北美自由贸易区和欧盟的区域性环境政策浅析

环境因素逐渐成为影响全球和各国经济的重要因素，以北自由贸易区和欧盟为代表的区域性经济集团在环境态度及政策取向上已日趋一致，在对这２个区域性经济集团的环境制度性安排的特点进行分析后，探讨了在未来可持续增长模式下，世界环境政策发展的趋势；同时也分析了我国应积极采取的对策。     

白洋淀湿地芦苇根际土壤微生物电子传递体系(ETS)活性的研究

微生物电子传递体系(ETS)活性是反映微生物活性的一个重要指标。为了解湿地环境中微生物活性的特征,探讨湿地植物根际土壤微生物活性对湿地生态系统物质循环的影响,以白洋淀湿地典型植物芦苇为研究对象,分析了不同水位条件下芦苇根际土壤微生物ETS活性的季节变化规律。结果表明,根际土壤ETS活性季节变化明显,呈现先上升后下降的趋势。ETS活性在夏季较高,8月前后出现最大值,淹水区、水陆交错区和台地的最大值分别为0.08 mg O_2/(g·h)、0.084 mg O_2/(g·h)、0.13 mg O_2/(g·h),随后逐步下降;在冬季较低,淹水区、水陆交错区和台地的最小值分别为0.027mg O_2/(g·h)、0.037 mg O_2/(g·h)、0.045 mg O_2/(g·h),出现在12月前后,最大值约为最小值的3倍。相关性分析指出其活性变化与气温变化呈显著正相关(p0.01)。不同水位条件下ETS活性从大到小依次为台地、水陆交错区、淹水区。其中,台地区和水陆交错区根际土壤ETS活性与淹水区相比均存在显著差异(p0.01),其活性分别为淹水区的1.8倍和1.2倍。芦苇根际沉积物TN、NH+4及NO_3~-质量比呈现相似的季节变化趋势。最大值出现在6月1日,淹水区、水陆交错区、台地区TN质量比峰值的范围在2.8~3.4 mg/g,NH_4~+质量比峰值的范围在72.0~78.3μg/g,NO_3~-质量比峰值的范围在20.0~28.5μg/g;最小值出现在9—10月,淹水区、水陆交错区、台地区质量比最低值的范围在0.6~1.6 mg/g,NH+4质量比最低值的范围在8.1~15.0μg/g,NO_3~-质量比最低值的范围在5.1~9.7μg/g。其中,水陆交错区ETS活性与土壤中TN和NH+4质量比的相关性极其显著(p0.01),淹水区ETS活性与土壤中NH_4~+质量比相关性极其显著(p0.01),其他条件下ETS活性与土壤中氮素质量比均无显著相关性。由此可见,湿地植物根际土壤ETS活性不仅受到水位和气温变化的影响,还可能与土壤中TN和NH+4含量相关。因此,在评价湿地土壤质量变化时,除考虑土壤微生物量等敏感指标外,还应获得环境因素等其他信息,为正确快速评价土壤微生物群落和土壤质量变化提供参考。     

欧盟碳价影响因素研究及其对中国的启示

作为一项市场创新和政策创新,即将启动的中国全国性碳市场备受国内外关注。为保证其成功建立与平稳发展,相关经验借鉴已刻不容缓,但作为投石问路的7大试点碳市场发展层次不齐,可供参考的模式有限,因此研究全球第一大碳市场——欧盟碳排放交易体系(EU ETS)及其对中国的可参照性尤为迫切;而作为市场是否成熟的风向标,碳价规律性特征的挖掘尤为重要。前期国内外学者分别发现CER价格、原油价格、煤炭价格、天然气价格、欧洲工业指数、联合国气候变化大会、政府政策、极寒天气、暖冬天气、自然灾害、重大事件等多种因素都有可能引起EUA期货价格波动。本研究通过引入MIV-BP神经网络模型,对EU ETS二期和三期的EUA期货价格进行训练和测试,模拟了上述11个因素对EUA价格的影响,弥补了传统计量模型难以同时处理较多变量及不能整合定性与定量变量等缺点。通过对EU ETS二期1 149组和三期775组数据的挖掘,得出了各变量对EUA期货价格的影响程度。其中,二期运行阶段各变量影响程度从大到小排序为:自然灾害COPCER极寒天气Coal重大事件Brent政府政策Stock600Gas暖冬天气;三期运行阶段各变量影响程度从大到小排序为:COPStock600Coal自然灾害极寒天气重大事件政府政策BrentGasCER暖冬天气。最后,本研究对二、三期各变量对碳价影响程度的变化进行了解释,并对中国未来建立全国性碳市场提出了以下四点建议:(1)稳定碳市场参与主体预期;(2)完善核证减排抵消机制,保持政策稳定;(3)配额分配考虑区域差异;(4)建立配额应急机制。     

