国内外可持续发展评价方法对比分析

国际、国内很多组织都对可持续性评价方法进行过研究分析,但大多是特定的案例研究.目前国内外对可持续发展评价方法没有一个全面系统的分析比较,使得不同地区比较起来很困难.本文对各种评价方法如环境可持续性指数法、生态足迹法、能值分析法和指标综合评价法的来源、理论和应用作了介绍.得出各方法适用范围:可持续性指数法适合于国家间的综合评价;生态足迹和能值分析法适合于各种范围,包括国家、区域、地区和小系统;指标体系综合评价法对于小范围更合适.同时对各种方法的优势和缺陷进行了分析讨论,得出:可持续性指数法信息量大,但是计算复杂;生态足迹法计算过程简单,但是缺失一些可持续性信息;能值分析法考虑问题全面,但是其原理涉及热力学知识,很难被一些学者认同;指标体系评价法变通性较大,可随着评价系统的变化而进行调整,但是主观性较强.通过分析指出不同方法适用范围并指出每种分析方法的优势和不足,为以后选择合适的分析方法评价对象的可持续性提供依据.     

Extraction and clean-up methods for organochlorine pesticides determination in milk

Organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) can cause environmental damage and human health risks since they are lipophilic compounds with high resistance to degradation and long half-lives in humans. As most persistent OCPs have been banned years ago, it is expected to find these compounds at trace levels in environment. Therefore, increasingly sensitive and reliable analytical techniques are required to ensure effective monitoring of these compounds. The aim of this review is to discuss extraction and clean-up methods used to monitor OCP residues in milk, reported in the last 20 years. To carry out this review, an exhaustive bibliographic review was conducted. Despite the disadvantages of conventional extraction and clean-up methods, such as liquid–liquid, solid-phase or Soxhlet extractions, these procedures are still used due to their reliability. New extraction methods, like solid-phase microextraction, matrix solid-phase dispersion or QuEChERS, have not been thoroughly evaluated for OCP determination in milk. Almost all the methodologies analyzed in this review presented good performance characteristics according to the performance acceptability criteria set in SANCO’s procedure. Comparison between limits of quantification (LOQ) and detection (LOD), for the reported methodologies, is not always possible due to the heterogeneity of the units. Thus, researchers should take into account an homogenization of LOD and LOQ units, according to the international regulations and MRLs established. Finally, more research is necessary to obtain the ideal methodology for OCPs determination in milk, which comprises the environmentally friendly characteristics of the new techniques and the reliability of the traditional methodologies.     

Ecotoxicological effects assessment in the Netherlands: Recent developments

In a recently published annex to the National Environmental Policy Plan of the Netherlands (1989), attention was paid to ecotoxicological effects assessment. The proposed procedure was based on the advice of the Health Council of the Netherlands (1989) on risk assessment of toxic chemicals for ecosystems. The various extrapolation methods described by the Health Council are critically discussed in this paper. The extrapolation method of Van Straalen and Denneman (1989) is evaluated for eight chemicals and 11 aquatic species. Conclusions are drawn about the quality and quantity of the ecotoxicological data needed for aquatic effects assessment. For the soil—a compartment that is often at risk—ecotoxicological effects assessment is not possible because suitable ecotoxicological test methods still have to be developed.     

Evaluation of tidal marsh restoration: Comparison of selected macroinvertebrate populations on a restored impounded valley marsh and an unimpounded valley marsh within the same salt marsh system in Connecticut,USA

Macroinvertebrates were examined on an impounded valley marsh in Stonington, Connecticut, that has changed from aTypha-dominated system to one with typical salt-marsh vegetation during 13 years following the reintroduction of tidal exchange. Animal populations on this restored impounded marsh were evaluated by comparing them with populations on a nearby unimpounded valley marsh of roughly the same size. Populations of the high marsh snail,Melampus bidentatus Say, were quantitatively sampled along transects that extended from the water-marsh edge to the upland; those of the ribbed mussel,Geukensia demissa Dillwyn, were sampled in low marsh areas on transects along the banks of creeks and mosquito ditches. The occurrence of other marsh invertebrates also was documented, but their abundance was not measured. The mean density ofMelampus was 332±39.6 SE/m² on the restored impounded marsh and 712±56.0 SE/m² on the unimpounded marsh. However, since snails were larger on the restored impounded marsh, the difference in snail biomass was less pronounced than the difference in snail density. MeanMelampus biomass was 4.96±0.52 SE g dry wt/m² on the restored impounded marsh and 6.96±0.52 SE g dry wt/m² on the unimpounded marsh. On the two marshes, snail density and biomass varied in relation to plant cover and other factors. The density and biomass ofGeukensia at the edge of the marsh were comparable on the restored impounded and unimpounded marshes. Mean mussel densities ranged from 80 to 240/m² and mean mussel biomass varied from 24.8–64.8 g dry wt/m² in different low marsh areas. In contrast, below the impoundment dike, meanGeukensia density was 1100±96.4 SE/m² and meanGeukensia biomass was 303.6±33.28 SE g dry wt/m². A consideration of all available evidence leads to the conclusion that the impounded marsh is in an advanced phase of restoration.     

