1995年中国主要气象灾害综述

１９９５年，中国气象灾害十分频繁，尤其是部分地区的旱涝灾害相当严重，给工农业生产和人民生命财产造成了巨大损失。本文对年内发生的干旱、洪涝、台风、风雹、雪灾、冻害等几种主要气象灾害的发生特点和影响进行了分析和评述。     

近40年华南地区旱涝变化特征

本文以华南地区１９５１～１９９０年４１个代表站的逐月降水资料序列，采用各时段的降水距平百分率和累积频率来分析近４０年来降水变化特征和旱涝年的变化趋势．并通过功率谱分析的方法找出该地区降水的主要变化周期。     

广西旱涝特征及减灾对策

本文通过对广西30年来旱涝发生规律的分析,指出广西旱涝灾害是严重的,具有明显的灾害特征,并根据广西旱涝灾害特征及具体情况,提出了减灾对策,对治旱和治涝分别提出了具体措施。     

中原地区旱涝等级预测──利用游程理论和王邨重建的2232a降水距平资料

本文采用王重建的２２３２ａ降水长序列运用Ｍａｒｋｏｖ过程理论分析了中原各地区旱涝等级的概率特征；定义了净旱涝历时、净旱涝烈度、平均净旱涝烈度参量，并用之建立了中原中心区降水的丰枯段等级预测模式。为中原地区旱涝分析和预测提供了理论依据。     

毁林与汉代居延垦区的衰落

本文根据历史史料，阐明了汉代居延垦区由兴旺发达到衰落的历史原因。进一步说明了乱破滥伐森林带来的恶果。开发大自然必须遵循自然规律，切不可盲目蛮干，毫无克制。     

城市突发公共安全事件人员相对脆弱性研究

设计了基于人员相对脆弱性判断和经验正交函数分解的城市突发事件人员相对脆弱性研究方法,以河南省焦作市为例,将城市划分为8个风险区,选择20项脆弱性影响因子,首先对每个脆弱性因子在8个风险区的人员脆弱性构造判断矩阵,然后以判断矩阵为基础进一步构造人员相对脆弱性矩阵,最后用经验正交函数方法研究突发事件人员相对脆弱性,分析突发事件人员脆弱性影响因子的区域差异,探讨了脆弱性因子和风险区之间的组合特征及变化规律,为城市人员脆弱性的研究提供一种新的思路,并为突发事件人员脆弱性的治理提供科学依据。     

Assessing coastal vulnerability to climate change: comparing segmentation at global and regional scales

Recent concerns about potential climate-change effects on coastal systems require the application of vulnerability assessment tools in order to define suitable adaptation strategies and improve coastal zone management effectiveness. In fact, while various research efforts were devoted to evaluate coastal vulnerability to climate change on a national to global level, fewer applications were carried out so far to develop more comprehensive and site-specific vulnerability assessments suitable to plan possible adaptation measures at the regional scale. In this respect, specific indicators are needed to address climate-change-related issues for coastal zones and to identify vulnerable areas at the regional level. Two sets of coastal vulnerability indicators were selected, one for regional and one for global studies, respectively, concerning the same features of coastal systems, including topography and slope, geomorphological characteristics, presence and distribution of wetlands and vegetation cover, density of coastal population and number of coastal inhabitants. The proposed set of indicators for the regional scale was chosen taking into account the availability of environmental and territorial data for the whole coastal area of the Veneto region and was based on site-specific datasets characterized by a spatial resolution appropriate for a regional analysis. Moreover, a GIS-based segmentation procedure was applied to divide the coastline into linear segments, homogeneous in terms of vulnerability to climate change and sea-level rise at the regional scale. This approach allowed to divide the Veneto shoreline into 140 segments with an average length of about 1 km, while the global scale approach identified four coastal segments with an average length of about 66 km. The performed comparison indicated how the more detailed approach adopted at the regional scale is essential to understand and manage the complexities of the specific study area. In fact, the 25-m DEM employed at the regional scale provided a more accurate differentiation of the coastal area's elevation and thus of coastal susceptibility to the inundation risks, compared to the 1-km DEM used at the global level. Moreover, at the regional level the use of a 1:20,000 geomorphological map allowed to differentiate the unique landform class detected at the global level (e.g., fluvial plain) in a variety of more detailed coastal typologies (e.g., open coast eroding sandy shores backed by bedrock) characterized by a different sensitivity to climate change and sea-level rise. Accordingly, the information provided by regional indicators can support decision-makers in improving the management of coastal resources by considering the potential impacts of climate change and in the definition of appropriate actions to reduce inundation risks, to avoid the potential loss of valuable wetlands and vegetation and to plan the nourishment of sandy beaches subject to erosion processes.     

