Dynamic-risk-informed safety barrier management: An application to cost-effective barrier optimization based on data from multiple sources

An integrated approach for performance assessment and management of safety barriers in a systemic manner is needed concerning the prevention and mitigation of major accidents in chemical process industries. Particularly, the effects of safety barriers on system risk reduction should be assessed in a dynamic manner to support the decision-making on safety barrier establishments and improvements. A simulation approach, named Simulink-based Safety Barrier Modeling (SSBM), is proposed in this paper to conduct dynamic risk assessment of chemical facilities with the consideration of the degradation of safety barriers. The main functional features of the SSBM include i) the basic model structures of SSBM can be determined based on bow-tie diagrams, ii) multiple data (periodic proof test data, continuous condition-monitoring data, and accident precursor data) may be combined to update barrier failure probabilities and initiating event probabilities, iii) SSBM is able to handle uncertainty propagation in probabilistic risk assessment by using Monte Carlo simulations, and iv) cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) and optimization algorithms are integrated to support the decision-making on safety barrier establishments and improvements. An illustrative case study is demonstrated to show the procedures of applying the SSBM on dynamic risk-informed safety barrier management and validate the feasibility of implementing the SSBM for cost-effective safety barrier optimization.     

Dynamic risk assessment for underground gas storage facilities based on Bayesian network

Loss of the underground gas storage process can have significant effects, and risk analysis is critical for maintaining the integrity of the underground gas storage process and reducing potential accidents. This paper focuses on the dynamic risk assessment method for the underground gas storage process. First, the underground gas storage process data is combined to create a database, and the fault tree of the underground gas storage facility is built by identifying the risk factors of the underground gas storage facility and mapping them into a Bayesian network. To eliminate the subjectivity in the process of determining the failure probability level of basic events, fuzzy numbers are introduced to determine the prior probability of the Bayesian network. Then, causal and diagnostic reasoning is performed on the Bayesian network to determine the failure level of the underground gas storage facilities. Based on the rate of change of prior and posterior probabilities, sensitivity and impact analysis are combined to determine the significant risk factors and possible failure paths. In addition, the time factor is introduced to build a dynamic Bayesian network to perform dynamic assessment and analysis of underground gas storage facilities. Finally, the dynamic risk assessment method is applied to underground gas storage facilities in depleted oil and gas reservoirs. A dynamic risk evaluation model for underground gas storage facilities is built to simulate and validate the dynamic risk evaluation method based on the Bayesian network. The results show that the proposed method has practical value for improving underground gas storage process safety.     

Influence of sewage culvert cover plate thickness on dynamic response and damage of the cover plate under gas explosion

In order to address the risk of combustible gas explosions in sewage culverts, a numerical model was established using ANSYS/LS-DYNA software. The model consisted of a culvert and a cover plate, and was used to study the effect of cover plate thickness (ranging from 0.08 m to 0.12 m) on the dynamic response and damage of the structure under explosive loads. The results indicated that, during the loading negative pressure stage, the equivalent stress peak value of the central monitoring unit of the cover plate first increased and then decreased with increasing cover plate thickness. Additionally, the maximum principal stress peak value first decreased and then increased, while the maximum shear stress peak value first increased and then decreased. During the loading positive pressure stage, the maximum principal strain peak value of the monitoring unit decreased overall with increasing cover plate thickness. However, the equivalent plastic strain peak value initially increased and then decreased gradually. The equivalent strain indicated that plastic damage occurred in the cover plate. Beyond a thickness of 0.11 m, increasing the cover thickness did not appear to enhance its resistance to plastic damage. The damage analysis revealed that as cover plate thickness increased, the peak displacement and velocity of the monitoring unit continued to decrease, while the overall stability and explosive resistance of the cover plate increased. Additionally, the number of damaged fragments decreased. However, once the cover plate thickness reached 0.11 m, the bonding performance of the reinforced concrete structure had been fully developed, increasing the thickness of the cover plate no longer had a significant impact on the explosive resistance of the cover plate.     

