due to glacial rebound. It is shown that the effects of changing flowrates and directions can be considerable and that the diffusive migration in the matrix can have a dominating effect on the results.     

开滦集团RMDC管理模式研究

在实现经济体制转变、逐步适应社会主义市场经济体制期间，开滦集团公司企业内部管理暴露出一系列问题。通过问题的分析，综合运用现代管理理论，构建了企业管理模式的框架体系，并结合企业发展历史和现状，研究设计了企业管理模式的重点内容。     

Impact of Criticism of Null-Hypothesis Significance Testing on Statistical Reporting Practices in Conservation Biology

Abstract:  Over the last decade, criticisms of null-hypothesis significance testing have grown dramatically, and several alternative practices, such as confidence intervals, information theoretic, and Bayesian methods, have been advocated. Have these calls for change had an impact on the statistical reporting practices in conservation biology? In 2000 and 2001, 92% of sampled articles in Conservation Biology and Biological Conservation reported results of null-hypothesis tests. In 2005 this figure dropped to 78%. There were corresponding increases in the use of confidence intervals, information theoretic, and Bayesian techniques. Of those articles reporting null-hypothesis testing—which still easily constitute the majority—very few report statistical power (8%) and many misinterpret statistical nonsignificance as evidence for no effect (63%). Overall, results of our survey show some improvements in statistical practice, but further efforts are clearly required to move the discipline toward improved practices.     

沉积物重金属环境地球化学特征研究方法进展

从沉积物重金属环境地球化学特征的角度,结合国内外研究成果,阐述了沉积物重金属环境地球化学特征研究方法研究进展,分析总结了目前的研究方法和成果,提出为全面了解重金属污染物在沉积物中迁移转化规律,需全面对比每一类研究方法.     

水库扩建工程水体富营养化预测评价方法研究

以附廓水库、木浪河水库、沙坝水库3个水库扩建工程为例,综合考虑水体富营养化计算预测评价、水体富营养化现状调查评价、水生生态现状调查等方面的结论,对3个水库扩建后富营养化水平进行预测评价。     

二氧化氯消毒无机消毒副产物控制技术进展研究

日常生活、生产中,饮用水消毒剂受到广泛关注.中国《生活饮用水卫生标准》(GB 5749-2006)规定二氧化氯可作为饮用水消毒剂,但其在消毒过程中所产生的无机消毒副产物,对人类健康存在潜在的危害.随着检测和控制技术水平的发展,对饮用水中无机消毒副产物的研究已成为热点.文章参考大量文献,对饮用水中无机消毒副产物的控制技术进行了详细讨论.     

Reliability of groundwater vulnerability maps obtained through statistical methods

Statistical methods are widely used in environmental studies to evaluate natural hazards. Within groundwater vulnerability in particular, statistical methods are used to support decisions about environmental planning and management. The production of vulnerability maps obtained by statistical methods can greatly help decision making. One of the key points in all of these studies is the validation of the model outputs, which is performed through the application of various techniques to analyze the quality and reliability of the final results and to evaluate the model having the best performance. In this study, a groundwater vulnerability assessment to nitrate contamination was performed for the shallow aquifer located in the Province of Milan (Italy). The Weights of Evidence modeling technique was used to generate six model outputs, each one with a different number of input predictive factors. Considering that a vulnerability map is meaningful and useful only if it represents the study area through a limited number of classes with different degrees of vulnerability, the spatial agreement of different reclassified maps has been evaluated through the kappa statistics and a series of validation procedures has been proposed and applied to evaluate the reliability of the reclassified maps. Results show that performance is not directly related to the number of input predictor factors and that is possible to identify, among apparently similar maps, those best representing groundwater vulnerability in the study area. Thus, vulnerability maps generated using statistical modeling techniques have to be carefully handled before they are disseminated. Indeed, the results may appear to be excellent and final maps may perform quite well when, in fact, the depicted spatial distribution of vulnerability is greatly different from the actual one. For this reason, it is necessary to carefully evaluate the obtained results using multiple statistical techniques that are capable of providing quantitative insight into the analysis of the results. This evaluation should be done at least to reduce the questionability of the results and so to limit the number of potential choices.