中国粮食安全系统脆弱性评价及其驱动机制分析

从粮食安全系统的视角出发,运用VSD的脆弱性分析框架,从暴露性、敏感性、适应能力三个层面构建了中国粮食安全脆弱性评价指标体系,采用主成分分析方法对1991-2015年中国粮食安全脆弱性的暴露性、敏感性、适应能力进行定量分析,并探究了中国粮食安全脆弱性变化的总体趋势及其驱动因子。研究结果表明：（1）暴露性指数呈现出2阶段下降特征,年均下降0.121;敏感性指数呈现出快速上升和基本稳定的两阶段变化特征;适应能力指数则一直上升,年均提高0.117。（2）1991-2015年粮食安全系统脆弱性指数整体呈现下降趋势,表明中国粮食安水平有了明显提高;其变化过程可划分为1991-1999年、2000-2003年和2004-2015年三个阶段,第一、二阶段粮食安全水平的总体提高是基于“吃饱”水平上的提高,而第三阶段是基于“吃好”水平上的提高。（3）人均GDP、城镇化水平和城乡居民人均可支配收入四个因子共同驱动中国粮食安全脆弱性的变化,2000-2015年的第二阶段四因子对粮食安全脆弱性的驱动作用明显小于1991-1999的第一阶段,且第一驱动因子由第一阶段的农村居民人均可支配收入转变为第二阶段的人均GDP和城镇居民可支配收入。     

Understanding the interacting factors that influence social vulnerability: a case study of the 2016 central Italy earthquake

This paper seeks to identify those areas that proved socially vulnerable to the earthquake that struck central Italy on 24 August 2016. The study involved four key steps. First, six relevant social vulnerability indicators were selected, based on previous conclusions in the literature. Second, the indicators were mapped using the inverse distance weighted interpolation method. Third, social vulnerability was assessed according to a spatial combination of the indicators. Fourth, in order to build a heterogeneity map, another approach was employed to represent the spatial variability of social vulnerability and to provide additional information on the synergistic contributions of the indicators. The results indicate that age and accessibility indicators affect the entire region under review, with highly vulnerable zones being close to small historical centres. These findings will be useful to governments, policymakers, and stakeholders with regard to implementing vulnerability mitigation strategies in Italian territories that are highly susceptible to earthquake hazards.     

Disaster studies inside out

Disaster studies is faced with a fascinating anomaly: frequently it claims to be critical and innovative, as suggested by the so‐called vulnerability paradigm that emerged more than 40 years ago, yet often it is perpetuating some of the core and problematic tenets of the hazard paradigm that we were asked to challenge initially. This paper interrogates why such an anomaly persists. In so doing, it employs Antonio Gramsci's concept of hegemony to unpack why disaster studies is still dominated by Western epistemologies and scholars that perpetuate an orientalist view of disasters. Ultimately, it suggests a research agenda for the 40 years to come, which builds on the importance of local researchers analysing local disasters using local epistemologies, especially in the non‐Western world. Such subaltern disaster studies are to be fuelled by increasing consciousness of the need to resist the hegemony of Western scholarship and to relocate disaster studies within the realm of its original political agenda.