Activity maintenance of the excised branches and a case study of NO2 exchange between the atmosphere and P. nigra branches

The efficient maintenance of the activity of excised branches is the powerful guarantee to accurately determine gas exchange flux between the detached branches of tall trees and the atmosphere. In this study, the net photosynthetic rate(NPR) of the excised branches and branches in situ were measured simultaneously by using two photosynthetic instruments to characterize the activity of the excised branches of Phyllostachys nigra. The ratio of normalized NPR of excised branches to NPR in situ was used to assess the photosynthetic activity of detached branches. Based on photosynthetic activity, an optimal hydroponics protocol for maintaining activity of excised P. nigra branches was presented:1/8 times the concentration of Gamborg B5 vitamin mixture with p H = 6. Under the best cultivation protocol, photosynthetic activity of excised P. nigra branches could be maintained more than 90% within 6 hr in the light intensity range of 200–2000 μmol/(m2·sec) and temperature range of 13.4–28.7°C. The nitrogen dioxide(NO2) flux differences between in situ and in vitro branches and the atmosphere were compared using double dynamic chambers.Based on the maintenance method of excised branches, the NO2 exchange flux between the excised P. nigra branches and the atmosphere(from-1.01 to-2.72 nmol/(m2·sec) was basically consistent with between the branches in situ and the atmosphere(from-1.12 to-3.16 nmol/(m2 sec)) within 6 hr. Therefore, this study provided a feasible protocol for in vitro measurement of gas exchange between tall trees and the atmosphere for a period of time.     

防灾工程动态投资决策分析

本文应用最优控制理论对作者在文献[1]中所建立的两个防灾工程多变量动态投资决策模型进行了求解和理论分析。在一些基本符合工程实际的假设下得到了模型的解析解以及一些有意义的结果。     

动态膜压法测定江、污混合水体中有机物含量的探讨

用双驱动动态膜压仪测定江、污混合水中有机物含量。通过测定白龙港污水和长江水混合后的膜压和滞回环面积，用它们与相应的经典法CODCr作图，获得了滞回环面积和CODCr之间良好地线性关系，表明用动态膜压法可快速测定混合水中的有机物含量，不须加任何试剂，不会产生二次污染。同时，对实验结果进行了初步的机理探讨。     

防灾工程动态投资决策方法初探

本文提出了防灾工程的抗力、灾损度和灾害的灾度、灾害势以及动态决策准则等概念,基于现代控制理论,初步建立了防灾工程动态投资决策的一般方法,并对其进行了理论分析和研究。这里的决策包括防灾工程的初始投资(或设防水平)决策及其防灾规划期(或寿命期)内的防灾减灾维护投资(或维护水平)决策.文中还给出了算例,对上述方法进行了应用。算例结果表明,本文提出的防灾工程动态投资决策方法具有比较显著的经济效益。     

铁路示范路段滑坡动态分析系统

本文以成昆线乌斯河-普雄为示范路段,以该段滑坡的发育、分布规律及其对建筑物影响为研究对象;利用开发dBASE、AutoCAD、Idrisi等计算机辅助软件,初步建立了滑坡动态分析系统以实现滑坡特征分析及与环境背景的映射分析,从中揭示出示范段内滑坡发育的控制因素,为开展滑坡致灾预报奠定了基础。     

门式起重机起升动载荷分析

以某工厂门式起重机为研究对象,利用轴套力建模法和编制相应CMD命令文件建立了钢丝绳模型,对部件添加材料属性,并对整机施加相应的约束、载荷和驱动,实现了门式起重机的虚拟样机建模。研究了不同的调速方法对起升动载荷的影响,采用联合仿真法对比分析了串电阻调速和变频调速法对动载荷的影响,为门式起重机的疲劳寿命研究提供数据支撑。     

Scenario derivation and consequence evaluation of dust explosion accident based on dynamic Bayesian network

In order to clarify the correlation between the evolution path of dust explosion accidents and emergency decision-making, and to accurately predict the disaster damage levels of various disaster bearing bodies. This paper extracts 56 key scenario elements from four aspects, namely state, answer, goal and environment, based on the analysis of typical dust explosion accident cases. At the same time, a general scenario evolution path of dust explosion accident is constructed. Using fuzzy number set theory and dynamic Bayes joint probability model, the accurate solution of scenario state probability was realized. With the help of accident cases and dynamic Bayes approach, the dust explosion consequence prediction index system and evaluation criteria were constructed, covering factors such as dust explosion intensity, casualties, direct economic losses, equipment damage, building damage, environmental damage and other factors. A polyethylene wax dust explosion accident in a city of China was used to verify the dust explosion accident scenario evolution model and consequences prediction model. The predicted results were in good agreement with the actual damage of various carriers of the accident, which indicated that the model could be used for dust explosion accident prediction and disaster loss prediction. The research results provided reference and technical support for the prediction of dust explosion accident evolution direction, emergency aid measures decision and deployment, disaster damage prediction and evaluation.