New approach to calculate the probability of ignition

The probabilistic approach to the evaluation of fire hazard and the effectiveness of fire-precaution measures enables a rational response to the randomness of fire outbreaks. This article employs the statistical analysis methods to elucidate the causes for the ignition of fire on a random sample of industrial buildings in the Republic of Slovenia. The analyses are based on the Structural Equation Modeling (SEM), which is a well established and important statistical analysis technique in the fields of social science, biology, psychology and medicine, but hitherto rarely applied in safety research. The results of the study demonstrate that for the analyzed random sample of industrial buildings the frequency of fire outbreaks statistically significantly depends only on the presence and the probability of exposure to the heat sources (flames, sparks, and hot surfaces), but does not significantly depend on the available quantity of flammable materials within the industrial structure.     

基于重要抽样法的耐压球壳可靠性计算方法研究

目的 解决耐压球壳极小失效概率的可靠性计算问题。方法 在自适应Kriging的基础上,结合重要抽样法提出耐压球壳可靠性计算方法。该方法在较大失效概率下构建的Kriging模型基础上获得重要方向,在重要方向上计算得到较低失效概率下的设计点,以设计点为中心,构建小失效概率的Kriging模型,并通过此模型采用重要抽样法开展可靠性计算。结果 分别使用提出的重要抽样法和蒙特卡洛法计算了2个算例的失效概率,计算结果表明,该方法具有较高的精度和效率。使用该方法对某耐压球壳工作载荷下的失效概率进行了计算,计算得到该球壳失效概率为4.094×10^–96。结论 研究结果可为无失效方程下极低失效概率的可靠性计算问题提供参考。     

城市公园的冷岛效应研究——以常州市为例

在长江三角洲地区快速城市化的常州市内研究公园组成与冷岛效应的量化关系.基于Landsat 8TIRS和天地图高分辨率遥感影像提取公园指标以及冷岛效应指标.使用辐射传输方程法反演研究区的地表温度,使用ArcGIS的缓冲区分析和分段回归的方法研究每个公园的地表温度、降温范围和降温幅度作为冷岛效应指标;提取公园的周长、面积,并计算融合指数作为公园组成指标,在天地图高清遥感影像中提取公园的绿地覆盖率、水体覆盖率、不透水面覆盖率以及乔木覆盖率作为公园地表覆盖指标.通过相关性分析和回归模型研究,发现公园的面积为26hm²、周长阈值为3600m,公园的面积和周长在阈值范围内能够发挥较强的降温效率,超过阈值则降温效率下降.公园的融合指数与冷岛效应呈线性相关关系,融合指数较小的公园能获得较大的降温幅度.公园的乔木覆盖率、水体覆盖率与公园内部的地表温度呈显著相关关系,不透水面覆盖率、绿地覆盖率与公园内部的地表温度相关性不显著.公园规划设计需要结合公园的面积、周长阈值,融合指数的数值以及乔木、水体的覆盖率,充分发挥公园的冷岛效应.     

再生水回用公众参与意愿两阶段影响因素分析

污水再生利用是减少水体污染、缓解水资源供需矛盾和促进城市经济社会可持续发展的重要途径,但公众的偏见和排斥严重制约再生水处理技术的推广和发展。本文整合技术接受拓展模型和技术准备度理论,构建公众参与再生水回用意愿影响因素模型,运用结构方程模型和人工神经网络进行两阶段实证检验。研究表明：感知有用性和感知易用性对公众参与再生水回用意愿有显著正向影响;便利条件和主观规范分别对感知易用性和感知有用性起显著提升作用;技术准备度的消极因素极大地阻碍了公众再生水回用意愿的提升。基于上述结论,本文提出提升宣传的有效性,完善城市再生水配套设施及相关激励政策,联合社区、学校、企业等平台协同推进再生水处理技术推广工作等对策建议,为政府制定科学有效的干预政策,引导公众使用再生水提供重要的理论参考和实践指导。     

南水北调大型渡槽结构抗震安全性研究

阐述了南水北调中大型渡槽的抗震问题,分别介绍了基于常微分方程求解器(ODE)和有限元方法的大型渡槽动力计算模型、动力特性分析和设置铅芯橡胶支座(LRB)的隔震分析。研究表明,基于ODE求解器的解析和半解析方法有很好的精度和可靠性,可用于大型渡槽的初步设计。结合所得的研究成果,对南水北调的渡槽抗震提出了合理化建议。     

