The sustainable development oxymoron: quantifying and modelling the incompatibility of sustainable development goals

ABSTRACT

In 2015, the UN adopted a new set of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to eradicate poverty, establish socioeconomic inclusion and protect the environment. Critical voices such as the International Council for Science (ICSU), however, have expressed concerns about the potential incompatibility of the SDGs, specifically the incompatibility of socio-economic development and environmental sustainability. In this paper, we test, quantify and model the alleged inconsistency of SDGs. Our analyses show which SDGs are consistent and which are conflicting. We measure the extent of inconsistency and conclude that the SDG agenda will fail as a whole if we continue with business as usual. We further explore the nature of the inconsistencies using dynamical systems models, which reveal that the focus on economic growth and consumption as a means for development underlies the inconsistency. Our models also show that there are factors which can contribute to development (health programmes, government investment) on the one hand and ecological sustainability (renewable energy) on the other, without triggering the conflict between incompatible SDGs.     

Fostering food and energy security through by-product valorization within agricultural and agro-industrial networks: study of the province of Santiago de Cuba

ABSTRACT

The aim of this study is to investigate of how the concept of ‘integrated food and energy systems’ or IFES production networks could be applied – within the specific context of Eastern Cuba’s agricultural and agro-industrial sectors – as an innovative approach to improve food and energy security. The Province of Santiago de Cuba in southeast Cuba was the focus of this study; its existing operations, infrastructure, resource flows and scarcities, and actor relationships provide the basis of the data used for the evaluation.

The authors investigated the regional context, identify potential members of an agricultural and agro-industrial network in three municipalities of the province, and identify the main residuals and by-products of key facilities. Potential avenues for by-product valorization are investigated along with the possible influence/impacts on the sustainability of the surrounding systems and actors. A conceptual model for a regional network for integrated food and energy production is then provided based upon the development of three agricultural/agro-industrial scenarios: influence at the farm level, regional agro-industrial networks, and ‘anchor tenant’ eco-industrial systems. The main challenges and opportunities for the development of the networks are described with recommendations for addressing such where possible.     

Sharing and preparing: cross-institutional,food security-based knowledge in Canada

This study proposes a framework for the collection and management of knowledge related to food security in Canada. This paper has several goals. First, the paper summarizes the current state of food security knowledge in Canada. Second, the paper presents data from an experiment where food security issues were discussed by stakeholders at two fora, the first of which was held in western Canada and the second held in eastern Canada. Finally, based on the notes taken during and feedback received after the fora, this paper suggests a framework for organizing and managing the multiple perspectives and complex types of knowledge about food security and sustainable development from a Canadian context. Two fora were held in Canada where food security issues were presented and discussed by multiple stakeholders. Most provinces in Canada were represented in at least one of the two sessions. Sessions were designed to be informative and interactive; agenda were designed to take advantage of the needs and experiences of multiple stakeholders in both western and eastern regions of Canada. To develop the framework, the sessions were also designed to assess the types of issues and knowledge about food security in Canada. Evidence presented from this experiment supports arguments that food security work must be approached in a collaborative manner, no matter the approach or discipline. Data from fora held in western and eastern regions of Canada indicate a number of specific ways in which those along the food continuum have the desire to share knowledge and enter into partnerships to work toward secure and sustainable food systems. Data also indicate how academia and institutions of higher learning might play a key role in sharing food security-based knowledge. The data from this study suggest that academia could play a leadership role in collecting and sharing information about food security-based knowledge from all disciplinary approaches that could help collaborative in addressing the complexity of food security challenges. The framework developed in this paper could provide the guide for organizing knowledge about food security and sustainable development. The framework could be used as a map to guide understanding about the different ways in which food security can be approached and understood; this could help reduce tensions among partners in projects where a wide variety of experiences are attempting to work collaboratively. The two food security fora brought together stakeholders with specialized knowledge about food security in a Canadian context. The analysis of data arising from the fora permitted unique insights to arise about the nature of knowledge by region. The data in this study also allowed us to build a framework for food security knowledge from these regional knowledge bases. This paper suggests that academia actively take a leadership role and openly share knowledge about food security. Open sharing of knowledge will help collaborates in dealing with complex food security issues understand in-depth other approaches; this sharing may help to make explicit the tensions that arise during collaborative work.     