BAYESIAN MODELS OF FORECASTED TIME SERIES1

Bayesian Processor of Forecasts (BPF) combines a prior distribution, which describes the natural uncertainty about the realization of a hydrologic process, with a likelihood function, which describes the uncertainty in categorical forecasts of that process, and outputs a posterior distribution of the process, conditional upon the forecasts. The posterior distribution provides a means of incorporating uncertain forecasts into optimal decision models. We present fundamentals of building BPF for time series. They include a general formulation, stochastic independence assumptions and their interpretation, computationally tractable models for forecasts of an independent process and a first-order Markov process, and parametric representations for normal-linear processes. An example is shown of an application to the annual time series of seasonal snowmelt runoff volume forecasts.     

GEOLOGIC INFERENCE FROM “FLOW NET” TRANSMISSIVITY DETERMINATION: THREE CASE STUDIES1

A graphical inverse method for determining the regional transmissivity distribution was applied to three field problems. The study areas were the Hanford Site, Washington; the Rocky Mountain Arsenal, Colorado; and the Nevada Test Site, Nevada. This method can aid in flow system conceptualization by revealing the location of bedrock controls for groundwater flow. It is a valuable tool for aiding the hydrogeologist in asking questions about the nature of trends in the pattern of transmissivity values. Quantitative estimates of regional transmissivities can be used as starting points for further parameter refinement. Sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo simulation shows that quantitative estimates of transmissivity can be obtained when measurement error in the hydraulic head does not cause a large error in the hydraulic gradient.     

Groundwater mapping: An analysis of the United States Hydrological Investigation Atlas Series

Groundwater mapping is a critical component of efficient water resource management today. Difficulties arise when highly specialized and complex groundwater data are collected and presented in map form. This is an analysis of the map content and its presentation in the USGS Hydrological Investigation Atlas Series. This analysis reveals the problems to be surmounted in mapping groundwater information. The technical nature of the groundwater data requires special design considerations.     

Evaluation of methods for determining adverse impacts of air pollution on terrestrial ecosystems

Methods used to determine adverse impacts of air pollution on four levels of biological organization of terrestrial ecosystems were evaluated for their use in decision making by federal land managers of class I areas and as guidelines for scientists employed to design field studies in these areas. At the level of the individual, visible injury, biomass, and sulfur uptake were the most often used components; at the population level, natality and mortality; at the community level, diversity; and at the ecosystem level, biogeochemical cycling. Most studies focused on structural responses of individual organisms. These components are relatively sensitive and are easy and inexpensive to measure; however, linkages of these parameters to adverse impacts on populations, communities, or ecosystems are lacking. Measurements of effects of air pollution at the higher levels of organization are confounded by natural variability, long response times, climatic variation, pathogens, and other factors. In addition, the lack of replication and of true control areas creates severe problems for design of monitoring programs and testing of hypotheses concerning effects.     

RUNOFF PREDICTION USING REMOTE SENSING IMAGERY1

ABSTRACT: Percent imperviousness is an important parameter in modeling the urban rainfall-runoff process and is usually determined using manual methods such as random sampling or conventional accounting methods. In this study two computerized methods are used for estimating the percent imperviousness of urban watersheds using high altitude remote sensing imagery. These methods include the Laser Image Processing Scanner and the Video-Tape Camera system. Imperviousness is directly estimated in the former method while in the latter it is estimated as a function of the statistics of the responses on emulsions of the imagery. The percent imperviousness computed by utilizing remote sensing imagery was used with the conceptual models of rainfall-runoff models. The models were applied to four urban watersheds and the runoff prediction results indicate that imperviousness determined by using remote sensing imagery was as accurate as that obtained by the manual methods, and that the use of remote sensing imagery requires significantly less time and money.     

UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS OF BMP EFFECTWENESS FOR CONTROLLING NITROGEN FROM URBAN NONPOINT SOURCES1

ABSTRACT: The effectiveness of urban Best Management Practices (BMPs) in achieving the No-Net-Increase Policy (NNTP), a policy designed to limit nonpoint nitrogen loading to Long Island Sound (US), is analyzed. A unit loading model is used to simulate annual nitrogen exported from the Norwalk River watershed (Connecticut) under current and future conditions. A probabilistic uncertainty analysis is used to incorporate uncertainty in nitrogen export coefficients and BMP nitrogen removal effectiveness. The inclusion of uncertainty in BMP effectiveness and nitrogen export coefficients implies that additional BMPs, or BMPs with a greater effectiveness in nitrogen removal, will be required to achieve the NNIP. Even though including uncertainty leads to an increase in BMP implementation rates or BMP effectiveness, this type of analysis provides the decision maker with a more realistic assessment of the likelihood that implementing BMPs as a management strategy will be successful. Monte Carlo simulation results indicate that applying BMPs to new urban developments alone will not be sufficient to achieve the NNIP since BMPs are not 100 percent effective in removing the increase in nitrogen caused by urbanization. BMPs must also be applied to selected existing urban areas. BMPs with a nitrogen removal effectiveness of 40–60 percent, probably the highest level of removal that can be expected over an entire watershed, must be applied to at least 75 percent of the existing urban area to achieve the NNIP This high rate of application is not likely to be achieved in urbanized watersheds in the LIS watershed; therefore, additional point source control will be necessary to achieve the NNIP