液/固相单一离子吸附体系的动力学预测模型

对四种液/固相单一离子吸附体系的动力学研究结果表明:吸附速率不仅随时间变化,也与起始离子浓度(C0)和吸附剂浓度(W0)有关;Lagergren准二级方程在给定的起始离子浓度及吸附剂浓度下具有很高的模拟精确度,但其参数随起始离子浓度和吸附剂浓度的变化而变化,且无法确定其间的函数关系;结合四组分离子吸附模型,提出了新的动力学方程,实验结果表明,新方程具有较高的模拟精确度,其参数与C0和W0具有相对稳定的函数关系,可作为液/同相单一离子吸附体系中给定C0,W0条件下吸附动力学过程的预测模型.     

事件概率计算机中的一个恒等式

本文提出了一个恒等式,并讨论了它的应用。实践证明,该恒等式可作为一个公式,且非常实用。     

Pseudomonas fluorescens Z1999降解邻苯二甲酸酯的二级动力学特征

通过驯化富集培养,从处理焦化厂废水的活性污泥中分离获得一株可以在好氧条件下利用邻苯二甲酸酯(PAEs)作为唯一碳源和能源的荧光假单胞菌(Pseudomonasfluorescens编号Z1999),研究了P.fluorescensZ1999对PAEs的降解条件,揭示了P.fluorescensZ1999降解PAEs的动力学特征.试验结果表明,P.fluorescensZ1999对PAEs降解的最佳条件为pH65—80,温度20—35℃,菌种量002—45%,富集驯化时间18—24h.P.fluorescensZ1999可有效降解邻苯二甲酸二甲酯(DMP)、邻苯二甲酸二乙酯(DEP)和邻苯二甲酸二丁酯(DnBP).在初始浓度为100—750mg·ml-1范围内,DMP,DEP,DnBP的降解反应遵循二级反应动力学方程∶-dS/dt=K2S2 K1S K0,r2=09686—09997.随PAEs浓度和支链烷基碳数的增加,P.fluorescensZ1999对PAEs的最大降解速率p下降,半衰期T1/2增大,抑制作用增强.     

二龙山水库流域生态环境与小气候的关系研究

根据不同的植被覆盖率,对二龙山水库流域进行分区,并在春季组织小气候观测,研究不同小区的小气候综合特征.分析结果表明,二龙山水库流域生态环境与小气候综合特征之间存在密切关系.      

APPLICATION OF THE GREEN-AMPT INFILTRATION EQUATION TO WATERSHED MODELING1

ABSTRACT: A computer model was developed, based on the Green-Ampt infiltration equation, to computed rainfall excess for a single precipitation event. The model requires an estimate of parameters related to hydraulic conductivity, wetting front section, and fillable porosity of the soil layers. Values of parameters were estimated from soil textural averages or regression equations based on percent sand, percent clay, and porosity. Average values of effective porosity and wetting front suction were largely acceptable due to the relatively low variability and low model sensitivity to the parameters. Hydraulic conductivity was the most erratic constituent of the loss rate computation due to the high variability and the high sensitivity of the computed infiltration to the parameter. The performance of the Green-Ampt infiltration model was tested through a comparison with the SCS curve number procedure. Seven watersheds and 23 storms with precipitation of one inch or greater were used in the comparison. For storms with less than one inch of rainfall excess, the SCS curve number procedure generally gave the best results; however, for six of the seven storms with precipitation excess greater than one inch, the Green-Ampt procedure delivered better results. In this comparison, both procedures used the same initial abstractions. The separation of rainfall losses into infiltration, interception, and surface retention is, in theory, an accurate method of estimating precipitation excess. In the second phase of the study using nine watersheds and 39 storms, interception and surface retention losses were computed by the Horton equations. Green-Ampt and interception parameters were estimated from value sin the literature, while the surface retention parameter was calibrated so that the computed runoff volumes matched observed volumes. A relationship was found between the surface retention storage capacity and the 15-day antecedent precipitation index, month of year, and precipitation amount.