遥感与GIS在蝗虫生境研究中的应用进展

蝗虫生境是蝗虫赖以生活、生存的环境。利用遥感技术获取与蝗虫密切相关的各种生境因子,并结合GIS技术研究和阐明蝗虫的生境因子对东亚飞蝗的产卵、孵化、成虫、迁飞等生育周期的影响机理,是实现对蝗虫监测、预测预警的基础。文章首先分析了各种蝗虫生境因子对蝗虫发生的影响机理,认为这些生境因子对蝗灾发生的影响不是孤立地起作用的,仅靠单个生境因子进行蝗灾的预测是不全面的,而遥感和GIS技术方便的获取、管理和分析多种生境因子数据,在大尺度蝗灾发生监测和预警中起到不可替代的作用。通过对遥感与GIS在蝗虫的不同发育阶段（蝗卵发育阶段、蝗蝻发育阶段和成虫阶段）的应用及其进展的分析,认为对蝗虫不同生育阶段的遥感监测需采用不同的参数和技术才能达到更好的效果,最后提出了遥感与GIS在蝗虫生境监测方面的未来发展方向。     

基于ArcGIS Engine设计天然气管道泄漏事故后果评估系统

城市天然气管道是城市不可缺少的基础设施之一,为有效遏制天然气管道事故造成的重大灾害,需加强对应急救援系统的研究。选取高斯模型分析泄漏的天然气的扩散过程,并划分事故后果评估区域。利用ArcGIS Engine平台,设计并建立一个城市天然气管道泄漏事故的应急救援系统。利用该系统可模拟天然气管道泄漏后可能发生的气体扩散、火灾、爆炸等事故后果,通过天然气理化参数、天然气泄漏的初始状态和周围环境的气象条件,以可视化方式直观显示不同等级的事故后果评估缓冲区。     

驾驶行为模型的研究进展

驾驶员行为模型的研究对于预测和干预驾驶员的风险行为、设计相关的道路安全设施与车内设备,以及制定交通法律法规等具有重要的意义。为了解和掌握学术界关于驾驶行为模型的研究进展,搜集、筛选和归纳了1960—2010年被SCI数据库索引的相关文章,将驾驶行为模型分类为描述性模型、信息处理模型、动机模型、计划行为理论(TPB)和躯体标识假设,并对每种模型进行评述和总结,理清这些模型间的内在联系。研究发现,现有各模型只是从某个角度研究驾驶员行为的部分特征,而不能解释驾驶员的全部行为。今后应不断完善和整合各类模型,并借鉴心理学、生理学和行为科学等相关领域的理论、知识,使驾驶行为模型变得更为实用、有效。     

校园突发事件中大学生信息传播行为偏好研究

在校园突发事件中,大学生作为直接受影响方,既是危机信息的接受者,又是其传播者。大学生在突发事件情景下的信息传播行为受多方面因素影响,通过对上海、北京、广州等城市9所高等院校的303名在校大学生的问卷调查,利用离散选择模型识别影响大学生危机信息传播行为的主要因素,并预测其在传播决策、信息内容、传播对象和传播渠道上的选择概率。研究结果表明,一旦校园突发事件发生,大学生对外进行信息传播的行为是不可避免的,校方对突发事件信息的披露程度和对危机的处置措施将影响其信息传播的内容和渠道偏好。     

我国化学品安全技术说明书(SDS)的管理现状研究

从分析我国化学品安全技术说明书的监管现状出发,研究对比了我国和国外在SDS覆盖化学品的范围、审核监督制度以及信息保密机制等管理技术方面的不同做法;指出我国对化学品安全技术说明书的监管在这三方面存在缺陷和不足;提出加强和完善化学品安全技术说明书的监管是提高我国化学品安全监管水平的重要手段;认为借鉴欧盟、美国和加拿大等国家的先进做法拓宽需要编制SDS的化学品范围、建立化学品安全技术说明书第三方检测制度、加强监督、完善信息保密机制将对促进我国的化学品安全监管水平具有重要意义。     

煤矿安全生产中地质信息控制研究

经过2005年至2011年7年的煤矿资源整合,山西省煤炭行业呈现如下新的特点:矿井数目显著减少,矿井数量由原来3000多座已采煤矿减少为1000余座整合煤矿;机械化程度提高,75％以上实现机械化采煤;井型变大,升级改造基建矿井规模均达到90万吨/年以上,单独保留矿井则为30万吨/年以上;安全形势明显好转,死亡人数由400多人降为100多人;年产能由2005年6亿吨到2010年7.4亿吨;同时,由于资源整合煤矿地质技术人才短缺、安全管理低下、地质信息不清,煤矿生产事故时有发生,其中地质信息的有效性是其中重要的原因之一.采用管理学的理念加大对地质信息的动态控制是避免事故发生的有效措施.首先认真分析了有效地质信息的含义,提出了地质信息的控制原理,并从组织、动态角度指出了信息发布的重要性;然后通过分析指出了已采矿井瓦斯、水文等地质信息控制的重点.     

《化工过程安全》双语教学课程的教材体系研究

在《化工过程安全》双语教学过程中,照搬使用国外教材不符合应用型本科院校学生的实际情况,达不到双语教学的预期效果。因此,根据笔者所在应用型本科院校安全工程专业学生的英语水平、专业知识基础及国外原版化工过程安全教材内容的广度与深度,对如何构建适合于应用型本科院校安全工程专业使用的《Chemical Process Safety》双语教材的知识体系进行了研究。形成的初步讲义在双语教学实践过程中取得了较好的效果,有望在继续修改后编印成一本适合于应用型本科院校安全工程专业学生使用的《Chemical Process Safety》英文讲义。