Critical considerations for future action during the second commitment period: A small islands' perspective

If the objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is to be achieved, Parties must commit themselves to meeting meaningful long‐term targets that, based on current knowledge, would minimize the possibility of irreversible climate change. Current indications are that a global mean temperature rise in excess of 2–3 °C would enhance the risk of destabilizing the climate system as we know it, and possibly lead to catastrophic change such as a shutdown of the deep ocean circulation, and the disintegration of the West Arctic Ice Sheet. Observations have shown that for many small island developing States (SIDS), life‐sustaining ecosystems such as coral reefs, already living near the limit of thermal tolerance, are highly climate‐sensitive, and can suffer severe damage from exposure to sea temperatures as low as 1 °C above the seasonal maximum. Other natural systems (e.g., mangroves) are similarly susceptible to relatively low temperature increases, coupled with small increments of sea level rise. Economic and social sectors, including agriculture and human health, face similar challenges from the likely impacts of projected climate change. In light of known thresholds, this paper presents the view that SIDS should seek support for a temperature cap not exceeding 1.5–2.0 °C above the pre‐industrial mean. It is argued that a less stringent post‐Kyoto target would frustrate achievement of the UNFCCC objective. The view is expressed that all countries which emit significant amounts of greenhouse gases should commit to binding reduction targets in the second commitment period, but that targets for developing countries should be less stringent than those agreed for developed countries. Such an arrangement would be faithful to the principles of equity and would ensure that the right of Parties to attain developed country status would not be abrogated.     

岷江上游生态脆弱性驱动力分析

作为长江上游重要的生态屏障,岷江上游是典型的生态环境脆弱区。选取了测度岷江上游生态脆弱性的20个指标、25个样本年的2500个数据,采用逆向测度法构建了岷江上游生态脆弱性的测度指标体系,运用因子分析法得到了影响岷江上游的六大驱动因子:生态环境背景状况、人口承载与结构水平状况、水土流失状况、土地垦殖与利用状况、产业结构水平状况、投资水平与结构状况,为岷江上游生态脆弱区恢复重建及经济社会发展提供了科学依据。     

1976 Illinois drought: Evidence for improved water quality

During 1976, Illinois experienced a mild drought, of i ntensity equivalent to the once in 5 years frequency. It was anticipated that the drought would result in deteriorated water quality because dilution of point source discharges would be diminished. Furthermore, because productivity in Illinois streams is light limited, reduced runoff should result in clearer streams, higher algae levels, and greater variability in dissolved oxygen levels. In spite of these expectations, both chemical and biologic data showed that water quality in 1976 was appreciably better than that before 1975. The information provided by the Illinois water quality index (Janardan and Schaeffer 1977) coincides with biologic analyses of benthic invertebrates. The index supports and supplements the biologic data and provides a means for quantifying and integrating chemical and biologic data.The results of this study showed that the drought had little, if any, effect on statewide water quality. Although the magnitude of the drought varied across the state, water quality remained unchanged between 1975 and 1976. This may have reflected the ability of unpolluted systems to adjust to natural variations or have been an indication that there were offsetting statewide gains in pollution control in 1976 or that uncharacterized, broad-based phenomena were operating in stream ecology, or that combinations of these were in effect.Based on presentations before the American Water Resources Assocition, Illinois Section, Chicago, Illinois, June 10–11, 1977.     

Book Reviews

Books reviewed:
Thomas Drabek, Disaster-induced Employee Evacuation
Hugh Brammer, Agricultural Disaster Management in Bangladesh
Boris Porfiriev, Disaster Planning and Emergency Management in Russia
Patrick Bracken and Celia Petty, eds, Rethinking the Trauma of War
R. Cohen and F. M. Deng, eds, The Forsaken People: Case Studies of the Internally Displaced
Tom Trier and Lars Funch Hansen, eds, Conflict and Forced Displacement in the Caucasus: Perspectives, Challenges and Responses     

Effects of Conversion of Dry Tropical Forest to Agricultural Mosaic on Herpetofaunal Assemblages

Abstract: We explored the impact of forest conversion to agricultural mosaic on anuran, lizard, snake, and turtle assemblages of Neotropical dry forests. Over 2 years, we sampled 6 small watersheds on the west coast of Mexico, 3 conserved and 3 disturbed. The disturbed watersheds were characterized by a mosaic of pastures and cultivated fields (corn, beans, squash) intermingled with patches of different successional stages of dry forest. In each watershed, we conducted 11 diurnal and nocturnal time‐constrained searches in 10 randomly established plots. We considered vulnerability traits of species in relation to habitat modification. Eighteen anuran, 18 lizard, 23 snake, and 3 turtle species were recorded. Thirty‐six species (58%) occurred in both forest conditions, and 14 (22%) and 12 species (19%) occurred only in the conserved and disturbed sites, respectively. Assemblages responded differently to disturbance. Species richness, diversity, and abundance of lizards were higher in disturbed forests. Anuran diversity and species richness were lower in disturbed forest but abundance was similar in both forest conditions. Diversity, richness, and abundance of turtles were lower in disturbed forest. The structure and composition of snake assemblages did not differ between forest conditions. We considered species disturbance sensitive if their abundance was significantly less in disturbed areas. Four anuran (22%), 2 lizard (11%), and 3 turtle (100%) species were sensitive to disturbance. No snake species was sensitive. The decline in abundance of disturbance‐sensitive species was associated with the reduction of forest canopy cover, woody stem cover, roots, and litter‐layer ground cover. Anuran species with small body size and direct embryonic development were especially sensitive to forest disturbance. An important goal for the conservation of herpetofauna should be the determination of species traits associated with extinction or persistence in agricultural mosaics.     

