大尺度生态干扰风险评估技术方法及应用研究

为实现大尺度生态干扰高风险区域的快速、有效识别,从生态易损性、干扰易达性和资源易引性三个方面选取了9个指标,构建了生态干扰风险评估指标体系和评估模型,形成了完整的大尺度生态干扰评估技术与方法.利用该技术方法,本文评估分析了全国国土空间生态干扰风险状况、空间分布格局及其成因,并结合2017~2019年全国自然保护区人类活动监测数据和《全国主体功能区规划》中生态脆弱性评价结果对生态干扰风险评估结果进行了精度分析.结果显示：超过90%的自然保护区人类活动都集中在评估得到的中高风险区域;全国生态干扰风险主要以中风险为主、低风险次之、再次是较低风险、较高和高风险区域面积最少;其中较高和高风险区域主要分布在我国中西部和东北部的秦岭、祁连山、三江源和内蒙古草原等区域,生态干扰风险空间分布格局与生态系统结构与功能状况、地形与交通条件、资源潜力等因素具有较强相关性.     

HMX基含铝炸药低易损性能测试研究

为探讨炸药低易损性的测试方法,系统研究以奥克托金(HMX)为基的含铝炸药的低易损性能(LOVA)。基于美军标《非核弹药危险评估试验标准》、北约《不敏感弹药评估和试验方法》和国内相关试验方法,通过开展慢烤、快烤、射流撞击、12.7 mm子弹撞击、12.7 mm破片撞击和殉爆等6项标准试验,从样品残余状态、弹体损坏状态、验证板破损状态、冲击波超压和爆炸场温度等方面综合评价药剂的易损性。结果表明:HMX基含铝炸药对外界多种刺激不敏感,可承受较高的过载,能满足大多数高性能战斗部装药要求,测试方法的可行性被验证。     

Assessment of Aquifer Vulnerability in an Agricultural Area in Spain Using the DRASTIC Model

The assessment of aquifer vulnerability is a very important task, especially in agricultural areas because the quality and availability of groundwater affects both the sustainability of agriculture and the quality of life. In this study, an integrated approach is considered, with the use of the generic and agricultural DRASTIC models as well as a geographic information system (GIS), to assess groundwater vulnerability in the agricultural area of Barrax, in the province of Albacete, in Spain. Seven parameters—depth to water, net recharge, aquifer media, soil media, topography, impact of vadose zone media, and hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer (DRASTIC)—have been considered as weighted layers to enable an accurate groundwater risk mapping. The results of the generic DRASTIC model indicated very low vulnerability to contamination for Barrax groundwater due to limited urban and industrial development in the wider area. However, agricultural activities impose pressure to groundwater resources and the results of the agricultural DRASTIC model show that 6.86% of the study area is characterized by very high, 2.29% by high, 47.28% by medium, 38.28% by low, and the remaining 5.29% by no vulnerability to groundwater contamination. The distribution of nitrate concentration in groundwater in the area under study is quite well correlated with the agricultural DRASTIC vulnerability index. Sensitivity analysis was also performed to acknowledge statistical uncertainty in the estimation of each parameter used, to assess its impact, and thus to identify the most critical parameters that require further investigation. Depth to water and impact of vadose zone are the parameters that had the most noticeable impact on the generic DRASTIC vulnerability index followed by the soil media and topography. In contrast, the agricultural DRASTIC method is more sensitive to the removal of the depth to water parameter followed by the topography and the soil media parameters.     

西南地区1959—1961年三年自然灾害分析

该文以丰富而翔实的资料就西南地区１９５９～１９６１年三年自然灾害,特别是旱灾的灾情、灾情特点、灾害损失、灾害原因及其经验教训进行了论述．     

基于RS与GIS的长江三角洲生态环境脆弱性综合评价

使用空间主成分分析法构建评价指标体系,采用层次分析法确定指标权重,结合遥感数据与地理信息系统软件,对长江三角洲生态环境脆弱性进行了综合评价,并对脆弱性成因进行了分析. 结果表明,长江三角洲生态环境极度和重度脆弱区主要分布在其中部的太湖流域和浙江中西部,占整个研究区的20.10%;轻度和中度脆弱区遍布于整个研究区,占55.25%;微度脆弱区主要分布在江苏北部和浙江东部,占24.65%. 总体来看,长江三角洲大部分区域的生态环境属轻度和中度脆弱. 影响长江三角洲生态环境脆弱性的自然因素有≥35 ℃日数、旱涝分布、海拔高度、归一化植被指数（NDVI）年累加值、景观多样性指数和土壤侵蚀强度;人为因素有人均耕地面积、人均水资源、人均废水排放量、人均废气排放量、化肥施用强度、土地利用变化、“三废”综合利用产品产值、人口密度和GDP. 极度和重度脆弱区生态环境的主要特征是自然灾害发生频率大、资源匮乏、污染强度大、土壤侵蚀严重和生物多样性低.      

