Quantitative sensitivity and reliability analysis of sensor networks for well kick detection based on dynamic Bayesian networks and Markov chain

Kick is considered as an early warning sign to the blowout that is among the most undesired and feared accidents during drilling operations. Kick detection system is commonly used to timely identify the occurrence of a kick. The method commonly used for kick detection relies on the proper selection of monitoring indicators. A kick detection system should not only have very high accuracy but also maintain reliable over a long time. Different from the existing studies focusing on improving the detection accuracy, this paper presents a frame emphasizing on quantitatively analyzing and enhancing the reliability of the kick detection sensor networks. The dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) for the sensor networks is established that employs Markov chain to obtain the reliability degradation of measurement sensors over time. The proposed method is applied and evaluated by case studies to conduct reliability and sensitivity analysis for kick detection sensor networks. The reliability analysis results demonstrate that the proposed method can quantitatively analyze the reliability of a kick detection sensor networks consisting of various sensors over given time periods. The sensitivity analysis results indicate that the proposed method is effective in identifying the critical sensors that have the greatest effect on the reliability of one certain kick detection system. Based on the analysis results, optimized logical combination of sensors of a kick detection system can be achieved. An improved sensor network for the unreliable case was proposed and evaluated.     

斜坡失稳的动力学分析

本文从岩土破坏的本构律出发建议了斜坡失稳的滑动—弱化模式,然后对平面倾斜面、幂函数型滑动面、园弧型滑动面等简单的情形进行了斜坡失稳的动力学分析,得到了滑坡速度分布的表示式:讨论了坡底速度、滑坡止滑位置等问题。     

苍山4.4级地震与相公庄水准短临前兆异常

摘要本文采用逐步回归等方法处理了山东相公庄水准 EW、SN 向1989年1月1日至1990年9月30日的五日均值观测资料。回归分析结果表明:苍山4.4(M_L)级地震前相公庄水准 EW、SN 向均有10天左右的短临前兆异常,异常最大幅值分别为0.84mm和0.42mm,地震发生在异常达最大值的前一天,回归剩余标准差分别为±0.17mm和±0.12mm。据动态灰箱法处理的结果说明:短临异常在月均值上也有一定显示,只是幅度小些。作者认为:距震中50km左右的定点形变台,在一定条件下有可能监测到4级以上地震的短临前兆异常。     

PCrNi3MoVA钢动态再结晶晶粒尺寸的影响因素

此文利用Formastor-Press热模拟试验机研究了Z参数、奥氏体起始晶粒尺寸D_0和应变ε对PCrNi3MoVA铜动态再结晶晶粒尺寸D_(dyn)的影响。通过对试验数据进行分析发现以下规律:①1nD_(dyn)=a+blnZ,②lnD_(dyn)=c+dlnD_0;③lnD_(dyn)=e+flnε 10％≤ε≤40％,其中a、b、c、d、e、f为不同的常数,据此,此文采用线性回归方法获得了上述这些常数的值。     

DANO动态堆肥装置的特性研究

从理论上提出了DANO堆肥反应器的设计参数。利用堆肥热力学的热平衡,对直径小于1.23m的DANO筒,必须采取保温措施,才能达到发酵温度。根据设计参数,研制了实验模型,并研究了反应器特性,分析了物料在DANO筒内的运动特点和停留时间规律。     

城市污水处理厂动态模拟研究

利用活性污泥1号模型。对采用A/O工艺的上海某城市污水处理厂的碳化、硝化、反硝化过程进行计算机动态模拟，结果表明，出水中的TCOD、TN与污水处理厂的出水基本吻合，说明利用活性污泥1号模型对城市污水处理厂进行模拟是可行的。并根据模拟结果建议该厂运行过程中应降低A段的溶解氧。     

崇明东滩候鸟自然保护区的动态变化

在８０年代末期的鸟类及其生境调查研究基础上，正式提出拟建的上海市崇明东滩候鸟自然保护区，５年来随着滩涂的游涨及９０年代初期人工围垦的影响，滩涂自然植被和鸟类的种类，数量，分布也随之有了相应的相应的动态变化。该文在新的调查资料基础上，对崇明东滩鸟类赖以生存地自然植被恢复，候鸟食料的容量分析等作了研究；同时，还论述了崇明候鸟自然保护区的界线范围及其动态变化，以及保护区内部３个功能小区的动态等。     

Synthesis of hierarchical porous carbon with high surface area by chemical activation of(NH4)2C2O4 modified hydrochar for chlorobenzene adsorption

In this work,hydrothermal technique combined with KOH activation were employed to develop a series of porous carbons (NPCK-x) using tobacco stem as a low-cost carbon source and (NH₄)₂C₂O₄ as a novel nitrogen-doping agent.Physicochemical properties of NPCK-x were characterized by Brunauer-Emmett-Teller,field emission scanning electron microscopy,X-ray diffraction,Raman microscope,elemental analysis,and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy.Results showed tha...     

颗粒物吸附乐果的动力学特征

研究了乐果在颗粒物表面上吸附的动力学特征,观察了颗粒物的性质对吸附行为的影响.结果表明,乐果在3种颗粒物上的吸附过程均符合一级动力学规律,其相关系数在0.986 2～0.990 5,达到极显著水平.颗粒物的性质与吸附量相关分析发现,不同颗粒物对乐果的吸附程度是由颗粒物的有机质、粘粒、阳离子交换容量(CEC)和pH等理化特征综合作用的结果.pH对吸附行为影响的实验结果指出,随着体系的pH逐渐增大,颗粒物对乐果的吸附能力增强.     

A dynamic model of mating behavior in digger wasps: the energetics of male-male competition mimic size-dependent thermal constraints

I develop a state-based dynamic model of behavior to demonstrate that size-dependent differences in temperature tolerances are not necessary to account for the activity of small male digger wasps late in the day. In the model, males defend or patrol the nesting area, wait near nests, or feed away from the nesting area depending on time of day, energy reserves and size rank. I assume a large male competitive advantage, so mating opportunities decrease with size rank for territorial or patrolling males and are rare for all waiting males; the costs of patrolling or defense are higher than the costs of waiting. If energy reserves of all males are initially small, all males alternate feeding and territorial or patrolling behavior. If energy reserves are initially large, large males patrol or maintain territories until they risk starvation and leave the area to feed. At this time, smaller males that have conserved their resources by waiting and feeding may defend territories or patrol. I simulate the behavior of three populations representing two species of Microbembex by assuming large initial energy reserves for populations in which males were territorial and small initial reserves for populations in which males patrolled, and then convert the predicted time of activity to temperature using local regressions from field studies. Temporal patterns in the activity of large and small males were similar to those actually observed, and relationships between size and temperature predicted by the model corresponded to most observations and were sometimes positive. Thus, the delayed activity of smaller males does not correspond to activity at higher temperatures and is probably not attributable to size-dependent thermal tolerances, but may represent a temporal displacement of mating activity due to intra-sexual competition and mediated by energetics. The model makes testable predictions on the timing of feeding and depletion of energy reserves in relation to size and initial energy state, and suggests how differences among species may influence the temporal and spatial organization of male mating behavior. Received: 27 February 1997 / Accepted after revision: 26 July 1997