Mapping social vulnerability to natural hazards in Italy: A suitable tool for risk mitigation strategies

Italy is one of the European countries that are most heavily exposed to a wide range of natural hazards, which might cause large economic losses. In this context, the assessment of social vulnerability has an important role for evaluating the capacity of a community to prepare for, respond to and recover from disasters. However there are currently no published studies analysing social vulnerability and its spatial distribution in Italy. Within this framework, this paper aims to apply a proven method for assessing social vulnerability at the national scale, while considering the contribution of the socioeconomic and demographic factors that affect the Italian population. The proposed methodology is based on the Hazard-of-Place Model approach, and uses free and open source software applications (FOSS). Specifically, we selected significant components through Principal Component Analysis and derived their spatial distribution. Using component scores, we derived a social vulnerability index, evaluated its geographic distribution, and performed a cluster analysis on its spatial variation. The analysis identified different spatial patterns across Italy, providing useful information for identifying the communities most likely to experience negative natural disaster impacts due to their socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. This research represents an important contribution to improve the potentiality of risk mitigation strategies and in designing risk custom-made policies.     

The water vulnerability of metro and megacities: An investigation of structural determinants

Urban areas are becoming increasingly subject to and vulnerable to water‐related natural disasters. Urban areas are a kind of socio‐ecological system wherein the human development dynamics co‐evolve with the natural dynamics. Most of the literature is focused on the impact of natural disasters on human development; we evaluate the impacts of human development on natural disasters and present an analysis of this phenomenon in the context of megacities. The approach is exploratory and begins with the construction of a database on the 595 existing megacities in the world. Multifactor analysis is then used to determine the main characteristics of these megacities. Finally, three structural components (maturity, anthropization and centrality) are identified and then correlated with data on water‐related hazards, distinguishing groups of cities according to their structure and factors of vulnerability to water‐related risks.     

New York City Environmental Justice Alliance Waterfront Justice Project

This paper reviews key challenges and opportunities addressed by the New York City Environmental Justice Alliance's (NYC-EJA) Waterfront Justice Project, a citywide campaign to promote climate resilience and sustainability in urban industrial waterfront communities of New York City. NYC-EJA is a non-profit membership-driven network linking grassroots organisations from low-income neighbourhoods and communities of colour in their struggle for environmental justice. The Waterfront Justice Project is documenting community vulnerability in the context of climate change impacts, sources of industrial pollution, and demographic and socio-economic trends. This campaign is enabling community-based organisations, environmental justice communities, city planners, local and state government agencies, local business-owners, and other stakeholders to work in partnership to achieve community resilience while advocating for local jobs and promoting best practices in pollution prevention. New York City's waterfront policies ease the siting and clustering of public infrastructure, water pollution control plants, waste transfer stations, energy facilities, and heavy manufacturing uses in six areas designated as Significant Maritime and Industrial Areas (SMIAs). The SMIAs are located in environmental justice communities, largely low-income communities and communities of colour, in the South Bronx, Brooklyn, Queens, and Staten Island. New York City's local waterfront land use and zoning policies create cumulative risk exposure not only to residents and workers in the host waterfront communities, but also, in the event of storm surge or sea-level rise, to neighbouring, upland communities.     

黄河流域生态环境脆弱性评价、空间分析及预测

生态环境脆弱性是制约经济可持续、高质量发展的重要因素。以2005—2018年黄河流域73个城市为研究对象,构建了黄河流域生态环境脆弱性的评价指标体系,采用主成分分析计算了黄河流域生态环境脆弱指数,并依据自然断点法将评价结果分为极度脆弱、重度脆弱、中度脆弱、轻度脆弱、微度脆弱五类。进一步通过空间相关分析揭示了黄河流域生态环境脆弱性的时空演变特征,并利用CA-Markov模型对黄河流域2025年生态环境脆弱性进行了预测。结果表明：（1）黄河上、中、下游生态环境脆弱性分别表现“低—中—高”的分布特征,且生态环境脆弱性变化趋势存在区别：上游虽差异较大但波动相似,中游波动方向相反,下游在2016年之后整体呈下降趋势。（2）黄河流域生态环境脆弱性存在空间相关性,上游呈现低—低聚集,下游呈现高—高聚集,中游空间相关性不显著。（3）预测2025年黄河流域中游地区重度脆弱有所扩张,下游地区极度脆弱向中心区域明显收缩。黄河流域生态环境的治理与保护并非一朝一夕之事,也并非某一流域单独能够完成的,黄河上、中、下游要根据不同的自然条件制定与之相适宜、符合整体发展需要的治理与保护措施。     

贫困退出背景下返贫脆弱性评价——融合区域与个体的新视角

精准识别返贫脆弱性,预防和化解返贫风险是“后扶贫时代”的工作重点。基于区域与个体尺度融合的新视角,运用BP神经网络法、熵值法和偏相关分析法对六盘山、秦巴山和大别山三大集中连片特困区进行返贫脆弱性评价与影响因素分析。研究发现：（1）三大集中连片特困区返贫脆弱度大致呈现由西向东递减的空间格局;（2）三个典型县区域和个体返贫脆弱性评价结果均显示古浪县>新县>栾川县;（3）高返贫风险县域中,高生态暴露度特征最为显著,而高返贫风险家庭中,生计动力不足特征最为明显;（4）区域返贫脆弱性主导因子为自然环境禀赋和经济发展水平,个体返贫脆弱性主导因子则为家庭劳动力综合素质、家庭收入、生计来源多样性、家庭成员健康状况和婚姻成本等。