三“S”一体化技术在林火灾害监测中的应用初探

遥感（RS）、地理信息系统（GIS）、全球定位系统（GPS）技术在自身进一步发展的同时，正日益朝集成化、一体化方向迈进。“3S技术”一体化为林火灾害监测提供了新的极具潜力的技术支持。本文从“3S技术”一体化角度，探讨了它在未来林火监测中应用的可能性及应用模式，最后提出了建立全国林火遥感监测系统的总体设想。     

上海佘山国家森林公园空气负离子动态及其主要影响因子

以上海佘山国家森林公园为研究地,通过定点观测,对比分析了林内与空地的空气负离子在日变化和季节变化上的规律。研究结果表明:在一日内的上午、中午、下午3个时段,林内与空地的空气负离子浓度和安培空气离子评价系数(CI)值均无显著性差异;而在这3个时段,林内的空气负离子浓度和CI值均显著高于空地;季节上,林内与空地的负离子浓度、CI值以及空气清洁程度均为夏秋季大于春季大于冬季,林内和空地在夏秋两季负离子浓度和CI值都显著大于空地。同时林内的空气清洁程度在4个季节皆高于空地。通过多元回归分析得出,总悬浮颗粒物(TSP)是影响夏秋两季林内负离子浓度和CI值的主要影响因素;相对湿度是影响夏秋两季空地空气负离子浓度和CI值的主要影响因素。     

基于风暴识别算法的森林火灾识别

采用风暴识别算法对森林火灾进行了识别。首先根据参数阈值调整后的风暴识别算法,得到二维分量,结合不同云回波与火灾回波的差异,对火灾回波进行识别。根据算法对浙江省温州市三次森林火灾过程进行识别,结果显示:对于三次火灾过程都能够有效识别。对于火灾发生初期和熄灭时,由于回波强度较弱,回波结构松散,与小范围弱回波混合,导致漏识别。当回波中存在小范围地物杂波时,由于其尺度与小面积火灾接近,最终导致误识别。在森林火灾发生时,该算法可以帮助识别发生火灾的位置,为消防人员提供及时可靠的火灾地点及起火时间。     

一种基于聚类分析的由林分因子估算地表可燃物载量的方法

地表可燃物载量的确定,是实现森林地表火蔓延预测的前提。已有火蔓延模型中,假定同一林分中可燃物分布是均匀的,不能准确描述可燃物载量的复杂空间分布。基于聚类分析方法,建立了一种根据易获取的几种林分因子来估算地表可燃物载量的方法。首先,对大兴安岭地区35块兴安落叶松林样地和21块樟子松林样地的树龄、郁闭度、胸径、树高等林分因子采用重心法进行系统聚类分析,分别将兴安落叶松林和樟子松林分为5类和7类。然后,计算得出每类可燃物的类中心,并以每类包含所有样地的可燃物载量的平均值来表示该类中心的载量,并由此建立可燃物载量与林分因子的对应关系。对聚类分析与线性回归预测模型从平均绝对误差AAD、标准误差SEE、模型预测稳定性指标SIF三方面进行对比,结果表明聚类分析模型要优于线性回归分析模型。     

乌苏里江国家森林公园开发建设探讨

介绍了乌苏里江国家森林公园旅游资源概况 ,在确定公园开发建设原则的基础上 ,评价了公园的开发建设条件 ,并提出了公园开发建设措施。     

Towards a sustainable Russian forest sector

Russia's forest resources are enormous, but despite almost ten years of transition, problems are still immense, in terms of commercial output and with respect to forest management. This article suggests that one way of changing the situation is to introduce community management of forests. Using the Swedish forest commons as an example, this article argues that such a change in property rights will provide an alternative to massive privatization of the forests and to the undesirable continuation or strengthening of state forest management. Finally, it is concluded that such an introduction of new property rights regimes will not provide the solution to the problems, but rather will contribute to the establishment of a better institutional framework in the Russian forest sector.     

Water and sectoral policies in agriculture–forest frontiers: An expanded interdisciplinary research approach

Major land use changes such as deforestation and restoration influence water resources in agriculture–forest landscapes. Changes are observed in water flows, groundwater infiltration, water quality and rainfall. Interdisciplinary water–forest research has unravelled biophysical parts of the interplay that influences forest and water resources. In this Perspective paper, we propose an expanded interdisciplinary research approach to study water and policies in agriculture–forest frontiers. The approach differs in four important aspects from previous ones: (i) a conceptual ‘frontier’ understanding; an analytical focus on (ii) agriculture and (iii) policy–water linkages; (iv) empirical attention to northern and southern countries. The approach is put into practice with the “Pendulum” framework, with interventions and the agriculture–forest frontier oscillating over time between exploitation and restoration. Through the approach, a better understanding will be provided on the dynamic interplay of water and policies in oscillating agriculture–forest frontiers, with changing outcomes for people and environment.     

Understanding the Wicked Nature of “Unmanaged Recreation” in Colorado’s Front Range

Unmanaged recreation presents a challenge to both researchers and managers of outdoor recreation in the United States because it is shrouded in uncertainty resulting from disagreement over the definition of the problem, the strategies for resolving the problem, and the outcomes of management. Incomplete knowledge about recreation visitors’ values and relationships with one another, other stakeholders, and the land further complicate the problem. Uncertainty and social complexity make the unmanaged recreation issue a wicked problem. We describe the wickedness inherent in unmanaged recreation and some of the implications of wickedness for addressing the problem for the Front Range of the Rocky Mountains in Colorado. Conclusions about the nature of the problem are based on a problem appraisal that included a literature review and interviews of key informants. Addressing wickedness calls for institutional changes that allow for and reward the use of trust building, inclusive communication, and genuinely collaborative processes.     

Modelling the conversion of Colombian lowland ecosystems since 1940: drivers, patterns and rates

In biologically mega-diverse countries that are undergoing rapid human landscape transformation, it is important to understand and model the patterns of land cover change. This problem is particularly acute in Colombia, where lowland forests are being rapidly cleared for cropping and ranching. We apply a conceptual model with a nested set of a priori predictions to analyse the spatial and temporal patterns of land cover change for six 50-100 km(2) case study areas in lowland ecosystems of Colombia. Our analysis included soil fertility, a cost-distance function, and neighbourhood of forest and secondary vegetation cover as independent variables. Deforestation and forest regrowth are tested using logistic regression analysis and an information criterion approach to rank the models and predictor variables. The results show that: (a) overall the process of deforestation is better predicted by the full model containing all variables, while for regrowth the model containing only the auto-correlated neighbourhood terms is a better predictor; (b) overall consistent patterns emerge, although there are variations across regions and time; and (c) during the transformation process, both the order of importance and significance of the drivers change. Forest cover follows a consistent logistic decline pattern across regions, with introduced pastures being the major replacement land cover type. Forest stabilizes at 2-10% of the original cover, with an average patch size of 15.4 (+/-9.2)ha. We discuss the implications of the observed patterns and rates of land cover change for conservation planning in countries with high rates of deforestation.     

竖形槽道模型中火旋风的发生与旋转规律研究

火旋风是森林火灾中经常发生的一种特殊火行为。作为一种复杂的包舍化学反应的有旋流动,火旋风在不同的可燃物种类和物理条件,以及不同的环境流场条件下,会表现出复杂的动力学特征。本文设计了一个在边角对称开有缝隙的六棱柱体火旋风发生装置,探讨了火旋风特征参数的测量方法,实验模拟了火旋风的发生与发展,对火旋风的温度分布、速度和燃烧时间随燃料和环境条件的变化规律进行了比较分析。