Vulnerability and resilience to climate change in Sorsogon City,the Philippines: learning from an ordinary city?

Sorsogon City is a rapidly urbanising coastal area in the Philippines. Its location, combined with a rapidly changing and growing urban fabric, leaves it vulnerable to both incremental climate change and associated extreme weather events. In this paper, UN-HABITAT data are used to draw out the climate change vulnerabilities and policy responses in Sorsogon City. Vulnerability “hotspots” highlight the spatial intersection of socio-economic justice concerns, particularly in terms of vulnerability to increased cyclone activity. We discuss vulnerabilities of Sorsogon City and its citizens to climate change and measures undertaken through various social, environmental and technical systems and interventions to increase resilience. The paper also attempts to unpick the relationship between the neat, concise reported city and the complexities of urban life using the Sorsogon experiment to consider the limitations of such approaches to governing climate change. We group these under four headings: social simplification in the absence of data; over-governance (and under-representation); quick wins versus strategic investment; and stretching the ecological and vulnerability footprints of the city. The experience of Sorsogon City is then extended to reflect on issues of governance and planning in other Asian coastal cities.     

Integration of the Pesticide Impact Rating Index with a Geographic Information System for the Assessment of Pesticide Impact on Water Quality

The pesticide impact rating index (PIRI) has been integrated with a Geographic Information System (GIS) to enable regional assessment of pesticide impact on groundwater and surface water resources. The GIS version of PIRI (PIRI-GIS) was used to assess the impact of pre-planting atrazine use in the pine plantations on the Gnangara Mound, Western Australia. The impact on groundwater was found to be spatially variable, mainly dependent on soil type and depth to groundwater, because land use variables were spatially constant. Areas with the greatest impact on groundwater were those where the soil had a low sorption capacity for atrazine. Knowledge of the spatial distribution of the sorption coefficient based on organic carbon (K _oc) for atrazine was found to significantly improve the results from PIRI-GIS. Average values for K _oc (i.e. based on overseas data) were too low for most of the local soil types, resulting in a general overestimation of pesticide impact on groundwater resources, but an underestimation of impact in areas that should be of greatest concern (i.e. where the soil has a low sorption capacity for atrazine).     

The role of community-based watershed development in reducing farmers’ vulnerability to climate change and variability in the northwestern highlands of Ethiopia

ABSTRACT

Community-based watershed development (CBWD) has been implemented in Ethiopia since the last three decades. However, the benefits of these watershed development interventions for climate change adaptation are not well documented. This study, therefore, assesses the contributions of CBWD in reducing farmers’ vulnerability to the impacts of climate change and variability in the northwestern highlands of Ethiopia. Data were collected from systematically selected 157 households using questionnaire. The questionnaire consists of questions on climate, ecosystem and households’ livelihood capital. Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) and Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change Livelihood Vulnerability Index (IPCC-LVI) methods were used to generate vulnerability indices. Vulnerability indices computed for three conserved watersheds were compared with one non-conserved watershed using one-way ANOVA test. LVI score for ecosystem related indicators was significantly low for Adef Wuha compared to the non-conserved watershed. Similarly, LVI scores generated from agriculture, wealth and social indicators were low for Tija Baji and Guansa watersheds. On the other hand, the IPCC-LVI result did not show significant differences in exposure; however, sensitivity scores of conserved watersheds were significantly lower compared to the non-conserved. The adaptive capacities of two conserved watersheds (Guansa and Tija Baji) were also significantly lower as compared to the non-conserved. The overall (composite) vulnerability of watersheds generated from both methods (LVI and IPCC-LVI) showed that the conserved watersheds were less vulnerable to climate change compared to the non-conserved. The findings suggest that CBWD is an important strategy to reduce vulnerability of smallholder farmers to the ongoing and future climate change.