基于GD_CGE模型的广东省碳排放权交易政策评估

为了评估广东省碳排放权交易制度设计对控制二氧化碳排放及经济发展可能发挥的作用,本文建立GD_CGE模型研究了在碳强度约束目标下碳交易政策的实施效果.首先分析了无减排约束和有减排约束情景下广东宏观经济(GDP)、能源消费总量和碳排放总量的发展趋势;进一步扩展减排约束情景,考察了在全省碳强度减排目标约束下,把电力、水泥、石化、钢铁、造纸、纺织六大部门纳入碳交易体系,并分别按照历史法和潜力法确定行业碳排放约束上限时,实施碳交易政策对宏观经济和能源消费量的影响,模拟了碳市场的交易情况和碳价格.结果表明:在碳强度目标控制下,实施碳交易政策可显著降低部门的减排成本,减小控制碳排放可能对全省GDP的影响,起到了促进广东省低成本节能减排的作用.     

Mitigation of CO2 Emissions from the EU-15 Building Stock. Beyond the EU Directive on the Energy Performance of Buildings (9 pp)

-

Goal Scope and Background. The European Directive on Energy Performance of Buildings which came into force 16 December 2002 will be implemented in the legislation of Member States by 4 January 2006. In addition to the aim of improving the overall energy efficiency of new buildings, large existing buildings will become a target for improvement, as soon as they undergo significant renovation. The building sector is responsible for about 40% of Europe's total end energy consumption and hence this Directive is an important step for the European Union in order that it should reach the level of saving required by the Kyoto Agreement. In this the EU is committed to reduce CO2 emissions relative to the base year of 1990 by 8 per cent, by 2010. But what will be the impact of the new Directive, how large could be the impacts of extending the obligation for energy efficiency retrofitting towards smaller buildings? Can improvement of the insulation offset or reduce the growing energy consumption from the increasing installation of cooling installations? EURIMA, the European Insulation Manufacturers Association and EuroACE, the European Alliance of Companies for Energy Efficiency in Buildings, asked Ecofys to address these questions.

Methods

The effect of the EPB Directive on the emissions associated with the heating energy consumption of the total EU 15 building stock has been examined in a model calculation, using the Built Environment Analysis Model (BEAM), which was developed by Ecofys to investigate energy saving measures in the building stock. The great complexity of the EU-15 building stock had to be simplified by examining five standard buildings with eight insulation standards, which are assigned to building age and renovation status. Furthermore, three climatic regions (cold, moderate, warm) were distinguished for the calculation of the heating energy demand. This gave a basic 210 building types for which the heating energy demand and CO2 emissions from heating were calculated according to the principles of the European Norm EN 832.

Results and Discussion

The model calculations demonstrates that the main contributor to the total heating related CO2 emissions of 725 Mt/a from the EU building stock in 2002 is the residential sector (77%) while the remaining 23% originates from non-residential buildings. In the residential sector, single-family houses represent the largest group responsible for 60% of the total CO2 emissions equivalent to 435 Mt/a.

-

- The technical potential: If all retrofit measures in the scope of the Directive were realised immediately for the complete residential and non-residential building stock the overall CO2 emission savings would add up to 82 Mt/a. An additional saving potential compared to the Directive of 69 Mt/a would be created if the scope of the Directive was extended to cover retrofit measures in multi-family dwellings (200-1000m2) and non-residential buildings smaller than 1000m2 used floor space. In addition including the large group of single-family dwellings would lead to a potential for additional CO2 emission reductions compared to the Directive of 316 Mt/a.

-

- Temporal mobilization of the potential: Calculations based on the building stock as it develops over time with average retrofit rates demonstrated that regulations introduced following the EPB Directive result in a CO2 emissions decrease of 34 Mt/a by the year 2010 compared to the business as usual scenario. Extending the scope of the EPB Directive to all residential buildings (including single and multi-family dwellings), the CO2 emission savings potential over the 'business as usual' scenario could be doubled to 69 Mt/a in the year 2010. This creates an additional saving potential compared to the Directive of 36 Mt/a.

-

- Cooling demand: The analysis demonstrated that in warm climatic zones the cooling demand can be reduced drastically by a combination of lowering the internal heat loads and by improved insulation. With the reduction of the heat loads to a moderate level the cooling demand, e.g. of a terraced house located in Madrid, can be reduced by an additional 85% if the insulation level is improved appropriately.

Conclusions

This study demonstrates that the European Directive on Energy Performance of Buildings will have a significant impact on the CO2 emissions of the European building stock. The main saving potential lies in insulation of the existing building stock. Beyond this, CO2 emissions could, however, be greatly reduced if the scope of the Directive were to be extended to include retrofit of smaller buildings.

Recommendation and Perspective

The reductions should be seen in relation to the remaining gap of 190 Mt CO2 eq. per annum between the current emission levels of EU-15 and the target under the Kyoto-Protocol for the year 2010. The energy and industrial sector will probably contribute only a fraction of this reduction via the newly established EU emissions trading scheme and connected projects under the flexible mechanism. In addition, the traffic sector is likely to continue its growth path leading to a widening of the gap. Thus, there is likely to be considerable pressure on the EU building sector to contribute to the EU climate targets beyond what will be achieved by means of the current EPB Directive. Legislators on the EU and national level are therefore advised to take accelerated actions to tap the very significant emission reduction potentials available in the EU building stock.     

Farm animal welfare policymaking in the European Parliament – a social identity perspective on voting behaviour

ABSTRACT

Sustainable agriculture implies trade-offs with farm animal welfare. Proposals to increase agricultural productivity and ecological sustainability alike, are often linked to intensification, which may restrict animal welfare. Despite the growing importance of farm animal welfare for the alignment of agricultural and environmental policy, determinants of decision-making at the EU level remain unexplored. This article contributes to closing this research gap, broadening our understanding of why policymakers vote for the enactment of animal welfare policies. Applying the Social Identities in the Policy Process (SIPP) perspective we highlight the role of group membership for individual decision-making. By means of a quantitative analysis of voting behaviour in the European Parliament on two animal welfare policies, we show that different identities are salient. The strongest predictor is political group membership. In case of defections from the group line, the salience of national, sectoral and also demographic identities adds to the understanding of decision-making.     

Implementing EU climate and energy policies in Poland: policy feedback and reform

European Union (EU) climate/energy targets and policies are poised for the first full climate policy cycle – from adoption and implementation of the policy package for 2020, to reform for 2030. A dynamic approach to the ways in which EU policies affect policy development is developed by applying theories of domestic implementation, policy feedback and integration. Implementation experiences in Poland – the ‘least climate ambitious’ EU member state – affected Polish preferences for reformed EU policies. Existing EU policies, their ‘fit’ with Poland’s energy interests and change in anticipation of future EU policies explain much of the variation in preferences. Second, policy feedback from Poland significantly affected the EU 2030 climate and energy framework. As yet, the EU has succeeded only partly in gathering momentum through a ‘snowball’ effect whereby positive policy feedback from implementation generates further steps.     

Survey of mercury,cadmium and lead content of household batteries

The objective of this work was to provide updated information on the development of the potential impact of heavy metal containing batteries on municipal waste and battery recycling processes following transposition of the new EU Batteries Directive 2006/66/EC. A representative sample of 146 different types of commercially available dry and button cells as well as lithium-ion accumulators for mobile phones were analysed for their mercury (Hg)-, cadmium (Cd)- and lead (Pb)-contents. The methods used for preparing the cells and analysing the heavy metals Hg, Cd, and Pb were either developed during a former study or newly developed. Several batteries contained higher mass fractions of mercury or cadmium than the EU limits. Only half of the batteries with mercury and/or lead fractions above the marking thresholds were labelled. Alkaline–manganese mono-cells and Li-ion accumulators, on average, contained the lowest heavy metal concentrations, while zinc–carbon batteries, on average, contained the highest levels.     

Road Traffic Pollution Monitoring and Modelling Tools and the UK National Air Quality Strategy

This paper provides an assessment of the tools required to fulfil the air quality management role now expected of local authorities within the UK. The use of a range of pollution monitoring tools in assessing air quality is discussed and illustrated with evidence from a number of previous studies of urban background and roadside pollution monitoring in Leicester. A number of approaches to pollution modelling currently available for deployment are examined. Subsequently, the modelling and monitoring tools are assessed against the requirements of local authorities establishing air quality management areas. Whilst the paper examines UK-based policy, the study is of wider international interest.     

Comparing policies to confront permit over-allocation

Instability in cap-and-trade markets, particularly with respect to permit price collapses, has been an area of concern for regulators. To that end, several policies, including hybrid price-quantity mechanisms and the newly introduced “market stability reserve” (MSR) systems, have been introduced and even implemented in some cases. I develop a stochastic dynamic model of a cap-and-trade system, parameterized to values relevant to the European Union׳s Emission Trading System (EU ETS) to analyze the performance of these policies aimed at adding stability to the system or at least at reducing perceived over-allocations of permits. Results suggest that adaptive-allocation mechanisms such as a price collar or MSR can reduce permit over-allocations and permit price volatility in a more cost-effective manner than simply reducing scheduled permit allocations. However, it is also found that the performance of these adaptive allocation policies, and in particular the MSR, are greatly affected by assumed discount rates and policy parameters.